Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$421

Unrealized P&L

-$35

Hit rate

12.2%

Resolved

170

Trades

848

lifetime

Volume

$7.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$578

18 positions

First seen

2026-06-29

last 08-23 08:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

86% 16% -$340

Tech

9% 20% -$88

Politics

5% 25% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+206	$175	99¢	$204	+$29	07-06 21:39
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	Yes	+148	$65	89¢	$131	+$66	07-01 08:12
will bytedances valuation hit high 700b by december 31 20260701011753595	No	+68	$45	93¢	$63	+$18	07-11 04:25
will epic games valuation hit high 15b by december 31	No	+40	$31	92¢	$37	+$6	07-07 12:34
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	No	+36	$36	62¢	$22	-$14	07-31 08:41
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	No	+20	$16	94¢	$19	+$3	06-29 18:38
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	No	+20	$14	92¢	$18	+$4	06-30 08:02
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	No	+148	$100	11¢	$17	-$84	07-01 17:41
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	No	+20	$14	79¢	$16	+$2	06-29 20:00
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	+36	$6	38¢	$13	+$8	07-15 16:12
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	+20	$15	52¢	$10	-$5	08-01 06:35
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	+20	$5	48¢	$10	+$5	08-01 06:33
will bytedances valuation hit high 700b by december 31 20260701011753595	Yes	+68	$25	7¢	$5	-$20	07-12 18:39
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	+20	$6	21¢	$4	-$2	06-29 20:00
will epic games valuation hit high 15b by december 31	Yes	+40	$19	8¢	$3	-$15	07-31 08:41
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	Yes	+20	$6	8¢	$2	-$4	06-29 19:16
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+206	$32	1¢	$1	-$30	07-06 16:04
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	Yes	+20	$4	6¢	$1	-$3	06-29 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will epic games valuation hit high 17pt5b by december 31	37	$524	1,026	27	+999	open	—	07-14 21:00
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	34	$522	1,038	0	+1,038	Yes	-$26	07-16 18:13
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	35	$307	610	0	+610	No	-$2	07-12 16:02
will gleans valuation hit low 5b by december 31 20260701011238546	10	$217	303	149	+154	open	—	07-06 23:39
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	14	$214	416	4	+412	open	—	07-06 21:39
will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	15	$182	320	20	+300	No	-$1	07-10 03:36
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?	22	$176	304	40	+264	No	-$2	07-20 02:59
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	8	$169	299	3	+296	open	—	07-01 17:41
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?	12	$156	312	0	+312	No	$0	07-19 20:14
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?	9	$138	200	40	+160	Yes	-$2	07-13 16:25
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?	11	$131	280	0	+280	No	-$11	07-20 07:08
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?	10	$125	230	50	+180	No	-$3	07-29 08:37
will bytedances valuation hit low 500b by december 31 20260701011753598	9	$117	168	32	+135	open	—	07-27 23:20
will epic games valuation hit high 15b by december 31	6	$111	140	60	+80	open	—	07-31 08:41
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?	13	$108	200	40	+160	No	-$4	07-10 15:50
will gleans valuation hit high 7pt5b by july 31 20260630205002624	5	$107	250	0	+250	No	-$7	07-17 15:56
will gleans valuation hit low 4b by december 31 20260701011238547	10	$102	207	0	+207	open	—	07-06 21:22
will bytedances valuation hit high 700b by december 31 20260701011753595	11	$98	186	50	+136	open	—	07-12 18:39
will conagra brands say collaboration during earnings call 20260703161814723	7	$93	172	0	+172	No	+$33	07-14 13:39
will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026	8	$92	90	50	+40	Yes	-$14	07-06 10:26
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?	7	$90	180	0	+180	No	$0	07-16 18:15
will lambdas valuation hit low 7b by december 31	5	$90	146	0	+146	open	—	07-06 04:36
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?	9	$89	150	50	+100	open	—	07-01 17:50
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	3	$84	150	0	+150	No	-$34	07-08 02:47
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	8	$78	115	44	+71	open	—	07-31 08:41
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	8	$70	100	20	+80	Yes	-$3	07-14 19:08
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	10	$68	120	0	+120	No	-$8	07-22 09:27
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?	5	$66	114	10	+104	open	—	07-01 04:48
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	7	$60	119	0	+119	No	-$1	07-27 16:51
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$54	50	50	+0	Yes	-$1	07-01 17:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-23 08:44:48	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xd94bb7…
08-06 08:55:45	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0x02b280…
08-06 08:44:08	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x9a6dcf…
08-06 08:31:26	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x3a8b78…
08-06 08:13:33	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8b2237…
08-06 07:00:09	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x41fd46…
08-06 06:27:44	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x3fc4ab…
08-06 06:13:29	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xbda3d0…
08-06 05:40:45	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xfb2884…
08-06 05:40:45	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8ef670…
08-06 05:40:45	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x30b46b…
08-06 05:26:27	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x64c73e…
08-06 04:10:12	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xafb0b5…
08-06 03:10:11	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xc0d66d…
08-06 01:28:33	Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x2aed71…
08-06 01:10:15	will the next google gemini pro model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher 20260729192434646	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x135cbb…
08-06 00:22:21	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x3e64de…
08-06 00:05:11	Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x10281b…
08-05 23:34:30	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x1de7e5…
08-05 23:12:54	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x9e2001…
