Disastrous-Forgery — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

14 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$28

$28 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 19:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% 0% $-3

Crypto

37% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?	No	-5	$-2	39¢	$-2	+$1	05-05 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?	No	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	05-05 03:10
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 6?	No	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	05-05 02:15
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5?	No	-4	$-3	0¢	$-0	+$3	05-05 01:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 19:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x608eec…
05-05 19:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x799c25…
05-05 19:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x596449…
05-05 19:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x1d791d…
05-05 16:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x31bfc4…
05-05 06:55:52	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 5?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x3d3635…
05-05 06:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x2933ff…
05-05 03:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x36d02a…
05-05 02:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 6?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x51aaf4…
05-05 01:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x890fb8…
05-05 01:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x355bd9…
05-05 01:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xfc8825…
05-04 22:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 4?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xb17abd…
05-04 22:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 4?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x300b75…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	4	$2.03K	43	05-05 19:58
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	3	$846	22	05-05 19:58
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	3	$816	40	05-05 19:58
(anonymous) 0x5083…b0ea	3	$503	6	05-05 19:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	2	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	05-05 19:47
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 4?	1	$3	3,000	0	+3,000	No	$-3	05-04 22:59
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 4?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-04 22:54
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5?	1	$3	0	4	-4	open	—	05-05 01:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	2	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	05-05 19:38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?	1	$3	0	4	-4	open	—	05-05 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on May 6?	1	$2	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 01:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-05 16:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	Down	$-2	05-05 06:05
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 5?	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-05 06:55
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 6?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-05 02:15
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-05 03:10