Old-Marmalade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$273

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$212

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-07 09:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 100% +$129

Politics

15% 100% +$128

Tech

1% 100% +$13

Other

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		-2	-$2	98¢	$-2	$0	09-01 14:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$1.3K	748	900	-152	Yes	+$120	02-27 13:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	2	$1.0K	591	460	+131	No	+$0	05-26 10:26
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$745	400	400	+0	No	+$5	02-16 22:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	1	$590	591	0	+591	Yes	+$1	05-05 13:16
bitcoin above 66k on march 24	1	$581	582	0	+582	Yes	+$1	03-24 14:39
bitcoin above 76k on march 20	1	$580	581	0	+581	No	+$2	03-19 17:14
ethereum above 1700 on march 18	1	$579	580	0	+580	Yes	+$1	03-17 12:45
bitcoin above 70k on march 16	3	$574	579	0	+579	Yes	+$5	03-16 11:18
bitcoin above 58k on march 14	1	$573	574	0	+574	Yes	+$1	03-13 10:39
ethereum above 1600 on march 12	1	$572	573	0	+573	Yes	+$1	03-11 15:47
bitcoin above 68k on march 10	1	$572	572	0	+572	Yes	+$1	03-10 14:47
bitcoin above 72k on march 6	1	$571	573	0	+573	No	+$2	03-06 14:55
will bitcoin dip to 60k on march 9	1	$571	572	0	+572	No	+$1	03-09 15:53
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$534	537	0	+537	No	+$3	02-10 14:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 15:45 UTC	1	$526	543	0	+543	Up	+$16	02-16 15:49
bitcoin above 78k on february 5	1	$466	467	0	+467	No	+$0	02-05 14:46
will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 31	1	$465	466	0	+466	No	+$1	01-31 16:49
bitcoin above 86k on january 27	1	$464	465	0	+465	Yes	+$1	01-27 16:17
bitcoin above 70k on february 9	2	$334	417	0	+417	Yes	+$83	02-09 16:55
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 7?	1	$154	154	0	+154	No	+$0	10-07 09:45
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 September 28-October 4?	1	$153	153	0	+153	No	+$0	10-03 14:53
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?	1	$153	153	0	+153	No	+$0	09-30 15:33
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?	1	$153	154	0	+154	Yes	+$1	10-06 10:49
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 September 14-20?	1	$152	152	0	+152	No	+$0	09-19 01:44
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9?	1	$152	152	0	+152	Yes	+$0	09-09 15:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 21-27?	1	$152	153	0	+153	No	+$1	09-26 10:29
ethereum above 2800 on september 5 2026	1	$152	152	0	+152	No	+$0	09-05 03:19
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 3?	1	$152	152	0	+152	No	+$0	09-04 00:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 3?	1	$151	151	0	+151	No	+$0	09-02 20:16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 1?	1	$150	151	0	+151	Yes	+$1	09-01 14:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 09:45:23	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 7?	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x4701e8…
10-06 10:49:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	154	100¢	$153	0x960514…
10-03 14:53:11	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0xa2d2e9…
09-30 15:33:03	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?	No	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x949541…
09-26 10:29:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 21-27?	No	BUY	153	100¢	$152	0x7644f5…
09-19 01:44:16	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 September 14-20?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x98e3cb…
09-09 15:51:33	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 9?	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x7ba734…
09-05 03:19:03	ethereum above 2800 on september 5 2026	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0xcbe70a…
09-04 00:26:07	Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 3?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x619032…
09-02 20:16:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 3?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x877f58…
09-01 14:10:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 1?	Yes	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0x106360…
09-01 14:09:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xae4bcc…
08-30 16:03:55	bitcoin above 72k on august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0x3c7633…
06-10 07:01:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	91¢	$132	0x12b899…
06-07 20:58:40	will bitcoin dip to 56k on june 7	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x7134e7…
