Grounded-Kimono — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.43K

Unrealized P&L

+$213

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved

137

Trades

497

lifetime

Volume

$91.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$184

Open exposure

$1.55K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-28 15:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Other

73% 64% +$1,382

Sports

23% 57% +$235

Politics

3% 67% +$101

Crypto

1% 50% -$284

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+757	$700	94¢	$708	+$8	10-16 16:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+707	$450	66¢	$470	+$20	10-16 17:05
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+530	$350	70¢	$369	+$19	10-07 20:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	+227	$50	2¢	$5	-$45	10-28 00:34
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$211	75¢	$0	+$211	10-28 15:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	27	$11.0K	7,572	6,174	+1,398	Yes	+$510	07-29 13:47
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	24	$8.4K	4,401	4,401	+0	Yes	+$436	05-17 23:37
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$4.0K	4,036	0	+4,036	Yes	+$36	01-26 03:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	12	$3.6K	2,538	2,538	+0	Yes	+$105	10-28 00:33
will matthew stafford win the 202526 nfl mvp award	13	$3.5K	1,715	1,965	-249	Yes	+$156	02-06 03:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	17	$3.2K	4,017	1,870	+2,148	Yes	+$43	09-16 00:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$3.0K	1,546	1,546	+0	Yes	+$35	04-21 00:39
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$3.0K	3,015	0	+3,015	Yes	+$15	03-18 01:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	13	$2.7K	1,554	1,554	+0	No	+$123	07-31 01:12
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	14	$2.4K	1,198	1,326	-128	No	+$144	04-04 22:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	9	$2.2K	1,439	1,034	+405	No	+$190	08-29 00:22
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,533	1,533	+0	open	—	10-28 15:08
Fed rate hike in 2026?	10	$1.8K	1,667	833	+833	Yes	+$625	09-16 00:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	6	$1.7K	903	903	+0	No	+$72	08-28 02:12
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	3	$1.5K	825	825	+0	No	+$44	07-26 22:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	7	$1.4K	785	785	+0	No	+$153	05-25 18:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	5	$1.3K	762	762	+0	Yes	+$5	05-18 00:54
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	14	$1.2K	1,418	0	+1,418	Yes	+$268	10-28 00:33
will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	4	$1.1K	628	628	+0	No	+$70	08-14 23:14
will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	2	$1.0K	543	543	+0	No	+$36	07-26 22:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$1.0K	521	521	+0	Yes	+$16	06-10 01:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	7	$991	758	756	+2	Yes	-$259	04-30 02:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	4	$977	558	558	+0	No	+$77	07-28 01:19
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	7	$964	576	576	+0	No	+$114	03-25 11:22
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$947	638	638	+0	No	-$53	07-19 21:04
will wti reach 80 in august 2026 from august 4	5	$922	738	494	+244	Yes	+$166	08-10 11:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	9	$903	669	669	+0	Yes	+$3	10-16 17:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$880	667	667	+0	No	-$120	09-11 01:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$857	469	469	+0	Yes	+$57	02-04 03:13
will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	4	$851	474	474	+0	No	+$51	09-26 01:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:08:20	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	383	80¢	$307	0xf9a83e…
10-28 00:37:20	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	383	75¢	$287	0xd52be4…
10-28 00:36:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in November?	Yes	BUY	144	52¢	$75	0x8a11f8…
10-28 00:34:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x29e356…
10-28 00:33:39	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x133a74…
10-28 00:33:29	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x76770a…
10-28 00:33:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	220	96¢	$211	0x6f8f8a…
10-28 00:32:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	661	96¢	$634	0x93db5f…
10-27 01:18:24	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	383	75¢	$287	0x8870f2…
10-27 01:16:41	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	383	73¢	$280	0x8ac017…
10-26 23:55:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	534	94¢	$500	0xd38bb8…
10-26 23:52:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	240	84¢	$200	0xc3b06d…
10-26 23:51:53	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	180	83¢	$150	0x9a096e…
10-23 01:56:47	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	245	82¢	$200	0x3d68c2…
10-23 01:56:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	348	93¢	$323	0xd9f060…
10-21 02:41:56	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x671d0d…
10-21 02:41:24	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x59f852…
10-21 02:40:56	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	140	71¢	$100	0x7656e1…
10-20 00:02:08	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x1ee7f7…
10-20 00:02:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	54	82¢	$44	0x104b09…
10-20 00:00:15	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x8747b4…
10-20 00:00:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xc9ce72…
10-19 23:59:57	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xb043af…
10-19 23:59:45	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x2920f4…
10-19 23:59:14	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	70¢	$200	0xa1c256…
10-19 23:58:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xad200c…
10-16 17:08:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	132	88¢	$116	0x442481…
10-16 17:05:19	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	238	63¢	$150	0xa669f5…
10-16 17:02:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xfa0f70…
