Rough-Urgency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.67K

Unrealized P&L

-$57

Hit rate

55.6%

Resolved

748

Trades

10,947

lifetime

Volume

$3.46M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$316

Open exposure

$477

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-15 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 61% -$482

Other

36% 41% -$558

Politics

3% 43% +$5,058

Sports

1% 49% +$1,655

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-15).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Yes		+667	$533	72¢	$477	-$57	08-15 14:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	21	$178.1K	89,607	89,607	+0	No	-$69	01-20 09:55
will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	209	$174.3K	87,375	87,370	+5	No	+$8	01-29 00:57
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	240	$156.1K	79,954	76,872	+3,083	No	+$28	02-21 01:14
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	399	$154.4K	77,590	77,562	+28	No	+$21	02-19 05:44
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	57	$141.8K	71,107	71,107	+0	No	-$62	01-26 07:35
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	57	$140.8K	70,683	70,683	+0	No	-$32	01-03 13:30
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	114	$109.0K	56,432	53,234	+3,197	No	+$27	02-19 05:28
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	260	$104.2K	52,231	52,244	-13	No	+$11	01-28 10:33
will ethereum reach 3800 in february 2026	173	$99.4K	48,834	50,951	-2,117	No	-$11	02-25 13:01
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	211	$93.4K	46,780	46,780	+0	No	+$30	01-31 06:26
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	96	$93.1K	46,616	46,919	-304	No	$0	02-19 14:25
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	169	$92.1K	46,251	46,251	+0	No	+$7	02-14 20:03
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	36	$90.8K	45,563	45,563	+0	No	-$1	01-02 11:36
will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	118	$75.8K	38,061	38,061	+0	No	$0	02-18 05:46
will bitcoin reach 120k in january 2026	52	$64.8K	32,500	32,500	+0	No	+$0	01-28 03:24
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	98	$63.1K	39,768	23,453	+16,315	No	+$26	01-31 12:09
will israel nuke iran by january 31	133	$59.4K	29,806	29,806	+0	No	-$1	01-22 08:48
will ethereum reach 3600 in february 2026	64	$48.8K	22,997	26,062	-3,065	No	+$1	02-26 13:21
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	48	$48.2K	28,704	19,728	+8,976	No	+$69	02-03 06:28
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	76	$46.1K	23,185	23,185	+0	No	+$9	02-10 11:07
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	99	$45.3K	23,925	21,622	+2,303	No	+$24	02-13 07:40
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	186	$44.4K	22,346	22,346	+0	No	-$12	03-14 13:50
will solana reach 190 in february 2026	14	$41.4K	20,758	20,758	+0	No	+$0	02-19 11:45
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	173	$41.2K	20,720	20,720	+0	No	+$0	02-09 05:05
will bitcoin reach 95k in february 2026	52	$34.5K	17,302	17,302	+0	No	+$0	02-25 11:37
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	5	$30.0K	14,998	14,998	+0	No	-$15	01-25 15:56
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	10	$28.0K	9,009	19,009	-10,000	No	-$29	01-02 12:10
will bitcoin reach 115k in january 2026	18	$27.2K	13,432	13,835	-402	No	+$7	01-25 13:09
will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	87	$25.9K	13,027	13,027	+0	No	+$0	03-15 05:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	75	$25.3K	12,778	12,778	+0	No	+$0	03-10 06:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 14:32:34	Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xe52dee…
08-15 10:09:16	Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Yes	BUY	687	80¢	$549	0xb25c4d…
08-14 10:36:15	lol t1 dk 2026 08 14	T1	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xd8aa89…
08-14 10:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc1e3d3…
08-14 10:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0a45e2…
08-14 10:06:04	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xa0b163…
08-14 10:06:04	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0d4aa4…
08-14 10:06:04	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0aefae…
08-14 10:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xd20a28…
08-14 10:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x1c1446…
08-14 10:05:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x79b35e…
08-14 10:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x997ca9…
08-14 10:05:01	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x4701e0…
08-14 09:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0x7278e6…
08-13 16:19:54	next google gemini flash model released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x283923…
08-13 16:19:30	next google gemini flash model released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x0ae960…
08-13 16:19:28	next google gemini flash model released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0x12eb8c…
08-13 13:57:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x1fcbf1…
08-13 13:52:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x9c15b8…
08-13 13:52:51	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xbfd56a…
08-13 10:31:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	110	68¢	$75	0x1c98b2…
08-13 09:42:13	Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x29ed34…
08-13 09:31:18	Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	678	71¢	$482	0x492f16…
08-13 08:38:45	Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	678	71¢	$482	0x075830…
08-13 08:33:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	110	52¢	$57	0xed23ab…
08-13 08:13:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	110	47¢	$52	0xdeeb3e…
08-13 08:01:42	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xf980f9…
08-13 06:13:22	Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0x193631…
08-12 13:49:24	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x0d9367…
