Nice-Cowbell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

70.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,195

lifetime

Volume

$2.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-15

last 07-05 10:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 57% +$2

Politics

16% — —

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 443 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+8	$6	62¢	$5	$-1	07-05 10:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	2	$280	142	142	+0	open	—	04-17 16:10
btc updown 5m 1776441000	15	$39	219	0	+219	open	—	04-17 15:51
btc updown 5m 1776953100	22	$38	73	38	+36	open	—	04-23 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	17	$38	74	69	+4	open	—	04-28 09:29
btc updown 5m 1776963000	13	$36	62	24	+38	open	—	04-23 16:55
btc updown 5m 1776442500	14	$33	33	30	+3	open	—	04-17 16:20
btc updown 5m 1776444600	15	$30	73	41	+32	open	—	04-17 16:54
btc updown 5m 1777013400	15	$26	50	47	+2	open	—	04-24 06:54
btc updown 5m 1776445200	11	$25	44	23	+20	open	—	04-17 17:03
btc updown 5m 1776446100	15	$25	61	33	+28	open	—	04-17 17:18
btc updown 5m 1776444300	16	$25	78	17	+61	open	—	04-17 16:48
btc updown 5m 1776954900	17	$24	58	30	+28	open	—	04-23 14:39
btc updown 5m 1776954300	17	$24	78	22	+56	open	—	04-23 14:30
btc updown 5m 1776962100	14	$24	68	9	+59	open	—	04-23 16:38
btc updown 5m 1776952800	16	$24	43	30	+13	open	—	04-23 14:04
btc updown 5m 1777045200	16	$23	118	42	+77	open	—	04-24 15:44
btc updown 5m 1776953700	16	$23	46	21	+26	open	—	04-23 14:18
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$22	18	18	+0	open	—	03-23 15:59
btc updown 5m 1776443700	15	$22	89	2	+87	open	—	04-17 16:38
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	03-23 07:49
btc updown 5m 1774137900	4	$21	23	23	+0	open	—	03-22 00:05
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	2	$21	19	19	+0	open	—	03-23 15:57
btc updown 5m 1777039800	7	$21	26	19	+7	open	—	04-24 14:12
btc updown 5m 1776446400	18	$20	102	0	+102	open	—	04-17 17:21
btc updown 5m 1776447300	13	$20	65	13	+52	open	—	04-17 17:38
btc updown 5m 1777014300	13	$20	74	13	+61	open	—	04-24 07:08
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$20	52	52	+0	open	—	03-25 09:53
btc updown 5m 1776445800	15	$20	120	0	+120	open	—	04-17 17:12
btc updown 5m 1776447000	12	$20	94	0	+94	open	—	04-17 17:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	23	$20	172	4	+168	open	—	04-28 07:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 10:54:34	btc updown 5m 1783248600	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2ba40d…
07-05 10:48:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x19147d…
05-20 20:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x001c9f…
05-20 20:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xf49f51…
05-20 20:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x70db51…
05-20 20:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x57f9c0…
05-20 20:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x902d7e…
05-20 20:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xb4fe24…
05-20 20:36:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc0c05b…
05-20 20:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xeea13d…
05-20 20:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xf12510…
05-20 20:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xc28461…
05-20 20:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x55af83…
05-20 20:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x43d911…
05-20 20:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x12a75f…
05-20 19:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x5e5fae…
05-20 19:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x79b221…
05-20 19:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x9594a3…
05-20 19:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x22d865…
05-20 19:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x7eee15…
05-20 19:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xa9f608…
05-20 19:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xa37eec…
05-20 19:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x3d7b89…
05-20 19:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xd27b81…
05-20 19:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x22758b…
05-20 19:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2416cd…
05-20 19:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x36af96…
05-20 19:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf63a93…
05-20 19:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x18a532…
05-20 18:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x179996…
05-20 18:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7b8b14…
05-20 17:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xa23956…
05-20 17:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0ac52d…
05-20 17:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x38634e…
05-20 17:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xefd8ba…
05-20 17:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x540c88…
05-20 16:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xfafecc…
05-20 16:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7e9b79…
05-20 16:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x6c0371…
05-20 16:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x63be62…
05-20 16:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xd07a07…
05-20 15:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x8a948b…
05-20 15:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x23648f…
05-20 15:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x740d07…
05-20 15:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x680034…
05-20 15:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x412c7e…
05-20 15:15:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x506d7a…
05-20 15:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xf21f29…
05-20 15:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xacacd7…
05-20 13:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x4886c7…
05-20 13:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x65b07c…
05-20 13:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x4f0674…
05-17 18:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x950edb…
05-17 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xe651b5…
05-17 17:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xcfb8d5…
05-17 17:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xdfd09f…
05-17 12:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xdcdac3…
05-17 12:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x77598f…
05-17 12:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x7ccde5…
05-17 12:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xa95a42…
05-17 11:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xf6d315…
05-17 11:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xafb4b3…
05-17 11:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x398985…
05-17 11:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcb212d…
05-17 11:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xb2e121…
05-17 11:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xc7e72e…
05-17 11:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x3dea7e…
05-17 11:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x95be3a…
05-17 11:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x0399d0…
05-07 10:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xfdd1e4…
05-07 10:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xcfeda7…
05-07 10:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x747bdd…
05-07 09:01:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x0f20ae…
05-07 09:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6201b6…
05-06 18:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x969541…
05-06 18:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x54c914…
05-06 17:39:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0x33c084…
05-05 15:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x32d61c…
05-05 15:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xdeff30…
05-05 15:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf23072…
05-05 14:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x64cc24…
05-05 09:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x64109b…
05-05 09:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x168172…
05-05 09:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x6506ae…
05-05 09:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7416ff…
05-05 09:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6a6604…
05-05 09:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x3c5b2b…
05-05 09:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x893b5e…
05-05 09:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xcf954e…
05-05 09:08:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x0f7a30…
05-05 08:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xe573e8…
05-05 08:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6ba1e2…
05-05 08:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8d8334…
05-05 08:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcff23d…
05-05 08:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9750e3…
05-05 08:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xac6238…
05-05 08:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xc0787d…
05-05 08:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x257729…
05-04 15:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x46de71…
05-04 15:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0xf3b430…