Fixed-Beanie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$96

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

184

Trades

363

lifetime

Volume

$3.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 10-25 23:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 88% +$6

Politics

29% 89% -$9

Other

11% 76% -$86

Sports

5% 75% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$120	123	0	+123	No	+$3	05-28 18:42
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	5	$94	58	58	+0	open	—	08-07 00:45
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	5	$82	51	51	+0	open	—	09-09 03:01
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$79	59	35	+24	No	+$3	07-12 03:23
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	8	$47	79	25	+54	No	-$12	08-19 03:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$47	153	153	+0	No	+$6	06-18 03:23
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	34	$45	28	28	+0	No	+$6	08-21 02:32
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	14	$44	42	4	+37	No	+$2	07-01 01:20
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	7	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	06-21 20:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	3	$42	22	22	+0	No	+$2	09-09 03:08
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	4	$41	23	23	+0	open	—	10-25 23:23
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 spread home 1pt5	9	$40	88	0	+88	Real Madrid CF	-$40	04-15 13:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$40	83	0	+83	No	-$40	09-09 19:46
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	4	$40	42	0	+42	Yes	+$2	06-03 03:03
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$40	22	22	+0	No	+$0	07-05 03:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	4	$40	42	0	+42	No	+$2	08-08 20:11
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	4	$40	44	0	+44	Yes	+$4	07-24 19:57
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$40	49	0	+49	Yes	-$40	10-01 01:20
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	16	$37	30	30	+0	open	—	07-07 03:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$34	29	14	+14	Yes	+$8	05-25 00:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:00 UTC	2	$30	36	0	+36	Down	-$12	04-12 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:45 UTC	2	$30	33	0	+33	Down	-$13	04-11 21:50
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	4	$30	23	12	+11	Yes	+$1	08-19 03:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 02:05 UTC	2	$25	144	0	+144	Down	-$25	04-11 02:10
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$23	26	26	+0	open	—	10-25 23:22
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	08-07 00:47
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	09-09 03:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	09-09 03:08
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-05 03:14
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	2	$20	26	0	+26	No	+$6	04-15 06:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:23:50	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0xbb3217…
10-25 23:23:33	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	229	3¢	$6	0x27dd4b…
10-25 23:23:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	19¢	$6	0xb389c9…
10-25 23:23:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x7d4491…
10-25 23:22:45	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	26	53¢	$14	0x76bf8c…
10-10 07:04:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xf98df4…
10-04 14:52:34	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe7b3e4…
10-02 05:40:08	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9fd568…
10-02 03:34:36	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa78378…
10-01 01:20:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	13	73¢	$10	0xbf5b86…
10-01 01:19:12	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x385714…
09-15 05:17:00	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	229	4¢	$10	0x882c10…
09-10 18:29:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x785732…
09-09 23:47:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x80cfa7…
09-09 19:46:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4fffdc…
09-09 19:46:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x35b951…
09-09 19:46:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x27058f…
09-09 19:46:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x17b47e…
09-09 19:46:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x07f22a…
09-09 07:16:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x8b9c1f…
09-09 03:08:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x4a1781…
09-09 03:08:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xd99d33…
09-09 03:02:01	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x236a4c…
09-09 03:01:12	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	83¢	$42	0x4be4ff…
09-02 04:56:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x0258c4…
09-01 23:44:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1fc14c…
08-23 20:28:21	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5e624a…
08-21 03:45:03	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x401e4e…
08-21 03:44:13	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x844b3c…
08-21 02:32:48	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x5681a0…
08-21 01:20:04	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0xb8c3a3…
08-21 00:48:01	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x720bfd…
08-21 00:48:01	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x400323…
08-21 00:38:01	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x67a283…
08-21 00:38:00	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x9e0e1e…
08-21 00:20:12	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x979fce…
08-21 00:12:49	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x72d594…
08-21 00:10:58	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xd989f9…
08-21 00:10:57	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x5c99ba…
08-21 00:10:45	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x399101…
08-21 00:10:30	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x8c414c…
08-21 00:07:31	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x6c5a19…
08-21 00:07:28	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x6afe4c…
08-21 00:07:28	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x564889…
08-21 00:07:27	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x08177d…
08-21 00:01:55	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xa7e67b…
08-20 23:57:31	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x23c029…
08-20 23:56:51	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x86d43a…
08-20 23:56:16	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xcd098a…
08-20 23:48:04	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x1c5a0d…
08-20 23:47:55	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xff36dc…
08-20 23:47:54	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xd39318…
08-20 23:47:51	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x6afb29…
08-20 23:47:30	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x68e8ed…
08-20 23:47:21	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xe8cb78…
08-20 23:45:18	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xf1ab8a…
08-20 23:31:58	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xae9e0d…
08-20 23:31:58	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x869b49…
08-20 23:31:58	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x32621b…
08-20 23:31:52	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x2fade6…
08-20 23:31:51	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x8244cc…
08-20 18:25:10	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x8717ef…
08-20 17:48:36	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xc42c68…
08-20 02:26:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe98e1a…
08-19 03:13:22	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0x6017da…
08-19 03:12:34	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xe444df…
08-19 03:01:09	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x10a728…
08-18 14:08:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xec1f29…
08-18 01:08:55	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x622b9f…
08-18 01:08:55	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x4fe79a…
08-17 02:37:22	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x8d17ec…
08-17 02:36:51	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x8ec91e…
08-12 07:00:58	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xcaa069…
08-12 07:00:46	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xba4bf3…
08-12 07:00:40	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0x8644e7…
08-12 07:00:36	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	13	71¢	$9	0x5eae9b…
08-12 05:18:04	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0x95444c…
08-11 06:15:16	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x9edde4…
08-11 06:15:04	Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x7f410a…
08-10 07:08:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xee0a99…
08-10 07:03:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x630955…
08-10 07:03:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x213c46…
08-10 07:03:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4e1a29…
08-10 04:14:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x48a746…
08-10 04:09:45	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	11	84¢	$10	0x2ac4a5…
08-08 20:18:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xdd5eb1…
08-08 20:17:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x0e4dfb…
08-08 20:15:37	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7d352e…
08-08 20:15:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x9502cd…
08-08 20:14:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xfe00b1…
08-08 20:11:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5450bf…
08-08 20:10:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe09959…
08-08 20:10:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8b925c…
08-08 20:08:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x515687…
08-08 19:48:31	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xc68c1e…
08-07 00:47:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x508a49…
08-07 00:47:00	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$10	0x8e0e7d…
08-07 00:45:53	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	94¢	$54	0x4c1b93…
07-29 03:04:50	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x155659…
07-29 03:04:27	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xc74b26…