05-26 10:26:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	SELL	460	100¢	$460	0x233347…
05-19 17:13:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x322faa…
05-13 10:01:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	BUY	591	100¢	$590	0x0a7d99…
05-08 11:28:04	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda	Casper Ruud	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x03912c…
05-05 13:16:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	591	100¢	$590	0x0e88dd…
03-24 14:39:29	bitcoin above 66k on march 24	Yes	BUY	582	100¢	$581	0x4eddba…
03-19 17:14:29	bitcoin above 76k on march 20	No	BUY	581	100¢	$580	0x1939b5…
03-17 12:45:03	ethereum above 1700 on march 18	Yes	BUY	580	100¢	$579	0x9982d9…
03-16 11:18:13	bitcoin above 70k on march 16	Yes	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x9fbfe5…
03-16 11:17:27	bitcoin above 70k on march 16	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf6e44e…
03-16 11:13:25	bitcoin above 70k on march 16	Yes	BUY	461	99¢	$457	0x99b1b6…
03-13 10:39:37	bitcoin above 58k on march 14	Yes	BUY	574	100¢	$573	0x4e0f42…
03-11 15:47:33	ethereum above 1600 on march 12	Yes	BUY	573	100¢	$572	0xa3bf68…
03-10 14:47:43	bitcoin above 68k on march 10	Yes	BUY	572	100¢	$572	0x5a220a…
03-09 15:53:49	will bitcoin dip to 60k on march 9	No	BUY	572	100¢	$571	0x005d97…
03-06 14:55:35	bitcoin above 72k on march 6	No	BUY	573	100¢	$571	0x8b427a…
02-27 13:02:13	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	700	79¢	$553	0x9aae2e…
02-25 15:01:44	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xbb3f42…
02-25 15:00:54	dota2 liquid pari 2026 02 25	Team Liquid	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd0913c…
02-25 15:00:28	cs2 pge 8s 2026 02 25	8Sins	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x2afdd5…
02-25 14:59:52	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8bdfb6…
02-25 14:59:16	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x584bfe…
02-24 08:44:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x06a216…
02-24 08:28:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x5170e8…
02-18 05:07:08	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xfa13d3…
02-18 05:06:10	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xdea5eb…
02-18 04:58:10	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	298	79¢	$235	0x033707…
02-16 22:55:21	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	SELL	400	94¢	$375	0xebf583…
02-16 22:55:11	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xf9ad0b…
02-16 17:38:29	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	95	81¢	$77	0x22aba6…
02-16 17:28:51	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x8290c5…
02-16 17:26:15	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x0457df…
02-16 17:22:37	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	80	81¢	$64	0xe2ae5d…
02-16 16:27:35	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	400	93¢	$370	0x680e5b…
02-16 15:49:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	543	97¢	$526	0xf5b8f6…
02-10 14:23:27	Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	431	99¢	$429	0x1cfb30…
02-10 14:20:15	Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x971539…
02-09 16:55:31	bitcoin above 70k on february 9	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0xf74b40…
02-09 16:55:31	bitcoin above 70k on february 9	Yes	BUY	410	80¢	$328	0x54ee7c…
02-09 16:04:51	will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be at least 56	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xdb3597…
02-09 16:01:21	msft up or down on february 9 2026	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x343eb1…
02-09 16:00:53	spx up or down on february 9 2026	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x86d3e6…
02-09 15:59:47	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x989b62…
02-09 15:59:35	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x470640…
02-09 15:59:07	nba mem gsw 2026 02 09	Warriors	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xde5374…
02-09 15:58:51	nba sac nop 2026 02 09	Pelicans	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0xf1073e…
02-09 15:56:59	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x74f7ee…
02-05 14:46:39	bitcoin above 78k on february 5	No	BUY	467	100¢	$466	0x507f3b…
01-31 16:49:26	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 31	No	BUY	466	100¢	$465	0x0f9e70…
01-27 16:17:59	bitcoin above 86k on january 27	Yes	BUY	465	100¢	$464	0x6b3c5e…
01-26 08:59:41	bitcoin above 90k on january 26	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x39055c…