Fumbling-Affect — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.43K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

6,943

Trades

7,961

lifetime

Volume

$287.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-26 03:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 249 days

Categories

Other

83% 89% -$3,684

Sports

8% 91% -$109

Politics

5% 86% -$573

Crypto

3% 95% -$24

Tech

0% 91% -$40

Pop-Culture

0% 89% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+20	$15	94¢	$19	+$3	09-26 09:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	45	$2.9K	3,214	2,158	+1,056	Yes	-$77	03-06 15:22
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	14	$2.6K	2,611	2,611	+0	Down	+$7	02-16 08:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$2.0K	2,300	1,900	+400	No	-$6	05-29 01:23
lal cel rea 2026 03 07 rea	2	$1.8K	959	959	+0	Yes	+$86	03-06 22:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$1.7K	1,352	1,352	+0	Yes	+$11	06-12 06:39
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	27	$1.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	-$14	03-03 01:53
mls sea por 2026 07 16 spread away 1pt5	4	$1.3K	725	725	+0	Portland Timbers	-$82	07-17 04:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	12	$1.1K	1,350	950	+400	Yes	-$340	02-28 04:48
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	10	$786	600	600	+0	Yes	+$18	02-26 18:46
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$725	500	500	+0	Yes	+$5	05-23 21:54
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	7	$656	650	650	+0	Down	+$22	02-26 11:58
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	7	$654	600	600	+0	Down	+$6	05-15 11:50
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$640	400	400	+0	No	+$8	02-23 15:04
mex tij tig 2026 07 16 total 3pt5	1	$630	637	0	+637	Over	-$630	07-17 05:05
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	4	$618	444	444	+0	Yes	+$4	03-02 00:25
uel jag sab 2026 08 20 spread away 1pt5	2	$594	300	300	+0	Jagiellonia Białystok	+$5	08-20 18:00
col mid rij 2026 08 20 spread away 1pt5	3	$590	300	300	+0	FC Midtjylland	+$9	08-20 18:57
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 65 89	6	$572	550	550	+0	No	+$0	02-17 14:15
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 260 279	2	$559	550	550	+0	No	-$298	02-17 14:31
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	3	$529	584	584	+0	Yes	-$350	02-17 14:31
spx up or down on february 18 2026	2	$519	550	0	+550	Up	+$31	02-18 16:54
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$514	598	0	+598	Down	+$84	02-23 15:24
spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	4	$514	500	500	+0	Down	+$6	02-19 05:53
spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	8	$512	600	600	+0	Down	+$4	02-27 11:01
Will Anapolis FC GO win on 2026-08-10?	2	$495	250	250	+0	Yes	+$5	08-11 01:54
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	8	$477	300	300	+0	Yes	+$3	03-04 00:33
us forces enter iran by march 7	5	$439	300	300	+0	No	+$1	03-05 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 22?	2	$433	222	222	+0	Yes	+$9	08-22 18:25
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	9	$423	528	528	+0	Down	-$3	02-23 15:01
highest temperature in nyc on january 15 44 45f	4	$414	472	11	+461	No	-$374	01-15 05:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 03:23:33	Spread: Kings (-9.5)	Kings	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x6b9974…
10-26 03:22:29	Spread: Kings (-9.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc9f3bc…
10-26 02:19:42	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xdc476d…
10-26 02:12:35	Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)	Instituto AC Córdoba	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x67ac39…
10-26 02:11:51	Spread: Clube Náutico Capibaribe (-1.5)	EC Juventude	BUY	149	97¢	$145	0x606e62…
10-26 02:04:45	Spread: CF Pachuca (-2.5)	CF América	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x192e0a…
10-25 16:21:02	Spread: Atromitos Athinon (-1.5)	Aris Thessaloniki	BUY	120	96¢	$115	0xfc6bc2…
10-25 16:20:44	Spread: 1. FC Slovácko (-1.5)	AC Sparta Praha	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0xb392d6…
10-25 16:04:48	Spread: US Folgore Caratese (-1.5)	Calcio Lecco 1912	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0xeab4f6…
10-25 14:59:38	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Olympique de Marseille	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0xeebbcc…
10-25 14:59:17	Spread: Lyngby BK (-1.5)	FC Midtjylland	SELL	146	100¢	$146	0x1d5737…
10-25 14:55:24	Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0xe4e953…
10-25 13:37:14	Spread: 1. FC Slovácko (-1.5)	AC Sparta Praha	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x233133…
