Determined-Mist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$423

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

48.6%

Resolved

578

Trades

8,917

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$145

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-01 23:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 22% +$40

Other

9% 45% -$252

Politics

7% 42% -$216

Sports

3% 30% +$16

Tech

1% 86% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 1076 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		+150	$138	97¢	$145	+$7	07-10 14:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba lac det 2026 01 10	12	$405	600	240	+360	Clippers	+$24	01-11 02:56
bitcoin above 76k on april 21	37	$402	730	551	+179	No	+$85	04-21 15:10
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$336	200	200	+0	No	$0	04-22 19:50
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	54	$326	200	200	+0	No	+$2	01-14 17:50
bitcoin above 92k on january 9	14	$306	498	298	+200	No	-$27	01-09 16:53
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$299	132	305	-173	No	-$44	03-19 00:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	4	$285	250	100	+150	No	+$31	04-06 18:53
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	17	$227	300	300	+0	No	+$11	04-24 16:00
bitcoin above 78k on april 22	10	$220	500	100	+400	Yes	-$84	04-22 13:45
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	1	$196	200	0	+200	No	+$4	01-24 21:50
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	1	$192	200	0	+200	Yes	+$8	06-07 21:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	24	$188	300	170	+130	Up	+$64	05-22 21:09
nfl gb chi 2026 01 10	2	$188	400	0	+400	Bears	+$12	01-11 02:00
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$176	100	100	+0	No	+$22	03-13 23:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 21:15 UTC	40	$175	700	182	+518	Up	+$153	06-17 21:20
bitcoin above 94k on january 15	3	$175	100	89	+11	Yes	+$4	01-14 19:19
will bitcoin dip to 68000 on march 6	11	$172	178	77	+101	Yes	+$57	03-06 17:33
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$172	200	0	+200	No	-$172	01-05 16:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 21:35 UTC	41	$168	1,056	188	+868	Up	+$466	09-25 21:39
atp fearnle oconnel 2026 01 10	9	$163	600	200	+400	Fearnley	-$53	01-11 01:36
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	37	$160	1,924	552	+1,372	Yes	-$63	03-17 00:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 00:05 UTC	45	$151	700	360	+339	Down	+$423	08-08 00:09
bitcoin above 92k on january 7	37	$148	1,000	715	+285	No	+$18	01-07 16:35
bitcoin above 76k on april 22	19	$146	348	150	+198	Yes	+$37	04-22 09:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	5	$138	150	0	+150	open	—	07-10 14:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 23:55 UTC	40	$133	600	25	+575	Up	-$18	08-08 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	19	$133	300	125	+175	Up	+$105	05-22 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 01:50 UTC	14	$122	200	149	+51	Up	+$68	03-19 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	37	$118	400	98	+302	Down	+$170	05-22 21:39
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 420 439	2	$118	120	0	+120	No	+$2	01-03 23:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 23:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb8c1e3…
10-01 23:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	159	6¢	$10	0xb307d9…
10-01 23:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9f0835…
10-01 23:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x583b3c…
10-01 23:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7c8d56…
10-01 23:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x2803b3…
10-01 23:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xf3ceeb…
10-01 23:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xef6403…
10-01 23:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x72097d…
10-01 23:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x5229d5…
10-01 23:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x0cf7cb…
10-01 23:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xfe486b…
10-01 23:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x07fdaf…
10-01 23:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xd40de3…
10-01 23:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x699e9c…
10-01 23:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x172486…
10-01 23:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x6ce80a…
10-01 23:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x4acfaa…
10-01 23:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xc79ce2…
10-01 23:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	157	4¢	$6	0x705971…
10-01 23:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xaf4568…
10-01 23:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x93b6e0…
10-01 23:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x7b9930…
10-01 23:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	32	8¢	$3	0x46e212…
10-01 23:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0x33153e…
10-01 23:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x2d2521…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xf108cd…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xbceb45…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xaf6ee3…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x497320…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x32b100…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x282f5f…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x15306e…
10-01 23:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	120	4¢	$5	0x0184b2…
10-01 23:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x92a576…
10-01 23:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x897492…
10-01 23:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x62f843…
10-01 23:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x39e403…
10-01 23:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x93b9da…
10-01 23:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x824fcb…
10-01 23:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xe8daaf…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xd6eac5…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd24dc7…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0xaaec7c…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x892ede…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x603a8c…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x17e232…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x0ef043…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x0b62b6…
10-01 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x084939…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0xeaded9…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xe3a4ed…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xcec403…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7c314b…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x49d8d1…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x47f961…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x3fa1fd…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x36e339…
10-01 23:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x0990a0…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xc5f447…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xa1027d…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x411992…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x2ae2a3…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x06e783…
10-01 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x063a3b…
10-01 23:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	31	8¢	$3	0x0e783a…
10-01 23:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xac4cce…
10-01 23:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x875a50…
10-01 23:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x7b85b8…
10-01 23:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x326475…
10-01 23:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x3fa1da…
10-01 23:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x3f0737…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xc3984c…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xc31ebc…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xbe3709…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x9fde4f…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x634dcf…
10-01 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	75	5¢	$4	0x5e38a7…
10-01 23:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	51	7¢	$4	0x70ab90…
10-01 23:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x0512cd…
10-01 23:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0xe78adf…
10-01 23:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xd43011…
10-01 23:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	38	7¢	$3	0x2e9e64…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf8c540…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xd1cb5f…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xcd7039…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xc7b70b…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xa00cfa…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x9ff6d8…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x983274…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x95555c…
10-01 23:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x6e380e…
10-01 23:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x7ce73b…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xe90b9e…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xd866e9…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	86	7¢	$6	0xbf292d…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa2121f…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x6c977f…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x5bd089…
10-01 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x31a9e7…