Untrue-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$265

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

136

Trades

257

lifetime

Volume

$1.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 10-25 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

64% 56% -$289

Sports

15% 88% +$65

Other

14% 70% -$18

Pop-Culture

5% 75% +$4

Crypto

2% 0% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Yes		-77	-$20	4¢	$-3	+$17	05-15 13:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$197	366	366	+0	No	$0	10-07 17:55
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$185	176	176	+0	Yes	-$35	10-03 13:58
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$155	197	197	+0	No	+$5	10-03 14:00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$135	132	207	-75	Yes	-$40	09-25 21:54
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$126	89	89	+0	No	+$0	10-01 11:36
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$111	181	281	-100	Yes	-$153	10-04 04:43
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$65	37	37	+0	No	+$5	10-04 21:51
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	2	$54	34	34	+0	No	+$3	04-21 02:30
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$51	71	71	+0	Yes	+$31	07-16 11:40
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	8	$50	74	0	+74	No	-$50	10-25 16:16
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	4	$37	38	38	+0	open	—	09-10 16:11
Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	4	$30	39	39	+0	open	—	09-02 18:42
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	2	$26	35	0	+35	Yes	-$26	10-04 17:27
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$21	16	16	+0	No	+$9	07-19 00:11
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	1	$20	0	77	-77	open	—	05-15 13:59
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14 topuria win by ko tko	3	$20	29	0	+29	No	-$20	06-15 03:29
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$20	11	11	+0	No	$0	10-04 04:56
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$19	50	50	+0	No	+$1	07-12 04:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$15	50	0	+50	Yes	-$15	05-30 12:54
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	3	$15	26	12	+14	No	-$5	07-15 15:16
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	2	$14	9	9	+0	Yes	+$4	06-14 22:05
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	3	$14	18	10	+8	Yes	-$4	10-09 23:45
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$12	32	32	+0	No	+$2	07-14 21:42
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$11	15	15	+0	No	+$1	07-12 04:15
Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	2	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	10-04 04:52
O/U 1.5 Rounds	2	$10	6	6	+0	Under	+$2	05-30 12:49
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-23 14:20
Will Randolfe win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	10-04 04:55
Will Rui Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	10-04 22:53
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	10-04 21:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 16:16:41	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd8e3bd…
10-25 16:16:12	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x600bba…
10-25 16:15:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x96c6c4…
10-25 03:05:35	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xc385ad…
10-24 21:22:23	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x0ef90d…
10-24 20:31:59	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xc19d33…
10-24 14:40:53	Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xc4ad08…
10-23 20:56:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x1f43f8…
10-23 14:10:00	UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkov	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xb10c57…
10-22 16:02:59	Will Trump say "Veteran" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa20115…
10-22 01:32:14	Will Petr Yan win by KO or TKO?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xfefe50…
10-22 01:11:53	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xb6677e…
10-21 23:41:08	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x1102d9…
10-21 23:37:30	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x5cf88a…
10-21 13:39:21	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xc15ca8…
10-21 12:56:14	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa75a4f…
10-20 21:53:20	Will Trump say "Two Percent" or "2%" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	SELL	11	32¢	$3	0x6b860d…
10-20 21:53:09	Will Trump say "Veteran" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xc96992…
10-20 21:44:30	Will Trump say "Two Percent" or "2%" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xcda134…
10-19 16:52:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x31bb1f…
10-19 04:27:29	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x923b92…
10-17 16:35:45	will trump say data center during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x728a69…
10-17 16:35:21	will trump say si during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xaa85a2…
10-17 16:33:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xdfbc14…
10-17 16:32:53	will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x051b71…
10-17 16:09:32	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x91c234…
10-17 13:25:14	will trump say si during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xe1a361…
10-16 15:31:19	Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xf9d5a4…
10-16 15:24:30	Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x1219b5…
10-16 15:20:03	will trump say data center during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xd1e6c6…
10-16 15:16:15	Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc2e8d4…
10-16 12:51:07	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x0e1217…
10-16 12:32:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x6c50a2…
10-16 12:26:09	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0x470069…
10-16 12:18:49	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x96a1b7…
10-15 14:27:49	Will Trump say "Clay" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0xb43106…
10-15 13:47:32	Will Trump say "Clay" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x524287…
