Ample-Fate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$611

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

Trades

375

lifetime

Volume

$1.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 06-11 14:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 37% $-51

Politics

47% 50% +$662

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 87 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$736	701	701	+0	Yes	+$664	05-09 04:41
btc updown 5m 1781082900	5	$27	132	32	+100	open	—	06-10 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	3	$27	25	21	+4	Down	+$9	05-09 05:44
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	6	$22	517	517	+0	open	—	06-10 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	7	$20	37	17	+20	open	—	05-29 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$20	18	18	+0	Up	+$6	05-10 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	7	$20	68	58	+10	Up	+$4	05-05 01:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	4	$19	22	15	+7	Down	+$7	05-13 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	4	$19	114	0	+114	Down	$-19	05-09 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 21:10
btc updown 5m 1776177300	6	$18	133	15	+118	open	—	04-14 14:39
btc updown 5m 1776177000	5	$17	58	12	+46	open	—	04-14 14:34
btc updown 5m 1776175500	3	$15	24	9	+15	open	—	04-14 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	3	$14	15	10	+5	open	—	05-29 09:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	05-10 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$13	11	11	+0	open	—	05-29 09:24
btc updown 5m 1776175800	3	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	04-14 14:15
btc updown 5m 1776181200	3	$13	17	8	+9	open	—	04-14 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$13	21	8	+13	Down	+$0	05-10 21:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$12	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-05 01:44
btc updown 5m 1776274200	5	$12	13	12	+1	open	—	04-15 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$12	37	0	+37	Down	$-12	05-13 02:26
btc updown 5m 1776178200	3	$12	13	12	+1	open	—	04-14 14:53
btc updown 5m 1776180300	3	$12	25	10	+15	open	—	04-14 15:29
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$11	73	0	+73	open	—	05-23 17:38
btc updown 5m 1781083500	6	$11	49	0	+49	open	—	06-10 09:27
btc updown 5m 1776178800	4	$10	10	9	+0	open	—	04-14 15:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	5	$10	21	6	+15	Up	$-2	05-05 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	3	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	05-04 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$10	13	6	+8	Down	+$2	05-10 19:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 14:16:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0x0df906…
06-11 14:10:49	btc updown 5m 1781187000	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf4abec…
06-11 14:10:37	btc updown 5m 1781187000	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1028ef…
06-10 17:35:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	BUY	305	2¢	$7	0xa5738b…
06-10 17:34:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	Yes	SELL	420	2¢	$7	0x04165e…
06-10 09:31:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	1,096	1¢	$8	0x80f75e…
06-10 09:27:07	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x65d3ee…
06-10 09:25:57	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xb3c62f…
06-10 09:25:48	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xabb1fd…
06-10 09:25:39	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x69720a…
06-10 09:25:31	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x87bcf6…
06-10 09:25:24	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x7551ca…
06-10 09:22:31	btc updown 5m 1781083200	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7470fb…
06-10 09:21:24	btc updown 5m 1781083200	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x025e00…
06-10 09:21:15	btc updown 5m 1781083200	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf472fa…
06-10 09:19:58	btc updown 5m 1781082900	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4e1c1f…
06-10 09:19:43	btc updown 5m 1781082900	Down	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0xa5bcef…
06-10 09:18:39	btc updown 5m 1781082900	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xbac2be…
06-10 09:17:13	btc updown 5m 1781082900	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc72a1b…
06-10 09:17:06	btc updown 5m 1781082900	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x1b591b…
06-07 15:52:33	btc updown 5m 1780847400	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc5c17d…
06-07 15:52:10	btc updown 5m 1780847400	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0xd8562d…
06-07 15:51:25	btc updown 5m 1780847400	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0b0ec0…
06-07 15:51:06	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xd237d3…
06-07 15:48:22	btc updown 5m 1780847100	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5ffce2…
06-07 15:47:42	btc updown 5m 1780847100	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x79176c…
06-07 15:44:40	btc updown 5m 1780846800	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x7db0ff…
06-07 15:43:57	btc updown 5m 1780846800	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xff4210…
06-07 15:43:12	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0x75b1a9…
06-07 15:41:36	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	Yes	SELL	70	2¢	$1	0x0c9799…
06-03 15:00:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?	Yes	BUY	87	3¢	$3	0xa17f3a…
06-03 14:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb9169a…
06-03 14:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5a092c…
06-03 14:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0xfca32b…
06-03 14:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb40632…
06-03 14:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x694b0e…
06-03 14:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x880b77…
06-03 14:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	94¢	$3	0x78173b…
06-03 14:47:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x90f01d…
06-03 14:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xe0a015…
05-30 11:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4b664f…
05-30 11:00:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?	Yes	BUY	430	2¢	$10	0x8a88f9…
05-29 10:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xc84bb3…
05-29 10:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdadcac…
05-29 10:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x102fa4…
05-29 10:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x8a8d0f…
05-29 10:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x60256e…
05-29 10:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xb56a6b…
05-29 10:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0x5d11c8…
05-29 10:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6c7ecc…
05-29 10:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xaf3507…
05-29 10:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x0c9ca9…
05-29 10:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x6da962…
05-29 09:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x08644c…
05-29 09:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa5fd79…
05-29 09:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0a487d…
05-29 09:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb7bfc5…
05-29 09:52:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x81a843…
05-29 09:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x040d11…
05-29 09:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xad2512…
05-29 09:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x229a79…
05-29 09:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x4a4d7a…
05-29 09:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd64248…
05-29 09:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	11	78¢	$8	0x108da0…
05-29 09:20:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x770bbf…
05-29 09:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xca433c…
05-29 09:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe9d541…
05-29 09:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf916ab…
05-29 09:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$3	0x73f7ca…
05-29 09:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6b7c83…
05-29 09:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9fe616…
05-29 09:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x131c92…
05-29 09:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4c2350…
05-29 09:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7f5603…
05-29 09:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xdf8ee8…
05-29 09:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x99beca…
05-29 09:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfc0e1e…
05-29 09:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x189d52…
05-29 09:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x065ccb…
05-23 20:34:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x9138a3…
05-23 20:33:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0x05d784…
05-23 20:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x723c62…
05-23 20:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x87f873…
05-23 20:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa9c9a2…
05-23 20:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0x4d0022…
05-23 20:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xc5f5ba…
05-23 20:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x773f87…
05-23 20:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf9ca30…
05-23 20:24:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x7d46dd…
05-23 17:38:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	73	15¢	$11	0x4726b3…
05-23 17:38:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xff4f22…
05-13 02:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2cfc11…
05-13 02:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xdc6f29…
05-13 02:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x33dd3d…
05-13 02:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x7fc1b6…
05-13 02:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc7593d…
05-13 02:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x26a42a…
05-13 02:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x2fb51a…
05-13 02:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xc8b76e…
05-13 02:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x9805f5…