Troubled-Gingerbread — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.76K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.8%

Resolved

152

Trades

825

lifetime

Volume

$296.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$360

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-12 00:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Other

76% 60% +$1,610

Sports

15% 52% -$854

Tech

6% 55% +$1,912

Politics

3% 38% +$4,090

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	121	$28.1K	20,559	20,559	+0	Yes	+$2,643	06-30 09:16
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$22.5K	14,736	14,736	+0	Yes	+$2,536	06-14 03:33
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 420 439	2	$13.7K	6,878	6,878	+0	No	+$7	01-08 16:48
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	18	$12.4K	8,629	8,629	+0	No	-$1,222	06-29 11:30
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 400 419	8	$8.3K	4,311	4,311	+0	No	+$297	03-13 15:43
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	78	$8.0K	16,961	14,656	+2,306	No	-$427	02-24 12:59
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 340 359	34	$7.5K	4,147	4,147	+0	No	+$332	02-27 02:32
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	8	$7.1K	7,185	0	+7,185	Yes	+$79	02-27 16:29
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 500 519	21	$6.8K	4,167	4,167	+0	No	+$313	01-06 05:34
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 300 319	1	$6.6K	7,479	0	+7,479	No	+$898	02-06 05:40
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	2	$6.4K	3,782	3,782	+0	Yes	+$1,097	07-09 14:07
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 115 139	2	$6.3K	6,695	0	+6,695	No	+$399	02-04 14:18
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 440 459	4	$5.9K	6,077	0	+6,077	No	+$152	01-05 12:11
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	1	$5.9K	5,922	0	+5,922	Yes	+$15	01-03 07:27
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	42	$5.7K	5,776	5,776	+0	No	-$1,552	03-15 03:14
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 180 199	2	$5.4K	2,734	2,734	+0	No	+$46	03-03 14:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$5.3K	6,592	0	+6,592	Yes	+$1,322	07-27 00:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$5.1K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	-$2,910	09-16 06:19
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 90 114	1	$5.0K	5,058	0	+5,058	Yes	+$31	03-07 16:22
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 520 539	17	$4.8K	2,692	2,692	+0	No	+$461	01-09 08:39
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	3	$4.6K	2,540	2,540	+0	Yes	+$254	01-06 14:32
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$4.6K	6,000	0	+6,000	Yes	+$1,441	03-11 15:17
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 480 499	3	$4.4K	4,409	0	+4,409	No	+$26	01-08 16:54
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	32	$4.1K	5,602	5,602	+0	No	-$2,145	03-12 08:22
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 40 64	2	$4.1K	4,199	0	+4,199	Yes	+$126	02-07 14:46
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$3.5K	5,745	5,745	+0	No	-$172	03-06 05:55
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$393	06-10 04:36
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 115 139	3	$3.0K	1,537	1,537	+0	Yes	+$27	02-09 17:05
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$3.0K	3,297	0	+3,297	Yes	+$297	07-01 02:49
Spurs vs. Thunder	11	$3.0K	10,300	8,300	+2,000	Thunder	+$434	05-27 02:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 00:59:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	SELL	10,000	8¢	$800	0x3911d4…
09-16 06:19:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9,000	12¢	$1,080	0x961492…
08-28 15:31:27	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	10,000	12¢	$1,200	0x7d6825…
08-28 15:28:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	51¢	$2,040	0xa33243…
08-28 15:27:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	13¢	$520	0x351479…
08-24 02:02:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,000	25¢	$1,000	0x399cf9…
08-01 14:57:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	96¢	$360	0x76f5d0…
08-01 03:53:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	39¢	$1,950	0xccd5c3…
07-30 00:56:03	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	27¢	$34	0xa8bf22…
07-27 00:05:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,592	80¢	$5,270	0x79293a…
07-18 13:13:42	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,000	57¢	$1,146	0x3d1feb…
07-15 01:02:46	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	36¢	$355	0x1969a9…
07-15 01:02:32	Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	250	17¢	$42	0xebd517…
07-12 03:17:47	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$105	0x48f8b1…
07-11 23:00:22	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	1,100	1¢	$9	0x6bcb5d…
07-11 21:49:58	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	83	3¢	$2	0x107bda…
07-11 21:49:58	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	607	3¢	$18	0x0f3027…
07-11 21:49:44	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xf2283d…
07-11 21:49:44	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	543	4¢	$22	0x38ecc6…
07-10 02:11:10	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	2,000	23¢	$455	0x1c9d8d…
07-09 14:37:59	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x7abdff…
07-09 14:37:34	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$55	0xa9c8c4…
07-09 14:08:35	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	1,000	62¢	$615	0xcf5b0a…
07-09 14:07:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	SELL	3,782	99¢	$3,740	0x2fbb19…
07-07 00:58:46	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x673e58…
07-06 12:47:34	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	1,000	39¢	$390	0x5811e2…
07-06 00:03:56	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	3,782	70¢	$2,643	0xafdced…
