Sizzling-Deviation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$952

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

106

Trades

1,398

lifetime

Volume

$19.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 08-14 07:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

83% 34% +$1,496

Crypto

17% 26% -$536

Tech

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	108	$3.9K	5,480	5,812	-332	Yes	+$342	03-17 15:18
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	76	$2.4K	8,884	5,884	+3,000	No	+$276	04-03 15:56
ethereum above 2100 on march 5	44	$1.1K	1,793	1,793	+0	No	+$13	03-05 14:20
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	21	$1.1K	1,613	1,613	+0	No	+$434	03-10 14:29
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	23	$1.0K	1,482	1,051	+431	Yes	+$270	04-25 15:27
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	32	$857	3,252	3,252	+0	Yes	+$262	03-05 10:24
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	6	$631	952	952	+0	Yes	+$495	05-15 05:24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	5	$411	477	477	+0	Yes	+$268	04-29 01:25
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	104	$405	17,172	7,111	+10,060	No	-$126	03-17 15:40
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	10	$396	1,846	1,846	+0	Yes	+$206	04-13 14:00
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 380 399	47	$393	7,035	7,500	-465	No	+$160	03-10 14:23
bitcoin above 68k on march 8	7	$387	926	926	+0	No	+$28	03-08 07:09
bitcoin up or down march 2 5am et	3	$357	188	188	+0	Up	+$15	03-02 10:59
bitcoin up or down march 2 4am et	25	$333	693	693	+0	Down	+$14	03-02 09:33
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	11	$291	778	778	+0	Yes	+$16	04-03 13:10
bitcoin above 72k on march 5	7	$240	403	403	+0	No	+$13	03-05 14:24
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	18	$234	1,523	530	+993	No	-$65	04-29 15:12
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	24	$217	4,542	942	+3,600	No	+$32	03-20 15:59
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	15	$216	149	149	+0	Yes	+$9	03-10 13:20
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	5	$200	1,000	500	+500	No	-$60	08-12 13:22
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	4	$198	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$98	03-13 07:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 11:10 UTC	10	$188	235	0	+235	Down	-$188	03-02 11:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	25	$181	914	100	+814	Up	-$133	08-12 16:25
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 360 379	14	$175	2,526	2,526	+0	No	+$44	03-19 14:31
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	14	$147	3,368	1,010	+2,358	No	-$37	03-03 06:53
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	3	$138	500	500	+0	Yes	+$72	05-06 05:52
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	3	$136	1,254	1,254	+0	No	-$64	03-04 05:02
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 240 259	5	$134	1,011	511	+500	No	-$23	03-17 09:40
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	4	$125	595	595	+0	No	+$29	03-04 13:01
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	15	$117	3,097	2,097	+1,000	No	-$5	04-03 05:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 07:06:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	6¢	$4	0x2a8867…
08-12 16:25:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x9b5325…
08-12 16:25:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xae2628…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0xf33776…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xdd9156…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x90434c…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x6bf568…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x58ee68…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	173	12¢	$21	0x57551c…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x36f26f…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x18eaf7…
08-12 16:24:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x0aa36d…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdb33d8…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xd07774…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	60	21¢	$13	0x96c25b…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0x8527a4…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x63fb1b…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	180	21¢	$38	0x4b0c50…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	203	21¢	$43	0x33d72a…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x29be20…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x16a4ed…
08-12 16:23:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x08236c…
08-12 16:20:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	100	24¢	$24	0x0f19ea…
08-12 16:18:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xd3759e…
08-12 16:18:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x3aead2…
08-12 16:18:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	79	16¢	$13	0x395354…
08-12 13:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	341	14¢	$48	0xa1b8e6…
08-12 13:21:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	14¢	$6	0xb19b86…
08-12 13:07:55	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	14¢	$15	0x9a65c9…
08-12 13:01:58	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x9656d7…
08-12 09:15:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0xbd28e5…
08-12 09:14:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$6	0x916e99…
07-06 13:07:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	948	0¢	$5	0x02d867…
07-06 12:48:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0xd97744…
07-06 12:48:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	0¢	$1	0xa01c65…
07-06 12:41:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x545360…
07-06 12:41:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe4690a…
07-06 12:41:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0x58fead…
07-06 11:51:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x6ad51d…
07-05 19:38:52	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 5	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xf89425…
07-05 11:17:05	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x734ade…
07-05 11:04:29	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x4f3f9a…
07-05 11:04:29	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x37f61f…
07-05 11:04:26	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x266679…
07-05 11:04:23	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x6d9bca…
07-05 11:04:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xe46796…
07-05 11:04:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x2cfc3e…
07-05 11:04:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x1e1674…
07-05 11:04:19	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xf15511…
07-05 11:04:01	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xc1d25b…
07-05 11:04:01	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x76a745…
07-05 11:03:58	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x53f8b8…
07-05 11:03:58	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x23f7bd…
07-05 11:03:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x162174…
07-05 11:03:29	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xad3182…
07-05 11:03:29	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x1b5d42…
07-05 11:03:28	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xfa1b79…
07-05 11:03:25	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xe15d51…
07-05 11:03:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xa402c8…
07-05 11:03:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x872330…
07-05 11:03:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x6ef148…
07-05 11:03:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x6df989…
07-05 11:03:20	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x2c016c…
07-05 11:03:02	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x6fa73d…
07-05 11:02:59	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xb3ba4b…
07-05 11:02:59	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x96b6fb…
07-05 11:02:59	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x9242d9…
07-05 11:02:55	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xd8f1ca…
07-05 11:02:55	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x9c079d…
07-05 11:02:53	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xf56315…
07-05 11:02:53	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x7b7917…
07-05 11:02:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xa5ca04…
07-05 11:02:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x9d6b8d…
07-05 11:02:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	73	5¢	$4	0x088d39…
07-05 11:02:49	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x2ef827…
07-05 09:05:04	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x5cbc6e…
07-05 03:53:40	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 4	Yes	BUY	1,344	0¢	$1	0x975aec…
07-05 03:53:19	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	379	0¢	$0	0x124df6…
07-05 03:53:13	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0x75fbe1…
07-05 03:53:13	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-05 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	461	0¢	$0	0x426abd…
07-05 03:52:16	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 4	Yes	BUY	551	0¢	$1	0xa4e047…
07-05 03:51:53	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 4	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xd12def…
07-05 03:44:16	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 4	Yes	BUY	105	0¢	$0	0x3622ca…
07-04 10:02:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	3¢	$2	0x2045c4…
07-04 10:02:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0xc11e3c…
07-04 10:02:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x737607…
07-04 10:01:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	626	3¢	$17	0x126a3d…
07-04 10:00:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xe2cdd3…
07-04 10:00:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xa044c8…
07-04 09:56:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	3¢	$5	0x65e826…
07-04 09:38:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xccaab4…
06-30 16:09:19	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xd3bf90…
06-22 10:19:16	will russia capture dorozhnie by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$17	0xc583e9…
06-22 09:28:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd7cb50…
06-22 09:28:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x17bc02…
06-22 09:28:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x09db56…
06-22 09:28:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xb0e2b4…
06-22 09:28:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe2c717…
06-22 09:28:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x90d109…
06-22 09:28:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0xfde768…