Shoddy-Shed — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$33

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

89.6%

Resolved

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$7.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-01-31

last 08-13 01:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Other

65% 94% +$29

Tech

20% 92% +$1

Politics

13% 83% +$12

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-13).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-52	-$51	99¢	$-52	$0	05-08 09:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	10	$1.0K	800	800	+0	Down	+$2	02-27 09:43
spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	7	$568	400	400	+0	Up	+$4	03-04 12:31
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	6	$559	560	0	+560	No	+$1	08-13 01:57
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	11	$538	400	400	+0	Yes	+$6	02-28 02:29
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$403	253	253	+0	Yes	+$3	03-23 12:51
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 3	2	$395	200	200	+0	Yes	+$1	04-03 11:29
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$332	200	200	+0	No	$0	02-10 01:26
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	26	$314	320	0	+320	Yes	+$6	06-28 15:27
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	2	$236	200	200	+0	Down	+$4	02-26 06:32
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$216	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 12:50
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$204	200	200	+0	No	-$4	02-04 03:35
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	3	$198	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	02-24 01:14
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-27 15:54
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$188	200	0	+200	Yes	+$12	03-04 14:30
will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	3	$158	160	0	+160	No	+$2	03-24 04:46
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	2	$145	145	0	+145	Yes	+$0	03-02 03:15
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	3	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-10 00:34
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-01 14:27
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-01 14:26
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-08 09:27
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	02-17 08:21
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	06-16 04:35
will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	4	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	04-01 13:30
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	02-17 08:20
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	1	$97	100	0	+100	No	+$3	02-13 15:07
spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	9	$90	94	94	+0	Down	+$0	02-07 08:42
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	2	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$0	03-29 05:41
will company b be accused of insider trading	5	$73	50	50	+0	No	+$1	02-26 13:39
will axiom be accused of insider trading	2	$68	50	50	+0	Yes	+$3	02-26 13:16
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$53	30	30	+0	Yes	+$1	04-24 03:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 01:57:03	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd53c77…
08-12 15:48:15	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xc760e7…
08-11 12:07:15	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2063f4…
08-11 07:52:55	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd4e758…
08-11 02:42:43	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x45809e…
08-11 00:56:03	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x59d063…
08-07 00:41:59	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 7?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xe677ac…
06-28 15:27:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2f0f51…
06-28 15:27:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x3ad129…
06-28 15:25:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf10f3d…
06-28 15:25:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x4a0369…
06-28 15:24:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xfe41f5…
06-28 15:24:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xe12eb9…
06-28 15:24:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x581505…
06-28 15:23:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x4541f9…
06-28 15:22:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xbed9af…
06-28 15:22:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa9fb73…
06-28 15:22:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcb0bb7…
06-28 15:22:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc7d09a…
06-28 15:21:50	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x5727da…
06-28 15:21:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x352d76…
06-28 15:21:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xad95ed…
06-28 15:20:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x59a94d…
06-28 15:20:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x4c08ce…
06-28 15:19:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x317804…
06-28 15:19:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x31011f…
06-28 15:18:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa9cf4b…
06-28 15:18:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbaaa37…
06-28 15:18:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xd68894…
06-28 15:17:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8a6294…
06-28 15:17:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x83bdde…
06-28 15:16:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x2c48d8…
06-17 23:08:11	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xf22516…
06-16 07:34:12	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$16	0x440ce4…
06-16 04:35:15	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x42a540…
06-16 04:27:57	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x66cc32…
06-16 03:56:01	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x8a8319…
06-01 14:46:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc0b5a0…
06-01 14:29:56	Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf268fe…
06-01 14:27:12	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbbf875…
06-01 14:26:24	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x381d1f…
05-19 07:39:55	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x7f5375…
05-19 07:38:40	Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x1911b7…
05-18 16:41:33	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x844ea0…
05-18 15:25:17	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x8d3990…
05-18 15:22:32	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xb95f9f…
05-13 16:13:00	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x2b71ec…
05-12 16:53:33	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xe25b32…
05-11 17:28:04	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xd8b780…
05-11 14:00:19	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xcfd533…
05-10 00:34:40	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8fd89a…
05-08 16:39:01	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x1f9bc0…
05-08 13:15:53	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x91f3ae…
05-08 10:40:24	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9ff26b…
05-08 09:27:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xad4325…
05-08 09:24:31	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x59dd89…
05-08 09:22:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x36f174…
04-27 15:54:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xf1ba26…
04-24 03:37:56	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x9e3e10…
04-20 18:52:56	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x4637f8…
04-16 20:29:40	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x366d00…
04-16 10:57:12	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x7f4f22…
04-16 10:48:16	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	Yes	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0xd7b2d4…
04-15 23:03:54	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x251c79…
04-15 19:13:48	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xf1c990…
04-15 15:14:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x26b059…
04-15 15:11:04	will google gemini be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x665fde…
04-15 15:08:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xe584ca…
04-04 16:38:09	will claude opus 4 6 thinking have the top ai model on april 10 2026 style control on	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x116f06…
04-04 13:53:03	will the total number of tsa passengers for april 4 be less than 3000000 632	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x28b062…
04-03 11:29:29	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 3	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x0819a6…
04-01 13:30:29	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xff94bf…
04-01 13:30:29	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x249dc7…
04-01 13:30:27	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x443d41…
04-01 13:30:27	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1ca334…
04-01 13:28:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x365d2b…
04-01 12:29:33	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 3	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xbfb949…
03-29 05:41:10	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xfbbbd7…
03-24 04:46:07	will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x01dd7d…
03-23 17:49:41	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xd43c0d…
03-23 12:51:49	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	253	80¢	$203	0x8e6f54…
03-23 03:27:59	will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x1e74ce…
03-23 03:16:17	will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x8eb68e…
03-06 01:35:09	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x09abef…
03-04 14:30:55	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x87c41b…
03-04 12:50:43	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0xa7cbee…
03-04 12:31:29	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x16f160…
03-04 09:14:47	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x6026b9…
03-04 07:38:13	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	172	75¢	$129	0xfd3d40…
03-04 07:34:37	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x11fbed…
03-04 07:30:13	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xe0a157…
03-04 07:30:01	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xfb5968…
03-04 02:17:29	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x338f8d…
03-04 01:43:41	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x1c146f…
03-02 03:15:47	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xc0eff9…
03-02 03:15:29	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x1c69b9…
02-28 02:29:11	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xa1d900…
02-28 01:25:27	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	67¢	$59	0x51fd4c…
02-28 01:23:33	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xb03622…
02-28 01:21:45	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x59045e…