10-25 13:34:57	Spread: SBV Excelsior (-3.5)	Fortuna Sittard	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x1901e7…
10-25 13:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x8bd417…
10-25 12:49:03	Spread: Tromsø IL (-2.5)	Viking FK	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xb5e6a9…
10-25 12:39:27	Spread: Lyngby BK (-1.5)	FC Midtjylland	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x169701…
10-25 12:38:05	Spread: Tochigi City FC (-2.5)	Shōnan Bellmāre	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x76eab0…
10-25 09:29:33	Spread: Lyngby BK (-1.5)	FC Midtjylland	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x91238a…
10-25 09:24:30	FF Jaro vs. PK-35 Helsinki: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xbe969e…
10-25 08:42:08	Spread: SBV Excelsior (-3.5)	Fortuna Sittard	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0xc94c21…
10-25 08:41:14	Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)	FC Internazionale Milano	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x6a7687…
10-25 01:28:39	Spread: Tochigi City FC (-2.5)	Shōnan Bellmāre	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0x445d75…
10-25 01:28:03	Spread: Ventforet Kōfu (-2.5)	Ōita Trinita	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x48a023…
10-25 01:20:12	Will Bay FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x423ecf…
10-25 01:20:11	Will Bay FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x9191f0…
10-25 01:14:33	Will CA Huracán win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0x6ea635…
10-24 17:25:27	Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)	SS Lazio	BUY	150	98¢	$146	0x570c43…
10-24 17:24:45	Spread: FC Hegelmann Kaunas (-1.5)	FK Transinvest	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x39ef9a…
10-24 16:44:57	Will Austria Lustenau win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x964e8a…
10-24 16:10:12	Spread: Hapoel Haifa FC (-1.5)	Maccabi Tel Aviv FC	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x4dd2e1…
10-24 16:09:53	Spread: Barnsley FC (-2.5)	Reading FC	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xdefa16…
10-24 15:22:54	Esperance Sportive de Tunis vs. AL Swehly SC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x7f79b5…
10-24 15:03:26	Spread: RKS Radomiak Radom (-2.5)	Pogon Szczecin	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x17cb98…
10-24 15:02:33	Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)	Sheffield United FC	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xf94416…
10-24 13:27:09	Spread: FC Hegelmann Kaunas (-1.5)	FK Transinvest	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0xc9d6d6…
10-24 13:26:48	Spread: Wigan Athletic FC (-1.5)	Huddersfield Town AFC	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xfb0f31…
10-24 13:25:53	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa3e181…
10-24 13:25:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 24?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x060004…
10-24 13:20:03	Spread: Barnsley FC (-2.5)	Reading FC	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x8e3e41…
10-24 13:17:20	Spread: FK Tukums 2000/TSS (-1.5)	FK Liepaja	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x88b219…
10-24 10:05:59	Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)	Sheffield United FC	BUY	150	98¢	$148	0x49ae4a…
10-24 10:05:35	Spread: Meizhou Hakka (-1.5)	Changchun Yatai	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xadd7fd…
10-24 05:12:48	Spread: Wigan Athletic FC (-1.5)	Huddersfield Town AFC	BUY	67	98¢	$66	0x789aca…
10-24 04:59:35	Spread: FK Tukums 2000/TSS (-1.5)	FK Liepaja	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x2df547…
10-24 04:58:32	Spread: Meizhou Hakka (-1.5)	Changchun Yatai	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0x5e69d2…
10-24 03:50:00	Spread: North Carolina Courage (-2.5)	Portland Thorns FC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3d82c6…
10-24 03:48:02	Escorpiones de Belén vs. Sporting FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0xb5cb58…
10-24 03:46:57	Will Sporting FC win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xaf5fc3…
10-24 03:46:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x454ecf…
10-24 00:24:30	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-23?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xeaedcd…
10-23 06:11:03	Will SpaceX have fewer than 14 launches in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xce8b5d…
10-23 06:09:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x63c7be…
10-23 05:01:26	Spread: Clube do Remo (-1.5)	Cruzeiro EC	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0x8716b9…