08-12 13:47:22	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?	No	SELL	49	82¢	$41	0x1bed14…
08-12 13:23:31	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0x58b8d1…
08-12 13:09:37	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?	Yes	SELL	538	72¢	$387	0xc7646a…
08-12 12:38:30	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0xd7489a…
08-12 12:23:42	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?	Yes	BUY	538	72¢	$387	0x3e9d3d…
08-12 12:18:27	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	55	40¢	$22	0x67cf7b…
08-12 12:18:00	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe42a35…
08-12 12:14:48	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x7acefc…
08-12 12:06:03	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	SELL	60	46¢	$28	0x84cfed…
08-12 11:31:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0xeaf09c…
08-12 11:20:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	39	42¢	$16	0x90aa4f…
08-12 09:52:18	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?	No	BUY	39	81¢	$32	0x89ec93…
08-12 09:49:46	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xe37c43…
08-12 06:30:46	Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	SELL	665	99¢	$660	0xfdefbd…
08-11 22:42:52	Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	BUY	665	68¢	$452	0x5f2acb…
08-11 15:11:15	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	627	72¢	$452	0xcb6167…
08-11 15:04:31	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xd6123f…
08-11 13:53:30	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	8	72¢	$5	0xac5a62…
08-11 13:53:30	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	621	72¢	$447	0x7b965a…
08-11 13:30:16	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	13	73¢	$9	0xebc1c6…
08-11 13:12:24	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xa0fe70…
08-11 13:11:49	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0xb7d3ee…
08-11 13:05:55	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x5f68b8…
08-11 12:52:30	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xc135a3…
08-11 12:47:52	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xad0d75…
08-11 12:47:13	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	101	73¢	$74	0x04949d…
08-11 11:55:09	Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	340	72¢	$245	0xc55864…
08-11 11:21:54	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x042586…
08-11 11:21:49	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	85	56¢	$48	0x6ac0a2…
08-11 09:24:58	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x51c5b9…
08-11 09:24:19	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x32bb2a…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0xd09012…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xcb4ddc…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x3ca125…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x2e064d…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	92	50¢	$46	0x2ce417…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x038567…
08-11 09:15:28	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x008b76…
08-11 09:10:00	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	96	50¢	$48	0x1b666d…
08-11 09:09:58	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xe6d9ad…
08-11 09:09:58	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4ae208…
08-11 09:09:58	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x443373…
08-11 09:09:58	spy up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x36e210…
08-06 00:41:29	Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	No	SELL	151	60¢	$91	0x7afa19…
08-06 00:40:30	Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	No	SELL	216	60¢	$130	0x55d706…
08-05 12:00:48	Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	No	BUY	367	60¢	$219	0xe4cbb9…
07-27 13:51:33	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	233	90¢	$209	0xbd3f8b…
07-27 12:30:03	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	145	88¢	$128	0xbe9593…
07-27 12:21:03	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	88	88¢	$78	0x3ac1b1…
07-27 11:50:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	228	90¢	$206	0xb15447…
07-27 09:10:40	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	228	87¢	$199	0xe1a41c…
07-27 08:42:46	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	108	88¢	$95	0xe40d8a…
07-27 07:47:51	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	108	87¢	$95	0x3c9555…
07-05 14:40:40	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20,610	3¢	$680	0x0024ee…
07-05 09:48:59	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 spread home 1pt5	Norway	SELL	10,558	70¢	$7,391	0x839dab…
07-05 09:37:53	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 spread home 1pt5	Norway	BUY	10,558	70¢	$7,391	0x93b292…
07-03 00:34:35	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10,019	6¢	$578	0xece230…
07-01 07:48:37	wti up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0x7263a0…
07-01 07:47:10	wti up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0x4ba610…
07-01 07:44:20	wti up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x067cc7…
07-01 07:41:37	wti up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	884	25¢	$221	0x0d1913…
06-19 02:39:34	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x4756ff…
06-14 05:05:42	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20,610	1¢	$289	0x343448…
06-05 08:18:34	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	74	20¢	$15	0x59c2d5…
06-05 07:27:07	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	74	15¢	$11	0xb2f98a…
06-05 07:14:45	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x4e66b9…
06-05 06:57:00	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x18ded8…
06-05 06:55:21	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0xf8b0be…
06-05 06:49:00	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	17	20¢	$3	0x7b79e9…
06-05 06:46:57	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0x3a04bc…
06-05 06:06:31	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xec31aa…