Lighthearted-Strand — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

96.1%

Resolved

110

Trades

148

lifetime

Volume

$979

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-27 17:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

49% 93% +$0

Politics

28% 80% -$35

Crypto

18% 100% +$1

Tech

5% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+2	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-27 17:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	08-13 01:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:47
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	10-06 06:54
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:54
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-14 06:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-13 01:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-09 17:06
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-05 15:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-22 00:14
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$33	34	0	+34	Yes	+$0	08-20 18:44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$30	35	0	+35	No	-$30	10-11 21:56
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	09-16 02:02
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$29	30	0	+30	Yes	+$1	09-10 10:54
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	2	$29	14	14	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:17
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	08-31 21:10
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in September?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	09-28 12:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	09-15 04:58
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	09-01 11:02
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-29 21:18
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$18	18	0	+18	Yes	+$0	05-30 12:24
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	08-17 19:56
aapl above 310 on march 31 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	03-31 00:48
will googl reach 390 in june 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	06-29 09:11
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:01
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$14	14	0	+14	Yes	+$0	07-31 09:14
pltr above 160 on february 27 2026	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	02-25 14:19
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	09-15 08:20
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	10-01 04:11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	09-27 15:18
will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	01-25 18:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 17:20:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xf0aa8d…
10-15 07:11:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xec586f…
10-11 21:56:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x2cd660…
10-06 06:54:24	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x28cb75…
10-01 04:11:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7bdbe6…
09-28 12:39:18	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in September?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb0decb…
09-27 15:18:30	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0c62a5…
09-22 15:54:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xf82157…
09-16 02:02:04	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x28fd6e…
09-15 08:20:33	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x7713c3…
09-15 04:58:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x046fc3…
09-12 01:04:46	Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x370ee9…
09-10 10:54:51	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x1bb9e6…
09-07 12:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x63aca7…
09-07 01:40:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x73e918…
09-06 03:08:40	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xea378b…
09-04 14:57:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf095bf…
09-04 14:20:13	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$0	0x97cc24…
09-01 11:02:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x437f4a…
09-01 02:12:55	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x53cfb7…
08-31 21:10:03	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x61b219…
08-31 20:17:49	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7755dd…
08-31 20:01:19	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd39331…
08-27 18:58:45	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xebdb91…
08-27 18:58:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x540fed…
08-27 18:58:16	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x716e6a…
08-27 18:57:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x0b65d0…
08-27 18:57:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x717d82…
08-27 18:56:55	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x336c21…
08-27 18:56:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xd0d6f8…
08-27 18:56:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x8d89e2…
08-27 18:55:40	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xeb700b…
08-27 18:55:27	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xe9b50a…
08-27 18:55:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x600560…
08-27 18:54:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xf8d080…
08-27 18:54:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xe8d409…
08-27 18:53:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x3cee3d…
08-27 18:53:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x4eac50…
08-27 11:55:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x79569d…
08-27 07:47:09	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb26608…
08-27 07:18:28	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbbf624…
08-27 06:40:24	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9bb257…
08-25 15:54:06	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0xcceac5…
08-25 06:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	273	0¢	$0	0xdc07c0…
08-25 06:52:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xc4b5ab…
08-25 04:53:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xe4e20a…
08-25 03:51:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xf04135…
08-22 18:40:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x8bc8ee…
08-22 00:14:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3b1f58…
08-20 18:44:31	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x077d64…
08-19 16:02:22	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfc5835…
08-17 19:56:45	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xf3f103…
08-14 06:31:21	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xb0ab5f…
08-13 01:47:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xd08b9d…
08-13 01:21:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x76e409…
08-11 14:44:06	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x26c81b…
08-09 17:06:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x69b06e…
08-05 15:41:41	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xcb6b18…
08-04 21:27:59	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x893eb2…
07-31 09:14:57	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x7b0f77…
07-30 14:19:53	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	Yes	BUY	310	0¢	$0	0x545f5e…
07-30 10:20:14	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe0b827…
07-29 15:54:03	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x13f234…
07-29 07:27:56	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xef67d3…
07-29 05:00:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5d0c3b…
07-29 04:52:47	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x69ab42…
07-29 04:13:56	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8db7d6…
07-28 10:41:16	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d5928…
07-28 06:24:27	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xda1866…
07-28 04:42:09	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9f66ac…
07-27 00:43:43	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7a95f4…
07-26 11:53:25	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0d426…
07-26 09:52:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x99c710…
07-25 22:01:07	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6a01c6…
07-23 16:38:45	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6b477e…
07-23 07:32:37	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x068015…
07-22 22:20:15	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x91aeae…
06-29 21:18:49	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xef1dd5…
06-29 09:11:49	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3f148b…
05-30 12:24:57	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x80e65e…
05-12 11:04:36	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe53422…
05-11 23:17:35	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3810fe…
05-10 21:19:21	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9df093…
05-10 12:58:32	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x097295…
05-09 22:38:21	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x442f4c…
05-09 12:43:31	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x914372…
05-09 01:23:23	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf6aee7…
05-08 09:52:45	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb74809…
05-07 11:21:45	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4e0636…
05-07 10:19:00	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x191ae9…
05-05 23:31:56	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xbe4a1f…
04-22 05:16:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x217807…
04-21 08:28:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2c0ec8…
04-20 07:56:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xce3640…
04-20 00:07:06	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x02e792…
04-19 07:26:52	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x27349d…
04-18 19:34:50	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x1a54a7…
04-17 13:48:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xea65be…
04-17 05:29:04	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0c63b4…
04-16 09:04:50	Will BNB dip to $400 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5dcf9b…