Ample-Fate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$490

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

189

Trades

484

lifetime

Volume

$1.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-29 14:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 34% -$133

Politics

39% 29% +$649

Other

4% 0% -$5

Tech

2% 0% -$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$736	701	701	+0	Yes	+$664	05-09 04:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	6	$43	37	37	+0	Up	+$17	07-22 15:59
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$30	100	100	+0	open	—	05-13 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 09:15 UTC	5	$27	132	32	+100	Down	+$17	06-10 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	3	$27	25	21	+4	Down	+$9	05-09 05:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	6	$23	60	15	+45	Down	-$1	07-22 15:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	4	$22	127	127	+0	open	—	08-04 12:20
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	6	$22	517	517	+0	No	-$4	06-10 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	7	$20	37	17	+20	Down	+$2	05-29 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$20	18	18	+0	Up	+$6	05-10 19:28
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$20	143	143	+0	open	—	05-10 21:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	7	$20	68	58	+10	Up	+$4	05-05 01:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	5	$20	110	33	+77	Up	+$4	07-22 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	4	$19	22	15	+7	Down	+$7	05-13 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	4	$19	114	0	+114	Down	-$19	05-09 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 21:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:35 UTC	6	$18	133	15	+118	Down	+$3	04-14 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	4	$18	29	9	+20	Down	-$4	07-22 16:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:30 UTC	5	$17	58	12	+46	Down	+$7	04-14 14:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	7	$16	27	16	+11	Up	+$2	07-22 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	5	$15	118	13	+105	Up	+$3	10-19 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:05 UTC	3	$15	24	9	+15	Up	+$3	04-14 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	3	$14	15	10	+5	Up	+$2	05-29 09:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	05-10 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$13	11	11	+0	Up	+$3	05-29 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	4	$13	13	13	+0	Up	+$7	10-19 11:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:10 UTC	3	$13	9	9	+0	Up	+$5	04-14 14:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 15:40 UTC	3	$13	17	8	+9	Up	+$2	04-14 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$13	21	8	+13	Down	+$0	05-10 21:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$12	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-05 01:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 14:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xeeafe8…
10-29 14:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x212cde…
10-29 14:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x118b58…
10-29 14:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x66dcc1…
10-29 14:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x4f7af0…
10-29 14:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1cceef…
10-29 14:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x381c21…
10-29 14:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6e0b40…
10-29 14:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x63fd90…
10-29 14:22:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x9d10f2…
10-29 14:21:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x3b9294…
10-29 14:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x9b0556…
10-29 14:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x62994d…
10-27 14:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x05e871…
10-27 14:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8dde26…
10-27 14:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xebfe4e…
10-27 14:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x652d0a…
10-27 14:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa11f49…
10-27 14:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x57a33e…
10-27 14:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xac1030…
10-27 14:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x556e95…
10-27 14:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x246228…
10-27 14:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8e9f8c…
10-27 14:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x55139a…
10-19 12:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x121f6f…
10-19 12:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x7be9a1…
10-19 12:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xc8db84…
10-19 12:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd6d8ce…
10-19 12:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd8d036…
10-19 12:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x054ac5…
10-19 12:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9f4789…
10-19 12:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x73942d…
10-19 12:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xad92cd…
10-19 12:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2e4a82…
10-19 11:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x25d6d8…
10-19 11:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x1d2ffd…
10-19 11:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0x763995…
10-19 11:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x19d05b…
10-19 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x79f6a1…
10-19 11:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3e57c9…
10-19 11:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xa74764…
10-19 11:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x922868…
10-19 11:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xb486d1…
10-19 11:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6c49ae…
10-19 11:48:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x078841…
10-19 11:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xe478ce…
10-19 11:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa2b9f8…
10-19 11:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x5245a6…
10-19 11:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	13	65¢	$9	0xd65dc8…
10-19 11:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x302ab5…
10-19 11:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x402693…
10-13 10:30:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4a09ec…
10-13 10:25:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x748e5f…
10-13 10:25:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x0a0e10…
08-04 12:21:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xba111f…
08-04 12:21:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xbb7024…
08-04 12:20:51	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	64	6¢	$4	0x51b2e6…
08-04 12:18:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xf35c03…
08-04 12:18:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	6¢	$3	0x394a43…
07-23 13:30:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbbe607…
07-23 13:29:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x00bbe9…
07-22 16:11:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	127	11¢	$14	0xe48168…
07-22 16:09:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb83c92…
07-22 16:08:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc1bdd9…
07-22 16:08:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0ae73d…
07-22 16:03:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc761c1…
07-22 16:03:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	Down	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0xea81de…
07-22 16:01:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbe3acb…
07-22 16:01:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xce3842…
07-22 15:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xb37e0d…
07-22 15:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7e6ee9…
07-22 15:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf1d3dd…
07-22 15:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb68477…
07-22 15:57:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:55 UTC	Down	SELL	16	53¢	$9	0xb8e5cb…
07-22 15:55:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x3c17ea…
07-22 15:54:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x71181e…
07-22 15:53:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd08cbe…
07-22 15:52:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x95151e…
07-22 15:51:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x3ed256…
07-22 15:50:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x29644d…
07-22 15:50:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2045e6…
07-22 15:49:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe353f2…
07-22 15:49:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2288df…
07-22 15:49:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8a844c…
07-22 15:48:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	Up	SELL	33	35¢	$12	0x49839a…
07-22 15:47:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x78c927…
07-22 15:44:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xac22b8…
07-22 15:44:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9accc6…
07-22 15:43:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Down	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x67efe8…
07-22 15:42:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd0773b…
07-22 15:41:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x00db65…
07-22 15:41:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x6ff139…
07-22 15:40:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3a6d99…
07-22 15:38:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe91ac7…
07-22 15:37:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6c7ab0…
07-22 15:37:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:35 UTC	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xafaecf…
07-22 15:37:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5e6b82…
06-11 14:16:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0x0df906…
06-11 14:10:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf4abec…
06-11 14:10:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1028ef…