Firsthand-Owl — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$127

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.0%

Resolved

1,615

Trades

2,202

lifetime

Volume

$6.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 10-09 10:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 62% -$70

Other

5% 38% -$25

Sports

1% 0% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$23	16	11	+5	Down	+$4	05-19 13:09
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	5	$22	26	0	+26	No	-$22	06-15 17:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	4	$22	26	7	+19	Down	-$1	05-19 20:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-01 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	4	$20	23	9	+14	Down	-$1	05-20 07:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	4	$19	23	7	+16	Down	+$1	05-20 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$17	12	12	+0	Down	+$1	05-25 17:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$16	25	0	+25	Up	-$16	05-12 08:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$16	20	0	+20	Up	-$6	05-25 18:03
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 7?	2	$15	14	14	+0	Yes	+$13	08-07 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$15	21	0	+21	Up	-$15	05-12 08:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$15	12	11	+1	Up	$0	05-21 08:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$14	10	10	+0	Down	-$1	05-26 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$14	129	0	+129	Down	-$5	05-26 11:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	3	$13	21	8	+13	Up	$0	05-19 18:14
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	3	$13	14	8	+6	Up	+$4	05-19 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-19 23:54
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$13	155	0	+155	No	-$13	07-06 17:38
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$13	24	9	+15	Up	-$1	05-19 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$13	27	27	+0	Down	-$7	05-19 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	3	$12	12	9	+3	Down	+$1	05-19 17:54
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$12	13	8	+5	Down	$0	05-19 18:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$12	15	10	+5	Down	-$1	05-19 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	05-20 04:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$12	21	21	+0	Up	-$7	05-19 13:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$12	12	8	+4	Down	-$1	05-19 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	3	$12	12	9	+3	Up	-$1	05-19 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$12	14	10	+4	Down	-$8	05-19 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	05-20 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	05-20 00:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 10:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xee5873…
10-08 10:42:45	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1e11eb…
10-07 14:54:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x68c960…
10-07 06:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe7e814…
10-07 06:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd13f98…
10-07 06:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbb585e…
10-06 14:28:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 6?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x0da424…
10-06 13:46:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x0b0f0c…
10-06 08:18:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd6e8c7…
10-06 07:36:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x742b98…
10-05 10:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xca9306…
10-01 22:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xac830b…
10-01 22:04:29	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x30f74c…
10-01 08:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x14f909…
10-01 08:21:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8528dc…
09-30 14:14:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x16434b…
09-30 13:19:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9132ac…
09-30 11:19:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xffb795…
09-30 10:49:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4f8448…
09-30 10:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7f8d6c…
09-30 10:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xdf8720…
09-30 10:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x38879e…
09-30 10:14:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xa5d15c…
09-30 09:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xfa13a6…
09-30 08:29:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa7ff72…
09-30 08:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xbaa769…
09-30 07:44:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x317a6f…
09-30 07:14:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xb7d1af…
09-30 07:09:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x4e5731…
09-30 06:19:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xe7c17d…
09-29 11:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x4eb835…
09-28 17:34:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xa989b3…
09-28 13:49:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x37e819…
09-28 13:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x41823c…
09-28 12:29:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd7e238…
09-28 09:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x5787f5…
09-28 08:05:36	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x5036ae…
09-28 03:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x3a0e54…
09-27 06:39:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x2cd37f…
09-27 05:49:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xcbd2ac…
09-27 03:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0xa8847a…
09-26 22:24:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xe956d0…
09-26 20:49:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xf355cc…
09-26 18:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xe5929c…
09-26 17:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x1f9664…
09-26 17:14:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xd7e0c1…
09-26 13:44:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xa2bbe8…
09-26 13:34:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xb431c0…
09-26 13:09:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x3bd953…
09-26 13:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xae1cec…
09-26 11:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0x068c39…
09-26 10:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 10:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x853f45…
09-26 09:44:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xa33112…
09-26 07:44:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb8e8cc…
09-26 07:29:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x6fd56e…
08-23 07:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x72e62f…
08-23 07:37:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xe1b7fe…
08-23 07:35:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x02e38d…
08-23 07:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xab96b1…
08-20 20:32:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xea907d…
08-20 20:26:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb9701e…
08-20 20:15:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x64178a…
08-19 11:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 19?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x186e5d…
08-18 19:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xe2cda4…
08-18 19:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on August 19?	Yes	BUY	207	1¢	$3	0x947af5…
08-18 19:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 18?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x15a30a…
08-18 19:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x134053…
08-18 10:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x143a14…
08-18 10:49:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8a2fbc…
08-18 05:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 18?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0b3ac9…
08-18 05:50:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9deb0c…
08-18 05:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa0d0e0…
08-16 19:30:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd401e9…
08-16 13:31:21	bitcoin up or down august 16 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x86620c…
08-16 13:30:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x899797…
08-16 12:36:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x27dd33…
08-16 12:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x2cdcea…
08-15 21:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x440cc7…
08-15 08:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xd028b0…
08-13 07:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x84b01d…
08-12 13:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x96c42b…
08-12 11:05:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x56b574…
08-11 18:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x35f562…
08-11 11:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0ea937…
08-10 21:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x396568…
08-10 15:34:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x5e2b04…
08-10 15:24:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb550f5…
08-10 15:19:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x28e849…
08-10 15:09:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x948d28…
08-10 14:34:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x135bae…
08-10 13:59:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc1d48a…
08-10 13:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xeab4d4…
08-10 13:12:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x1d5db1…
08-10 13:09:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb78617…
08-10 13:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x7846e9…
08-10 13:06:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x97c85a…
08-10 13:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x07f857…
08-10 13:01:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x23ec51…
08-10 13:00:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xf30d16…
08-10 12:59:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xc5c359…