Elementary-Trust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$14

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 12:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 95% -$1

Other

48% 97% -$2

Politics

0% 33% -$7

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No		+14	$14	100¢	$14	+$0	10-27 12:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 70k on april 2	1	$108	108	+108	No	+$0	04-02 09:13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	05-07 09:29
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 115 139	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	03-25 02:27
bitcoin above 82k on march 20	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	03-19 07:50
ethereum above 2300 on february 14	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	02-14 03:23
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 215 239	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	03-15 07:15
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 540 559	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	03-11 02:53
bitcoin above 70k on april 11	1	$106	106	+106	Yes	+$0	04-11 10:59
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 240plus	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	02-28 08:50
bitcoin above 72k on april 21	1	$105	105	+105	Yes	+$0	04-21 11:09
bitcoin above 78k on february 7	1	$105	105	+105	No	+$0	02-07 07:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26?	1	$105	105	+105	Yes	+$0	04-26 06:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	1	$105	105	+105	No	+$0	04-30 08:12
bitcoin above 62k on march 4	1	$105	105	+105	Yes	+$0	03-04 10:55
ethereum above 2800 on january 10	1	$105	105	+105	Yes	+$0	01-10 08:18
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 215 239	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	04-16 09:22
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 300 319	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	01-06 09:03
bitcoin above 58k on april 8	1	$104	104	+104	Yes	+$0	04-07 08:52
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	03-29 06:30
bitcoin above 98k on january 24	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	01-23 08:22
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 620 639	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	01-27 09:16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	05-11 02:49
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 0 39	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	01-15 09:55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	06-02 02:16
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	05-30 06:34
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	05-23 02:39
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	05-27 02:25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	05-13 07:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	05-16 07:02
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	06-06 08:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:36:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc42c2a…
09-27 11:25:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x54ce7d…
09-27 11:23:26	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xe5cab6…
08-08 09:43:49	will wti dip to 30 in august 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xaa5d11…
06-10 02:50:25	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x0af32b…
06-06 08:53:19	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xbf52a1…
06-06 08:53:04	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,895	0¢	$4	0xfd5cc6…
06-02 02:16:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x4bf627…
05-30 06:34:33	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xfc0b9d…
05-27 02:25:47	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x51714a…
05-23 02:39:53	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x5684a7…
05-16 07:02:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x886f79…
05-13 07:39:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x25ec4c…
05-13 07:39:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	1,830	0¢	$4	0xa6f512…
05-11 02:49:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x735c99…
05-11 02:49:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0xc35832…
05-07 09:29:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x111ec0…
05-07 09:28:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	311	1¢	$2	0x7a892f…
04-30 08:12:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xe26659…
04-26 06:47:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x1f098d…
04-21 11:09:56	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x18fef7…
04-16 09:22:50	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 215 239	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xed8166…
04-16 09:22:40	highest temperature in nyc on april 16 2026 96forhigher	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6bef53…
04-16 09:22:26	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xea0c99…
04-11 10:59:07	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x886784…
04-07 08:52:09	bitcoin above 58k on april 8	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x2850bc…
04-07 08:51:59	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb926d3…
04-07 08:51:53	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6467ec…
04-07 08:51:47	highest temperature in london on april 7 2026 25c	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf5047d…
04-02 09:13:27	bitcoin above 70k on april 2	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x22500e…
03-29 06:30:34	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x7afbb3…
03-29 06:30:22	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x545ca5…
03-29 06:30:12	elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 165 189	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe316fb…
03-25 02:27:47	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 115 139	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x3518c2…
03-19 07:50:47	bitcoin above 82k on march 20	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x12af45…
03-15 07:15:05	elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 215 239	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xd23d37…
03-11 02:53:51	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 540 559	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x02ebca…
03-04 10:55:03	bitcoin above 62k on march 4	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xbe5b8e…
03-04 10:54:51	will mistral have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5065a4…
03-04 10:54:41	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 90 114	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9bb88f…
02-28 08:50:55	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 240plus	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x2a2eb3…
02-14 03:23:55	ethereum above 2300 on february 14	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xacae65…
02-07 07:03:49	bitcoin above 78k on february 7	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x67b916…
02-01 03:24:18	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 540 559	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xdc8856…
02-01 03:24:10	bitcoin above 86k on february 1	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xad50b0…
02-01 03:23:56	will capcut photo video editor be 1 free app in the us apple app store on february 6	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfb5195…
02-01 03:23:42	will zai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xafe138…
01-27 09:16:19	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 620 639	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x7902ce…
01-23 08:22:00	bitcoin above 98k on january 24	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xa95cf9…
01-19 11:00:32	ethereum above 2800 on january 20	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xa39ecf…
01-19 11:00:22	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c90db…
01-19 11:00:14	will the price of ethereum be between 2800 2900 on january 19	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6bbb62…
01-15 09:55:18	elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 0 39	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbff7e4…
01-15 09:55:02	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1160 1199	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1718af…
01-15 09:54:56	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb4b1b0…
01-10 08:18:06	ethereum above 2800 on january 10	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x0de058…
01-06 09:03:13	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 300 319	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xb4ea75…
01-06 09:02:59	will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x94a54a…
01-06 09:02:29	will grok 4pt20 be released on january 6 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb902fe…