08-05 22:53:30	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xd3a056…
08-05 22:47:30	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x31dafa…
08-05 21:47:32	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x658764…
08-05 21:42:15	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x746b2f…
08-05 21:00:36	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xdbc3a7…
08-05 21:00:36	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xd588d6…
08-05 21:00:36	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x51b834…
08-05 19:59:42	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x776d0b…
08-05 19:12:41	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x9ed2e4…
08-05 15:38:41	will the next google gemini pro model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher 20260729192434646	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb83702…
08-05 14:26:08	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x242979…
08-05 14:26:06	Will Mistral be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xb2b5da…
08-05 10:46:35	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x0f4a41…
08-05 10:36:27	Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x00703b…
08-05 03:29:54	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xc2c183…
08-05 03:29:44	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xab6969…
08-05 03:13:30	Will ByteDance be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x1b9f51…
08-04 19:01:59	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xec06ec…
08-04 18:48:29	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xd4d701…
08-04 18:08:11	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xef2d7c…
08-04 12:32:06	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x565203…
08-04 12:31:11	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x8b8d72…
08-04 12:31:09	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd1a169…
08-04 12:31:03	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xac6e50…
08-04 12:31:00	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xb9dd00…
08-04 11:00:27	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x1fb7cc…
08-04 10:50:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xb043ba…
08-04 10:03:36	will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the us by august 31 2026	No	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x69ca42…
08-04 09:50:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xbe83a5…
08-04 08:40:12	will phoenix be under an extreme heat warning for 10 days in august 2026 20260730191127649	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x92df58…
08-04 08:27:41	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x13de3f…
08-04 05:45:53	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x18fae1…
08-04 01:23:39	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x19f1dd…
08-04 00:18:32	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x372aa4…
08-03 21:34:02	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xc04895…
08-03 20:47:30	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xca184b…
08-03 20:47:30	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa8c4cc…
08-03 20:47:11	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xcb4222…
08-03 20:47:11	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa52ef2…
08-03 19:51:59	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x2ea8bc…
08-03 16:11:24	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4525cf…
08-03 16:11:18	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x65afa4…
08-03 16:11:18	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x02379b…
08-03 16:11:17	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x9fd01b…
08-03 12:23:47	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x064f27…
08-03 12:23:26	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xf3fcf4…
08-03 12:23:08	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x0ee9bf…
08-03 12:08:51	Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0xd74d91…
08-03 11:35:14	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x405fea…
08-03 11:13:44	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xac95a1…
08-03 08:06:42	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xa6b3ef…
08-03 08:01:35	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0x46d962…
08-03 01:25:35	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x679cb6…
08-02 20:52:03	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0xa4385e…
08-02 20:51:38	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xb37509…
08-02 20:51:36	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x735899…
08-02 20:51:23	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x7b9689…
08-02 20:51:12	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xf5bae7…
08-02 20:50:48	Will MiniMax be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x99c3d7…
08-02 18:51:39	Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x331750…
08-02 18:49:54	Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb08340…
08-02 18:49:54	Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x9db534…
08-02 18:49:53	Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x9b96de…
08-02 17:01:24	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0x0aa7b4…
08-02 16:08:11	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xc7377d…
08-02 16:06:47	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xccb4d4…
08-02 14:41:12	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xf9bb5d…
08-02 13:52:00	will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the us by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x5a2314…
08-02 13:23:23	Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x297a22…
08-02 10:54:17	Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x8118be…
08-02 09:07:45	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x09a520…
08-02 08:21:17	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0x6a0ad7…
08-02 07:30:15	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x27873c…
08-02 05:20:17	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x95b547…
08-02 03:21:33	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x6b6ae1…
08-02 01:21:23	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xb7ff4b…
08-01 23:52:00	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0xe17937…
08-01 23:50:57	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x87aeef…
08-01 23:50:41	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb948a6…
08-01 22:37:45	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x2b50e0…