10-16 17:02:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x6fbd58…
10-16 17:01:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	65	88¢	$57	0x4395b8…
10-16 17:01:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	89	85¢	$76	0xc3b23a…
10-16 17:01:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	138	85¢	$117	0xaeb103…
10-16 16:46:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	460	87¢	$400	0x5b0a0f…
10-16 16:46:04	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x5c2150…
10-16 16:43:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xc9191b…
10-07 20:50:47	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x41f3a8…
10-07 20:49:26	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	379	66¢	$250	0x8c225a…
10-07 20:48:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	215	28¢	$60	0xaf8121…
10-02 00:49:53	will wti reach 100 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	439	57¢	$250	0x8930c6…
10-02 00:46:57	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	409	61¢	$250	0xc272ef…
10-02 00:46:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	670	24¢	$161	0x036a56…
09-30 00:29:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	654	55¢	$360	0x1e29c1…
09-29 18:24:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	654	50¢	$327	0x014224…
09-26 01:48:45	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0x432807…
09-26 01:48:24	will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	No	SELL	237	98¢	$231	0x968cea…
09-26 01:48:00	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	337	59¢	$199	0x71cf20…
09-25 01:32:56	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	337	54¢	$180	0xd2d0cb…
09-23 02:00:19	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	139	54¢	$75	0xea3858…
09-23 01:59:44	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0x6809d4…
09-23 01:58:49	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	476	63¢	$300	0x4c7745…
09-23 01:57:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x5d8847…
09-22 01:01:01	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	469	64¢	$300	0x2193ca…
09-22 01:00:43	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x3943b0…
09-19 20:17:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	SELL	237	93¢	$220	0x61aaa7…
09-19 20:15:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	455	44¢	$200	0x4da721…
09-19 20:14:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	SELL	275	98¢	$269	0x5cbd32…
09-17 02:45:48	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x107bef…
09-17 02:45:16	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	375	67¢	$250	0x5edca0…
09-17 02:41:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x14b355…
09-17 02:40:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	455	55¢	$250	0xdc52a4…
09-16 00:36:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0xa46aa5…
09-16 00:34:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x39bc3f…
09-16 00:33:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	833	95¢	$792	0x70ceac…
09-15 01:59:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0xa556fb…
09-15 01:59:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x52ab36…
09-14 02:01:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x6774a3…
09-12 01:35:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	223	37¢	$82	0x8836fd…
09-12 01:34:27	will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x832e8b…
09-12 01:33:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x13145b…
09-12 01:32:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x570503…
09-11 02:04:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0xc5dac9…
09-11 02:03:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	300	83¢	$250	0xf423ff…
09-11 01:58:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	167	36¢	$60	0x33aee1…
09-10 01:13:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	BUY	241	83¢	$200	0x6aedbe…
09-10 01:11:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xbf0c7b…
09-04 00:55:00	Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	BUY	282	35¢	$100	0x94fd80…
09-04 00:53:12	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	129	58¢	$75	0xcd649c…
09-04 00:52:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x5aab8c…
09-04 00:52:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	167	56¢	$93	0x277aca…
09-03 00:45:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xc3efea…
08-31 02:30:51	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x986684…
08-31 02:30:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x13d772…
08-29 00:24:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x5bb15c…
08-29 00:23:21	will wti reach 85 in august 2026 from august 26	No	BUY	112	67¢	$75	0x96ef5c…
08-29 00:22:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	SELL	405	98¢	$398	0xaa35ce…
08-28 02:13:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	SELL	270	97¢	$262	0xf89d6c…
08-28 02:12:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	SELL	226	99¢	$223	0xa63f9c…
08-28 02:09:55	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	338	74¢	$250	0xb29dc4…
08-28 02:09:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x407258…
08-28 02:08:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$99	0xdd5b40…
08-26 02:35:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	333	68¢	$227	0xbde9e5…
08-25 02:07:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	SELL	226	96¢	$216	0x9005ee…
08-25 02:06:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	SELL	451	96¢	$433	0xb2d5b5…
08-25 02:06:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	SELL	105	62¢	$65	0x0c652f…
08-25 02:06:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	SELL	360	90¢	$325	0x612b1d…
08-25 02:05:36	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 24	Yes	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0xe3afa9…
08-25 02:05:18	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 24	Yes	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0xeecec2…
08-25 02:04:04	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 24	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x810465…
08-25 01:58:48	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 24	Yes	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x54a7f4…