Ugly-Advertising — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.82K

Unrealized P&L

+$199

Hit rate

25.7%

Resolved

474

Trades

1,069

lifetime

Volume

$6.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$1.19K

1 position

First seen

2026-05-20

last 10-26 16:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

85% 14% -$1,256

Politics

10% 6% -$500

Crypto

3% 37% +$3

Sports

1% 0% -$47

Tech

0% 0% -$21

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes		+18,262	$988	6¢	$1.2K	+$199	10-22 01:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	21	$1.2K	20,176	1,914	+18,262	open	—	10-22 01:42
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	9	$335	1,425	0	+1,425	No	-$335	10-02 20:49
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	5	$244	145	145	+0	Yes	-$4	09-01 16:11
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	16	$203	1,873	1,873	+0	open	—	09-29 08:42
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?	4	$153	99	99	+0	No	-$12	08-28 21:22
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	3	$152	91	91	+0	Yes	+$29	06-22 17:03
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	6	$146	7,052	0	+7,052	No	-$146	06-08 17:50
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	2	$105	164	0	+164	Yes	+$58	08-30 19:48
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	4	$104	81	81	+0	No	-$6	06-21 20:30
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	2	$89	109	109	+0	Yes	+$5	09-28 22:41
Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	2	$85	109	109	+0	No	+$5	09-28 14:21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$84	135	0	+135	No	-$84	06-22 17:06
another gta vi trailer released by june 30	4	$75	134	134	+0	No	-$4	06-21 08:11
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	2	$71	56	56	+0	Yes	-$1	06-21 13:09
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	10	$67	14,693	0	+14,693	No	-$67	06-18 01:27
Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	3	$60	506	0	+506	No	-$60	09-01 12:58
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	4	$59	44	44	+0	Yes	+$9	06-05 16:01
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	7	$55	11,197	0	+11,197	No	-$55	06-30 16:00
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	3	$55	1,455	247	+1,207	Yes	-$55	06-08 20:04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	2	$54	57	57	+0	Yes	-$18	09-28 14:12
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$53	59	59	+0	Yes	+$24	05-22 13:02
Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?	2	$51	104	104	+0	No	+$24	09-28 13:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$51	21,642	0	+21,642	No	-$51	05-21 17:51
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events in Rockland County?	2	$48	44	44	+0	Yes	+$40	05-22 21:04
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?	2	$48	34	34	+0	Yes	+$17	06-22 14:27
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	10	$46	10,234	0	+10,234	No	-$46	08-18 23:11
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	1	$45	125	0	+125	Knicks	-$45	05-21 18:41
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex	6	$43	57	39	+18	Kent	-$5	05-25 17:29
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	4	$41	397	0	+397	No	-$41	06-04 21:02
crint sgp uzb 2026 06 22	6	$41	3,146	0	+3,146	Singapore	-$41	06-22 14:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:51:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xb9ad4e…
10-26 16:51:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x07af66…
10-22 01:49:24	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xd0f96d…
10-22 01:48:21	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	Yes	BUY	289	1¢	$2	0x469e5b…
10-22 01:48:06	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?	Yes	BUY	238	1¢	$2	0x6b5e23…
10-22 01:47:05	Will MrBeast hit 144.5 billion views by October 31?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaa6460…
10-22 01:46:56	Will MrBeast hit 144.5 billion views by October 31?	No	BUY	75	2¢	$2	0x963038…
10-22 01:45:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	304	2¢	$6	0x135e3f…
10-22 01:42:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	9¢	$17	0xdc7b7e…
10-21 04:47:48	Will MrBeast hit 144.5 billion views by October 31?	No	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x07f529…
10-21 04:42:32	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	111	3¢	$3	0x346475…
10-19 14:36:32	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe51143…
10-19 14:33:02	Will MrBeast hit 523 million subscribers by October 31?	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xa39537…
10-19 14:32:51	Will MrBeast hit 523 million subscribers by October 31?	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x512405…
10-19 14:32:33	Will MrBeast hit 523 million subscribers by October 31?	No	BUY	146	1¢	$2	0x3a0625…
10-19 14:32:02	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	186	4¢	$7	0x38cc84…
10-17 16:02:12	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0xf2d231…
10-15 21:20:38	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	609	0¢	$1	0x672518…
10-15 16:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	11¢	$2	0x452f24…
10-14 17:52:31	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x7cec30…
10-14 16:39:48	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x9583cf…
10-14 16:37:30	will mrbeast hit 523 million subscribers by october 31 2026	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xad2464…
10-14 16:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x76793b…
10-14 16:33:21	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	188	4¢	$7	0x55ea4d…
10-13 22:08:58	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xc4e09b…
10-13 22:08:42	Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	220	0¢	$1	0x0786d6…
10-13 22:00:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x00c3f1…
10-13 22:00:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xec093d…
10-13 21:56:40	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	4¢	$7	0x025028…
10-13 20:35:49	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 975m and 980m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	154	0¢	$0	0xa3011b…
