Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$3.51K

Unrealized P&L

-$52

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

104

175 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$7.13K

$8.61K lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$25

3 positions

First seen

2026-08-13

last 10-30 08:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

92% 62% +$3,896

Tech

7% 83% +$3

Crypto

1% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+98	$42	25¢	$24	-$17	10-07 19:57
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+41	$30	1¢	$0	-$30	09-29 06:28
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+19	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	09-30 13:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	18	$2.3K	1,769	1,769	+0	No	+$1,039	10-10 20:50
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	16	$1.9K	3,071	0	+3,071	Yes	+$1,171	10-12 20:31
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	37	$1.3K	2,341	3	+2,338	Yes	+$1,048	10-11 11:41
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	12	$1.1K	1,438	0	+1,438	Yes	+$343	10-13 11:04
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	9	$260	310	10	+300	No	+$58	09-30 19:39
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 9, 2026?	3	$211	130	130	+0	Yes	+$6	09-01 19:54
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	3	$172	390	0	+390	Yes	+$218	09-01 20:21
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 23, 2026?	3	$112	166	50	+116	No	+$19	09-22 16:21
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	4	$109	201	201	+0	Yes	-$107	10-07 17:52
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	4	$98	66	66	+0	No	+$10	10-10 16:51
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	2	$94	56	56	+0	Yes	+$4	10-10 16:24
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	1	$88	103	0	+103	Yes	+$16	09-15 15:40
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	1	$80	100	0	+100	No	+$20	10-27 15:01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	1	$80	90	0	+90	No	+$10	10-27 14:57
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	2	$70	94	0	+94	Yes	+$24	09-28 17:36
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	1	$58	100	0	+100	open	—	10-30 08:15
next google gemini flash model released by august 13 2026	1	$50	57	0	+57	Yes	+$7	08-13 16:58
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	2	$48	41	41	+0	Yes	-$12	10-06 12:51
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	2	$43	23	23	+0	No	+$3	09-24 18:36
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	3	$42	99	1	+98	open	—	10-07 19:57
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	3	$42	86	53	+33	No	-$5	09-29 08:27
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	5	$35	51	51	+0	No	+$19	09-21 17:18
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	6	$34	52	1	+51	open	—	10-07 19:58
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$30	41	0	+41	open	—	09-29 06:28
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	1	$30	41	0	+41	open	—	10-27 14:49
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	5	$29	116	116	+0	No	-$15	09-29 17:26
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$26	40	0	+40	Yes	+$14	10-19 16:28
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	Yes	+$2	09-22 06:24
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	1	$20	25	0	+25	Yes	+$5	09-22 06:23
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	3	$18	26	11	+14	No	+$2	08-27 19:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 08:15:40	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x9faf98…
10-27 15:01:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x650993…
10-27 14:57:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	90	89¢	$80	0xebc7da…
10-27 14:49:21	Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0xf4d2e5…
10-19 16:28:33	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x2bfdce…
10-19 16:26:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	54¢	$12	0xb93400…
10-15 21:02:59	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	6¢	$5	0x96fb72…
10-15 15:32:58	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	9¢	$8	0x34f6d4…
10-13 11:04:46	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd50617…
10-13 11:03:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x5e219f…
10-12 20:31:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	979	80¢	$783	0x249ad8…
10-12 20:30:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb30576…
10-12 20:30:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x8b3335…
10-12 20:30:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x80675c…
10-12 20:29:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	78¢	$35	0xb9bdf4…
10-12 20:27:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	358	75¢	$269	0x3173d5…
10-12 20:23:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xef9000…
10-12 20:23:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	79¢	$196	0x4a278c…
10-12 20:20:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x97dc23…
10-12 20:19:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	75¢	$130	0xaae737…
10-12 20:19:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	75¢	$206	0x537009…
10-12 20:14:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x22ff60…
10-12 19:55:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x332619…
10-11 11:41:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x874543…
10-11 11:41:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x7ff530…
10-11 11:41:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x3b317d…
10-11 11:39:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xeceea8…
10-11 11:39:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x4fab03…
10-11 11:39:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x822122…
10-11 11:39:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x48c07b…
10-11 11:39:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xba091f…
10-11 11:39:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa2e450…
10-11 10:37:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	63¢	$85	0x2b667c…
10-11 10:12:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf91e7f…
10-11 10:12:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd20da3…
10-11 10:12:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xaca376…
10-11 10:12:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa504c5…
10-11 10:12:27	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xdacc3c…
10-11 10:12:27	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x859b36…
10-11 10:12:27	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6fb613…
10-11 10:12:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x96fb96…
10-11 10:12:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x16bc29…
10-11 10:12:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x019614…
10-11 10:12:05	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x0e3310…
10-11 10:10:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x19ff52…
10-11 09:09:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0xdcfabf…
10-11 05:58:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0x2dbb57…
10-11 05:43:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	50¢	$28	0xab1367…
10-11 05:29:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	56¢	$45	0xc4ab63…
10-11 05:25:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x0469a7…
10-10 22:17:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0d869a…
10-10 21:14:04	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	376	50¢	$188	0x602617…
10-10 21:12:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,008	53¢	$534	0xb0003c…
10-10 21:12:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xf93e1e…
10-10 21:12:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	53¢	$35	0x7b75a0…
10-10 20:50:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	431	99¢	$426	0xd8544a…
10-10 20:46:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$494	0xb74441…
10-10 20:04:31	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x221bb6…
10-10 20:00:49	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x29a1d8…
10-10 19:58:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	48¢	$101	0x9e3f76…
10-10 19:51:06	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x6d456b…
10-10 19:47:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	563	50¢	$280	0xdae61f…
10-10 19:47:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x468622…
10-10 19:46:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xa2e722…
10-10 19:46:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb05755…
10-10 19:10:07	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x539378…
10-10 19:10:07	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x45d0b5…
10-10 16:52:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x1d2eb0…
10-10 16:51:10	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x49e2ca…
10-10 16:50:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xa4c0c2…
10-10 16:46:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x81df68…
10-10 16:35:01	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x5de949…
10-10 16:25:19	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0xdf6bb6…
10-10 16:24:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	89¢	$49	0x96fb22…
10-10 15:51:34	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xed7844…
10-10 15:48:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb7eba8…
10-10 15:29:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	920	53¢	$488	0xfc4acf…
10-10 02:02:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	62¢	$43	0x19acc7…
10-10 02:01:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	62¢	$128	0xe44ab3…
10-09 23:02:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	176	99¢	$174	0x4e6cd6…
10-09 07:59:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xfa7f8b…
10-07 20:19:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	221	45¢	$99	0x8ea036…
10-07 19:58:43	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x5a5148…
10-07 19:57:52	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x1d3528…
10-07 19:57:05	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x92b6c6…
10-07 17:56:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x0650f6…
10-07 17:52:09	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	SELL	201	0¢	$1	0x88b841…
10-07 17:25:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	281	25¢	$70	0xc62606…
10-07 17:15:20	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	39	9¢	$4	0xcf6912…
10-07 16:58:58	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x3c826f…
10-07 15:32:19	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xda3761…
10-07 14:41:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	735	40¢	$294	0xb4536b…
10-07 14:08:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	282	25¢	$70	0x6e8b2d…
10-07 14:03:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	37¢	$58	0xd65f98…
10-07 12:56:52	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xe083bf…
10-07 08:48:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	69¢	$200	0x8897e1…
10-07 08:46:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	43¢	$20	0x08bdde…
10-07 07:09:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0xf9ab17…
10-07 07:08:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	33	66¢	$22	0x3d4089…
10-06 19:11:02	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	35¢	$19	0xbd2ec9…