10-23 04:58:41	Spread: Grenoble Foot 38 (-1.5)	Pau FC	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0xe1b689…
10-23 04:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x5f2f2e…
10-23 03:59:24	Zira FK vs. Sumqayit FK: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x201525…
10-23 03:53:17	Spread: Utah (-1.5)	Kraken	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x51adef…
10-23 03:49:41	Red Wings vs. Canucks	Red Wings	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xece3e4…
10-22 14:02:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0xc91897…
10-22 13:58:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa69740…
10-22 13:58:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x41b76b…
10-22 04:35:29	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0x179190…
10-22 04:32:39	Kings vs. Clippers	Clippers	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xff7cd2…
10-22 04:31:21	Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5)	Olympiakós SFP	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xe98d04…
10-22 04:23:57	Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 249.5	Under	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x1efc89…
10-22 04:22:24	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x7d098e…
10-22 04:19:32	Spread: SC União Torreense (-1.5)	Ferencvárosi TC	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x2add5f…
10-22 03:34:06	Suns vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x8905f3…
10-22 03:32:23	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x596b58…
10-21 14:28:14	Spread: El Qanah Club (-1.5)	El Ahly SC	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x72b4b4…
10-21 14:22:23	PK-35 Helsinki vs. FF Jaro: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xb9c468…
10-21 14:19:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xdca3e1…
10-20 23:59:45	CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	128	98¢	$125	0x91ae16…
10-20 23:57:14	Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)	CD Guadalajara	BUY	150	97¢	$145	0xdeae58…
10-20 17:20:33	Spread: ŠK Slovan Bratislava (-1.5)	AS Roma	BUY	122	99¢	$121	0x57693b…
10-20 17:19:06	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x6c280c…
10-20 04:05:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x3f62c1…
10-20 04:05:39	Guangzhou 2: Koki Matsuda vs Yi Zhou	Yi Zhou	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xb28b79…
10-20 02:32:42	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 152.5	Under	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xe76683…
10-20 02:12:59	Spread: Swindon Town FC (-1.5)	Barnet FC	BUY	75	95¢	$72	0x894eb1…
10-20 02:06:51	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 152.5	Under	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x167de3…
10-20 02:05:41	Spread: Orebro SK (-2.5)	IFK Norrkoping FK	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x64323f…
10-19 07:27:51	Will FK Tukums 2000/TSS win on 2026-10-19?	No	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0xc0ef65…
10-19 03:36:27	Spread: FK Livyi Bereh (-1.5)	FK Kharkiv	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xacf086…
10-19 03:30:45	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0x0b6072…
10-19 03:29:44	Spread: CDP Junior FC (-1.5)	AD Cali	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x85c25b…
10-19 03:28:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x2a60c7…
10-19 03:27:47	Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xabe117…
10-19 02:10:05	Spread: CSD Suchitepéquez (-1.5)	CD Marquense	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x85f022…
10-19 02:10:05	Spread: CSD Suchitepéquez (-1.5)	CD Marquense	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x7cf092…
10-19 02:08:57	Spread: CDP Junior FC (-1.5)	AD Cali	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xb92663…
10-18 09:24:21	Busan IPark vs. Jeonnam Dragons: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xbf0265…
10-18 09:24:03	Busan IPark vs. Jeonnam Dragons: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x3c195e…
10-17 05:23:26	chi2 wux jia 2026 10 17 spread away 2pt5	Wuxi Wugou	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x86d0cc…
10-17 05:20:52	Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)	Dalian Yingbo FC	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xcf85d2…
10-17 05:11:43	Will FC Imabari win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x313d1c…
10-17 05:09:22	Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x6e50e7…
10-17 05:09:16	Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xa9ba25…
10-17 01:26:47	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	43	0¢	$0	0x264dd1…