10-13 13:24:35	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0xa081b8…
10-12 20:27:59	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x19eae6…
10-12 20:27:15	Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	702	0¢	$2	0x8ae031…
10-12 12:32:38	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xfa2251…
10-12 12:29:27	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$0	0xacb77a…
10-12 12:27:39	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,299	4¢	$90	0x1053cd…
10-07 11:20:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x36e099…
10-05 06:27:38	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	214	0¢	$0	0x4a5962…
10-05 03:24:25	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,531	4¢	$67	0xbb5e59…
10-03 12:48:18	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,524	5¢	$237	0x555514…
10-02 22:38:15	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	No	BUY	344	0¢	$2	0x72c35d…
10-02 21:42:03	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	No	BUY	756	0¢	$1	0x6259b8…
10-02 20:49:29	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc1c0b7…
10-02 20:49:17	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	360	0¢	$2	0x85bd7e…
10-02 20:48:33	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	27	22¢	$6	0x98277c…
10-01 19:40:48	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x891608…
10-01 19:30:14	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	162	1¢	$2	0x158832…
10-01 19:29:51	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$2	0xe91426…
09-30 21:27:26	Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	481	1¢	$4	0x604bfa…
09-30 15:43:54	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	188	32¢	$60	0xf5284b…
09-30 14:44:29	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	106	31¢	$33	0x5ad786…
09-30 14:29:57	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 975m and 980m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	211	1¢	$3	0x576f85…
09-30 13:12:53	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	315	3¢	$11	0xdb14a7…
09-30 12:53:14	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	256	27¢	$70	0xf43855…
09-29 12:29:54	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	54	30¢	$16	0xd08fb1…
09-29 12:29:27	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	556	2¢	$9	0xba15b8…
09-29 12:29:15	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	Yes	SELL	167	5¢	$8	0x938631…
09-29 08:43:17	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	145	29¢	$42	0xc4d71e…
09-29 08:42:56	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	828	6¢	$46	0x448968…
09-28 22:41:29	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	152	34¢	$53	0x377de2…
09-28 22:41:03	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	43¢	$47	0xd75c1e…
09-28 22:40:51	Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	6¢	$9	0xa23336…
09-28 14:22:06	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	115	37¢	$42	0xfee0d3…
09-28 14:21:41	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	41¢	$45	0xc8821d…
09-28 14:19:03	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	48	35¢	$17	0x217002…
09-28 14:12:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	32¢	$18	0xfbe526…
09-28 13:35:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	63¢	$36	0x7d0b4f…
09-28 13:33:14	Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	36¢	$37	0x38943a…
09-27 18:46:32	Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	13¢	$14	0x0eb207…
09-27 18:46:15	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	37¢	$40	0xc548eb…
09-27 18:45:56	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	39¢	$42	0x2840ed…
09-27 15:44:20	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	347	1¢	$3	0x8229b4…
09-27 13:36:24	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 12.5 and 15 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xa0b7ac…
09-27 13:32:08	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x77151f…
09-26 22:02:32	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xbe02a9…
09-26 22:01:36	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$5	0x2d1bb4…
09-26 21:30:38	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	556	2¢	$10	0x6e4356…
09-26 21:29:26	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x0fbb04…
09-26 17:35:14	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0x07cc74…
09-25 22:21:42	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x741c0c…
09-25 22:21:06	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0xf05081…
09-25 20:04:42	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	115	5¢	$6	0xe9eeea…
09-25 18:11:47	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xc484f8…
09-25 18:11:24	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	221	5¢	$10	0xebf911…
09-25 18:10:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7a0fe1…
09-25 18:09:56	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	4¢	$5	0x7dac20…
09-25 18:06:42	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x6437f6…
09-25 18:06:32	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	157	1¢	$1	0x9582a8…
09-25 15:42:24	Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	21¢	$29	0xab9ac0…
09-25 15:42:05	Will Elon tweet 760-799 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	6¢	$7	0x630fb8…
09-25 15:39:29	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	13¢	$15	0x4f4a70…
09-25 12:35:59	will mrbeast hit 519 million subscribers by september 30 2026	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x626c2f…
09-25 11:18:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	9¢	$11	0x2de283…
09-25 09:36:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xae1389…
09-25 09:36:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xd6ed5e…
09-25 08:53:12	Will MrBeast hit 519 million subscribers by September 30?	No	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0x51583e…
09-25 08:51:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0xb9a767…
09-25 08:51:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0xda0386…
09-24 16:48:33	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	606	1¢	$9	0xf3ce5f…
09-24 14:53:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0xfdacd3…