Bruised-Mutton — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.06K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

180

Trades

1,091

lifetime

Volume

$53.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 09-18 14:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

100% 46% +$2,137

Sports

0% 0% -$70

Politics

0% 50% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+400	$7	1¢	$5	-$3	06-17 12:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	12	$3.0K	1,682	1,682	+0	Yes	+$262	07-06 15:42
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 65 89	18	$2.7K	1,653	1,639	+14	No	-$11	04-01 13:13
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 40 64	4	$2.7K	1,438	1,438	+0	Yes	+$149	03-16 14:21
starmer out by june 26 2026	2	$2.4K	1,700	1,700	+0	Yes	+$697	06-20 21:08
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	7	$2.4K	1,366	1,366	+0	Yes	+$226	05-19 13:43
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	2	$2.2K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	-$36	03-10 12:41
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 320 339	16	$2.1K	2,740	2,740	+0	No	+$38	02-20 15:19
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	10	$1.9K	1,565	1,565	+0	Yes	-$204	02-20 16:57
starmer out by june 22 2026	3	$1.8K	1,090	1,090	+0	Yes	-$11	06-20 10:12
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 40 64	15	$1.8K	1,080	1,080	+0	Yes	+$105	02-28 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	20	$1.7K	1,387	1,387	+0	No	-$5	07-01 14:27
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	37	$1.6K	1,044	1,044	+0	Yes	+$68	02-16 16:40
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	38	$1.5K	1,177	1,177	+0	No	+$118	02-24 16:06
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	36	$1.3K	1,875	1,875	+0	No	+$157	03-10 13:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	22	$1.3K	1,515	1,515	+0	Yes	+$83	07-03 14:37
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	7	$1.3K	670	670	+0	Yes	+$76	02-23 16:29
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	24	$990	1,075	1,075	+0	No	+$10	02-10 13:03
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	7	$981	587	587	+0	Yes	+$150	02-17 16:49
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	10	$848	774	724	+50	Yes	-$8	05-18 15:47
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	11	$840	1,540	800	+740	No	-$481	06-16 14:24
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	15	$808	548	548	+0	Yes	+$8	06-16 14:07
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 90 114	11	$765	546	546	+0	Yes	+$44	02-18 14:09
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 65 89	3	$746	558	558	+0	No	+$146	03-07 06:15
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	2	$746	550	550	+0	Yes	+$134	03-03 10:11
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	15	$704	549	549	+0	Yes	+$146	02-13 16:44
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 280 299	9	$699	690	690	+0	No	-$108	02-20 11:44
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	15	$659	1,045	845	+200	No	-$22	06-19 15:09
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 40 64	3	$658	339	339	+0	Yes	+$16	02-14 16:03
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	20	$652	770	770	+0	Yes	+$164	03-10 15:36
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	11	$617	451	451	+0	No	+$23	07-15 12:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 14:59:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xb5737a…
09-18 14:59:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xe248a7…
09-18 14:28:39	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	610	2¢	$9	0x4594f7…
09-18 14:27:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x6e4e67…
09-18 14:20:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	2¢	$6	0x8a8137…
09-18 14:20:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	614	2¢	$9	0x4ad88c…
09-18 11:51:34	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,098	0¢	$1	0x944911…
09-18 11:31:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	177	17¢	$30	0x67a2ac…
09-18 11:27:16	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	19¢	$34	0x749a36…
09-18 11:25:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	16¢	$18	0xd607c6…
09-18 10:46:13	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x570bd4…
09-18 10:42:34	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x435831…
09-18 09:09:36	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xcd0592…
09-18 09:02:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	6¢	$7	0xc1453e…
07-25 11:04:28	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25 go the distance	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x0a0b90…
07-25 08:10:01	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25 guskov win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	150	14¢	$21	0x4c7882…
07-25 08:03:25	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25	Bogdan Guskov	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0x1df265…
07-25 07:59:25	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25	Bogdan Guskov	BUY	110	19¢	$21	0xdea8ab…
07-25 07:59:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	282	2¢	$4	0x677fa7…
07-22 12:39:33	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	26¢	$27	0x2478e4…
07-22 12:36:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	26¢	$21	0xf90e15…
07-22 12:36:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0x245e2a…
07-22 12:36:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	23¢	$13	0xb90bd4…
07-22 12:36:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	23¢	$5	0x714a48…
07-22 12:34:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	376	1¢	$3	0xfacb3c…
07-22 12:32:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	14¢	$17	0xf4c69e…
07-22 12:31:06	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	1¢	$3	0xb7cd69…
07-22 12:28:55	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	293	2¢	$6	0xfe38ec…
