Even-Terminology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$324

Unrealized P&L

-$70

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$5.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$50

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-30 06:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

69% 57% -$53

Politics

31% 70% -$263

Sports

1% 36% -$3

Crypto

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+221	$120	22¢	$50	-$70	08-30 06:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$614	314	314	+0	Yes	+$13	04-28 03:12
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	8	$531	604	0	+604	Yes	+$73	02-02 12:09
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$500	544	0	+544	Yes	+$43	01-09 05:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$346	191	191	+0	No	+$35	05-31 02:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$313	381	0	+381	Yes	+$68	07-28 06:40
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	8	$261	151	151	+0	No	+$19	06-20 03:42
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$223	285	0	+285	Yes	-$223	02-28 03:51
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	3	$220	120	120	+0	No	+$18	02-21 01:36
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$184	100	100	+0	No	+$14	02-28 03:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$181	317	0	+317	No	-$181	08-10 15:37
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$143	75	75	+0	No	+$7	02-23 05:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	4	$120	221	0	+221	open	—	08-30 06:40
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$111	152	0	+152	Yes	-$111	06-17 02:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$110	61	61	+0	No	+$9	02-20 03:43
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	3	$109	100	50	+50	No	+$7	01-15 03:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$109	0	111	-111	Yes	-$2	06-01 03:45
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	4	$107	57	57	+0	Yes	+$6	06-15 02:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$100	147	0	+147	Yes	+$47	08-02 08:34
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$100	122	0	+122	Yes	-$100	02-28 05:16
starmer out by june 22 2026	1	$99	132	0	+132	Yes	-$99	06-20 19:42
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	3	$90	50	50	+0	No	+$8	02-27 02:17
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$89	50	50	+0	No	+$8	05-13 03:40
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for the netherlands by feburary 1	2	$86	50	50	+0	No	+$12	01-24 02:35
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	1	$83	90	0	+90	No	+$7	01-15 11:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	2	$77	40	40	+0	No	+$3	05-30 04:22
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1	$76	100	0	+100	No	+$24	01-29 06:29
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	2	$72	40	40	+0	No	+$7	01-22 08:15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	2	$68	37	37	+0	No	+$6	05-28 05:00
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$66	100	0	+100	No	+$34	01-16 08:43
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for the united kingdom by feburary 1	2	$62	40	34	+6	No	+$11	01-23 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 06:40:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x0fe7c1…
08-10 15:37:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x74b9b5…
08-06 10:27:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	53¢	$30	0x4546b9…
08-03 13:05:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	69	57¢	$39	0xc3c083…
08-03 12:38:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0xbd94e1…
08-03 10:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x161d37…
08-03 08:30:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xe24ce1…
08-02 08:34:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	113	68¢	$77	0x4c5781…
08-02 03:30:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xf65cec…
08-01 10:23:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xe67c7c…
07-31 09:11:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xe6d706…
07-28 06:40:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	105	72¢	$75	0xf10e1b…
07-09 01:52:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x194379…
07-09 01:52:13	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x8df870…
07-08 11:21:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	62¢	$20	0x618b0a…
06-20 19:42:40	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	132	75¢	$99	0x47402d…
06-20 04:53:40	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x9fb2f5…
06-20 03:42:49	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	151	93¢	$140	0x83334a…
06-17 19:10:07	starmer out by october 31 2026	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x022bb3…
06-17 02:26:12	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xd07b85…
06-16 06:29:48	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x79e121…
06-16 06:29:19	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xfd4a65…
06-16 06:27:45	Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xc617a1…
06-16 06:27:33	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x68ab62…
06-16 06:27:21	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x7234e4…
06-16 06:26:55	Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xd001f4…
06-16 06:26:36	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x1f4e7d…
06-15 02:02:34	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0x796fb7…
06-08 13:55:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	83¢	$51	0xbd26a3…
06-08 13:41:33	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xa9dd56…
06-01 18:26:57	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x64c212…
06-01 13:25:46	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x8daaca…
06-01 09:33:54	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0x73bc36…
06-01 07:30:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	91¢	$32	0x14c1a7…
06-01 07:30:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xccd329…
06-01 07:29:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x0241ec…
06-01 07:28:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xf144be…
06-01 07:28:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x23bb73…
06-01 06:52:33	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x70a5c7…
06-01 06:12:49	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xe31e84…
06-01 04:15:48	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	88¢	$22	0xc231ce…
06-01 03:45:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	111	98¢	$109	0xc42973…
05-31 19:24:23	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0xefdb91…
05-31 18:40:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x42e09f…
05-31 18:25:18	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	85¢	$41	0x2a576b…
05-31 17:20:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xc43513…
05-31 02:14:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	191	100¢	$190	0x8305b7…
05-31 02:13:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xa3e253…
05-30 07:22:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x7a1f5b…
05-30 07:05:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0xd7ee7f…
05-30 04:22:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x2632c8…
05-30 04:21:10	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0xa15df9…
05-29 06:39:27	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xc8b459…
05-29 02:50:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x615b64…
05-28 23:08:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x0e6ba3…
05-28 09:10:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xb409d0…
05-28 05:00:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x72607b…
05-26 04:06:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	37	83¢	$31	0xe6a6d9…
05-21 19:56:00	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0xd8b0fe…
05-21 00:05:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$51	0xfa27e0…
05-20 23:39:01	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x621ebe…
05-20 17:42:01	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7ca633…
05-20 07:34:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x88d565…
05-20 03:33:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xb05c68…
05-20 02:19:51	Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0xba13d7…
05-19 07:21:57	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	70	88¢	$62	0xd83e9f…
05-18 01:47:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x12c6af…
05-17 23:24:14	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x663aaa…
05-16 11:22:10	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd47681…
05-16 02:24:26	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xe17012…
05-14 13:41:54	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x735275…
05-13 03:43:50	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x73902f…
05-13 03:40:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x51ad8f…
05-11 02:21:05	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xcd034b…
05-11 00:07:23	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	105	0¢	$0	0x8b1e23…
05-11 00:07:12	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xba75e3…
05-11 00:07:02	Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	59	0¢	$0	0x85972a…
05-10 21:39:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	29	9¢	$2	0x158b27…
05-07 08:34:58	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x0f92c4…
05-07 07:12:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0xc8ed0e…
05-04 21:02:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8c285d…
05-04 20:40:36	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe02118…
05-04 19:42:44	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x4294ba…
05-04 19:41:56	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	57	73¢	$41	0xd616b8…
05-04 04:28:58	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf0eced…
05-03 13:25:18	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8d189a…
05-03 02:48:32	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x00d75a…
05-01 20:29:06	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x508405…
05-01 20:16:04	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x16fc01…
05-01 20:10:04	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf9d8cf…
05-01 20:09:48	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xdf6840…
05-01 20:09:42	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xbfa0cb…
05-01 20:09:36	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xc8b592…
05-01 20:09:26	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x1d094f…
05-01 20:09:22	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x7828aa…
05-01 20:09:14	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x085392…
05-01 20:07:18	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x18efc5…
05-01 20:07:14	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x462750…
05-01 12:32:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x8a031e…
05-01 12:32:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xd0094f…