10-14 18:23:21	will trump say shit during his midterm rally in montana october 14	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xee580e…
10-13 14:12:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x0c2880…
10-09 23:45:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x8f204f…
10-09 23:44:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xfa2f0b…
10-09 23:43:22	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x45f96e…
10-09 23:24:04	Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5a5f4d…
10-09 19:40:22	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x6c4225…
10-09 19:36:25	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x98d214…
10-09 19:26:59	Will Trump say "Buffalo" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	No	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xc934dd…
10-09 19:02:16	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9e4479…
10-09 17:19:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x6750d1…
10-09 17:13:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc682e5…
10-09 17:12:49	gemini 4pt0 released by october 13 2026	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x376b67…
10-09 17:11:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5b12fe…
10-09 17:10:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x7056cf…
10-08 19:20:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x076d1a…
10-07 18:18:42	Will Wydad Sportif Témara win on 2026-10-08?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xccf73a…
10-07 18:16:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 8?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x91b20e…
10-07 18:15:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x217fb4…
10-07 18:13:01	Will the game go to extra innings?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x16840e…
10-07 18:10:42	Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x2f8f05…
10-07 18:09:45	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x9ac2ad…
10-07 18:07:06	Will the Labour Party candidate win 50% or more of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x412889…
10-07 18:03:31	Exact Score: FC CFR 1907 Cluj 2 - 1 FC Universitatea Cluj?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xc1acb8…
10-07 18:02:27	Exact Score: HJK Helsinki 2 - 0 Vaasan Palloseura?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x93934c…
10-07 18:00:54	Exact Score: Kuopion Palloseura 2 - 1 AC Oulu?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x115892…
10-07 18:00:03	Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 2 - 0 São Paulo FC?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x68a5b3…
10-07 17:55:57	Exact Score: IF Gnistan 0 - 1 FC Inter Turku?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6554c5…
10-07 17:55:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	233	15¢	$35	0xed172e…
10-07 15:17:23	Counter-Strike: PURE vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A	PURE	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x646fef…
10-07 12:55:22	Counter-Strike: PURE vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A	PURE	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xb0bc0b…
10-07 12:54:01	Counter-Strike: SINQU vs Orion Wanderers (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A	SINQU	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xc29f49…
10-07 12:51:10	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	FURIA	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8bcbaa…
10-07 02:49:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xd2ca2a…
10-07 02:46:03	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Chile?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa9d1db…
10-07 02:42:08	Exact Score: Chicago Fire FC 1 - 2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x178e6b…
10-07 02:41:50	Exact Score: AA Ponte Preta 1 - 2 EC Juventude?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xba08cc…
10-07 02:17:47	United States vs. Canada: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1e96f8…
10-06 17:48:57	Exact Score: AA Ponte Preta 1 - 2 EC Juventude?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x3eb017…
10-06 17:47:09	United States vs. Canada: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf986c6…
10-06 17:46:15	Exact Score: French Guiana 0 - 1 Belize?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xba5983…
10-06 17:44:14	Exact Score: IF Gnistan 0 - 1 FC Inter Turku?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xb083ec…
10-06 17:40:48	Exact Score: Chicago Fire FC 1 - 2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xe83738…
10-06 16:35:59	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 6?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0x5a6a67…
10-06 16:24:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5e41c3…
10-05 12:24:52	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x538128…
10-04 22:53:19	Will Rui Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x080e02…
10-04 21:53:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	233	17¢	$39	0xf0c291…
10-04 21:52:11	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8911db…
10-04 21:51:55	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0x97621f…
10-04 17:27:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x931520…
10-04 17:22:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xd9ad6a…
10-04 16:39:31	Will Esperidião Amin win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xe21386…
10-04 05:15:41	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcea37f…
10-04 05:07:25	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xb4426a…
10-04 04:56:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6b21b5…
10-04 04:56:04	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x823305…
10-04 04:55:44	Will Randolfe win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfaa7ca…
10-04 04:54:23	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x990831…
10-04 04:53:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x31f968…
10-04 04:53:26	Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xec66f1…
10-04 04:52:56	Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x4a0515…
10-04 04:43:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x40b0db…