07-06 00:01:47	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	520	32¢	$166	0x54630b…
07-03 23:58:58	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0x33bbc2…
07-03 00:51:28	Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	SELL	250	69¢	$172	0xdfed62…
07-02 13:10:31	Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	BUY	250	13¢	$32	0x6b0308…
07-02 13:08:47	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?	Yes	BUY	250	11¢	$28	0x1f6cfa…
07-02 13:06:29	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	SELL	800	6¢	$48	0xd6b9a0…
07-02 13:00:14	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	BUY	800	7¢	$56	0xb7a131…
07-02 01:35:17	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Yes	SELL	500	19¢	$95	0xccb58a…
07-02 00:34:07	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x8bc018…
07-01 02:49:34	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	3,297	91¢	$3,000	0xc9043a…
07-01 00:24:56	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	3,371	1¢	$27	0xf502f6…
07-01 00:21:04	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0x5cb135…
07-01 00:20:55	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0xfe51a7…
07-01 00:20:55	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	2,329	1¢	$19	0x514074…
06-30 13:55:07	Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Norway?	Yes	BUY	2,640	4¢	$100	0xd25968…
06-30 09:16:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	12,000	93¢	$11,170	0xa1368c…
06-29 14:15:49	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x245ab2…
06-29 14:15:44	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x43d2dd…
06-29 14:15:44	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	993	68¢	$675	0x0f8c4c…
06-29 14:14:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x849f52…
06-29 14:14:22	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x0cfbaa…
06-29 14:14:07	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xf6fe0b…
06-29 14:14:07	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0xa4cf85…
06-29 14:13:52	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0xe17eb8…
06-29 14:13:50	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x9a76a3…
06-29 14:13:19	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	108	68¢	$73	0x8d5f3c…
06-29 14:12:43	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	203	68¢	$138	0xe914c7…
06-29 14:12:43	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	75	68¢	$51	0x9c8296…
06-29 14:12:43	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	122	68¢	$83	0x50e796…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xf965b5…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	133	68¢	$90	0xba9f25…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x96d95b…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	133	68¢	$91	0x7ad451…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x78d2a5…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	80	68¢	$54	0x704922…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x1e67b4…
06-29 14:12:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x19f977…
06-29 14:12:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x9f2693…
06-29 14:12:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xc4905c…
06-29 14:12:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	98	68¢	$66	0x790aa5…
06-29 14:12:13	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x8461fe…
06-29 14:12:13	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x13e8fb…
06-29 14:12:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xee5d0a…
06-29 14:11:55	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0xa8c098…
06-29 14:11:53	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xf5a75b…
06-29 14:11:53	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x2b428d…
06-29 14:11:35	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x2f3450…
06-29 14:11:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xc073e4…
06-29 14:11:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x49467d…
06-29 14:11:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x0237b8…
06-29 14:11:22	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0xddea7a…
06-29 14:11:22	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x54735d…
06-29 14:11:22	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x07e1f8…
06-29 14:11:20	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x841d83…
06-29 14:09:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xab7023…
06-29 14:09:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x60009e…
06-29 14:09:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x3deb9f…
06-29 14:09:35	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x5b845c…
06-29 14:08:31	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x1cd6e3…
06-29 14:07:08	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xe78ed1…
06-29 14:07:08	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x2427f2…
06-29 14:07:04	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	3,825	68¢	$2,601	0x72e44c…
06-29 14:06:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	1,413	68¢	$961	0xeec2e8…
06-29 14:06:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x4d745a…
06-29 14:06:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x1bd052…
06-29 14:06:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xb92ea3…
06-29 14:06:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x8b3d47…
06-29 14:06:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x3fd5e8…
06-29 14:05:04	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xccbc12…
06-29 14:05:04	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x6b3f4a…
06-29 14:05:04	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x4fe60f…
06-29 14:04:49	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x780055…
06-29 14:04:49	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x50db93…