07-22 12:28:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0x3d3df0…
07-22 12:27:28	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	33¢	$41	0xd6e7f0…
07-22 12:25:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,949	2¢	$32	0x02fb70…
07-22 12:22:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	30¢	$119	0xb94b57…
07-22 09:01:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,949	0¢	$2	0x746d33…
07-22 09:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$12	0x166b71…
07-19 21:55:54	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	104	8¢	$8	0x6e7330…
07-17 12:36:13	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x810971…
07-17 11:25:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xa93798…
07-17 11:24:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x070c6d…
07-17 11:24:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	3¢	$2	0xdd1ed8…
07-17 11:24:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	2¢	$3	0x72136b…
07-15 12:20:01	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	70¢	$8	0x7e1286…
07-15 12:19:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x3116a1…
07-15 12:17:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	71¢	$80	0xb7892a…
07-15 12:17:07	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	72¢	$73	0x6c6265…
07-15 12:16:13	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	71¢	$80	0xe97c69…
07-15 12:15:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	72¢	$9	0xdde034…
07-15 12:13:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0x3722f1…
07-15 12:10:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc91908…
07-15 12:10:05	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x61212c…
07-15 12:09:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x30703f…
07-15 12:09:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x355d0b…
07-15 12:07:16	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xe591be…
07-15 12:06:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	37¢	$28	0x33858d…
07-15 12:05:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xf0d59c…
07-15 12:01:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	53¢	$93	0x9e0c23…
07-14 17:16:07	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	139	2¢	$2	0x1347f2…
07-14 17:09:44	Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	140	5¢	$7	0x173711…
07-08 09:07:50	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	77	2¢	$2	0xd6d8b4…
07-08 08:54:25	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x65b831…
07-08 08:44:59	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xc9770c…
07-08 08:41:50	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x4edb98…
07-08 08:37:38	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x43f0f2…
07-08 08:36:17	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x37792b…
07-07 23:51:34	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x015961…
07-07 23:51:14	Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x7a3919…
07-07 22:17:19	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0xee018f…
07-07 06:59:07	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	323	1¢	$4	0x3ada2b…
07-06 15:46:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf9956e…
07-06 15:42:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	235	97¢	$228	0x6323c8…
07-06 15:41:44	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	356	97¢	$345	0xfb3df4…
07-06 15:41:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	97¢	$115	0x5067e0…
07-06 15:41:31	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	96¢	$227	0x2930ca…
07-06 15:41:31	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x066451…
07-06 15:40:56	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	95¢	$143	0x358711…
07-06 15:40:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	165	95¢	$157	0x33ecc6…
07-06 15:39:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	420	95¢	$399	0xb4e430…
07-06 14:35:01	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x186023…
07-06 14:34:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	724	81¢	$586	0x70b7d2…
07-06 14:34:22	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	80¢	$42	0xc1f9d2…
07-06 14:34:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	898	80¢	$719	0xa130bc…
07-03 14:37:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	418	96¢	$402	0x1c07b1…
07-03 14:36:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x911dd7…
07-03 11:17:37	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,202	0¢	$7	0xf8459e…
07-03 11:15:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xed190f…
07-03 11:15:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x63423d…
07-03 11:15:44	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x03d623…
07-03 11:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	84¢	$59	0x7d6875…
07-03 11:13:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	83¢	$144	0xc49687…
07-03 10:59:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	82¢	$79	0x258531…
07-02 12:40:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xd59730…
07-02 12:40:44	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	25¢	$15	0xf49ea8…
07-02 12:40:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	25¢	$30	0x25c163…
07-02 12:40:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0x53b392…
07-02 12:40:25	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	25¢	$55	0x0fc7fa…
07-02 12:40:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x6112c6…
07-02 12:18:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	27¢	$16	0x90f366…
07-02 12:17:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xcb1ac1…
07-02 08:28:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	534	25¢	$132	0x4782a2…
07-02 07:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	413	23¢	$96	0x702e7d…
07-02 07:27:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	4¢	$10	0xd40275…