Murky-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.9%

Resolved

Trades

196

lifetime

Volume

$247

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 05-16 19:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 57% $-0

Sports

3% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	3	$14	13	13	+0	open	—	05-15 00:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$7	8	7	+0	open	—	04-27 10:03
will bitcoin reach 79k on april 23	6	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-24 01:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	4	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	3	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-10 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET	3	$5	11	0	+11	Down	+$6	05-08 20:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 21:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 23:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-25 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	4	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	05-07 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	4	$4	6	2	+4	Up	$-2	05-12 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 00:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	4	$4	3	3	+0	Up	$-0	05-12 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	3	$3	3	2	+1	Up	$-1	05-07 12:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 12:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	2	$3	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 13:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	3	$3	21	2	+18	Down	$-1	05-08 12:56
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-02 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 09:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 14:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-24 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 12:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	05-14 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 16:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 19:53:00	UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)	Daniel Barez	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xe9db29…
05-15 15:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd20fca…
05-15 13:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5af7aa…
05-15 13:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x04023a…
05-15 13:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd9623f…
05-15 12:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xdaf6d8…
05-15 11:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xafc3b1…
05-15 11:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x35bc5b…
05-15 10:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x469c51…
05-15 10:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x9abf06…
05-15 09:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3a9605…
05-15 09:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9564c0…
05-15 00:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0582cd…
05-15 00:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xc4e293…
05-15 00:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc404ba…
05-15 00:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x865986…
05-15 00:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x7b4bfe…
05-15 00:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf3aede…
05-15 00:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x0b1427…
05-14 23:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xedc1d7…
05-14 23:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe519e9…
05-14 23:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4ec5b5…
05-14 22:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x721d42…
05-14 17:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x8e952e…
05-14 17:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8d7e89…
05-14 17:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x6cdf0c…
05-14 17:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0x65c526…
05-14 16:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x987d96…
05-14 15:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe8fe80…
05-13 19:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x73ff7a…
05-13 19:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5ca0f1…
05-13 19:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfa655f…
05-13 17:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc9d840…
05-13 16:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x448af4…
05-13 16:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x42e51b…
05-13 14:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa8b54e…
05-13 12:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x609bc5…
05-13 12:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9d6dfe…
05-13 12:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x669629…
05-13 11:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x82de67…
05-12 19:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd99476…
05-12 19:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x58c68e…
05-12 16:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x97ac9c…
05-12 16:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xea1fb4…
05-12 15:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0x02482b…
05-12 15:22:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x03ca9b…
05-12 14:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xd856e7…
05-12 14:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc222f2…
05-12 14:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0xf38654…
05-12 14:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x36cfe6…
05-12 14:28:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa6a296…
05-12 12:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xef4455…
05-12 12:27:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x397532…
05-12 12:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x68619b…
05-12 12:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7ccd7b…
05-10 18:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x481b2a…
05-10 18:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7f4729…
05-10 17:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6de814…
05-10 16:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x1d510f…
05-10 16:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1f5dfd…
05-10 16:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1bfc33…
05-10 09:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb6945d…
05-10 09:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb59cd6…
05-10 08:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xce5e78…
05-10 08:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x3e22fd…
05-10 08:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf57cd2…
05-09 18:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8152df…
05-09 17:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xdc341d…
05-09 16:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdffa06…
05-08 23:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa6fdda…
05-08 22:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4c697b…
05-08 22:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xca8c7f…
05-08 22:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xff22b1…
05-08 21:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x239bd5…
05-08 20:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4cb84a…
05-08 20:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x376f7f…
05-08 20:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x514efd…
05-08 18:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x219088…
05-08 18:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x26f83a…
05-08 18:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x61497f…
05-08 17:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xcce647…
05-08 16:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0968a8…
05-08 15:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x8bb186…
05-08 14:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x79a46e…
05-08 13:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xa6a249…
05-08 13:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf14d7a…
05-08 12:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x1c7f03…
05-08 12:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xa78c1c…
05-08 12:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2dae0d…
05-08 11:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xbf231f…
05-08 11:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x928626…
05-08 10:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x315790…
05-07 21:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x18e456…
05-07 21:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd67ef6…
05-07 21:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xe81da8…
05-07 20:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa35e33…
05-07 17:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xc94c8d…
05-07 17:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x200c0d…
05-07 17:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xbceef0…
05-07 17:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd213dc…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	102	$24.5K	996	05-16 21:40
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	93	$45.3K	2,711	05-15 15:12
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	92	$14.9K	2,592	05-15 15:13
Near-Strike 0x679c…afff	89	$18.6K	3,725	05-15 15:13
Orderly-Balance 0xea58…520c	83	$4.47K	179	05-15 15:12
Tangible-Friendship 0x21d0…e8d7	82	$14.2K	1,660	05-15 15:14
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	82	$5.78K	1,351	05-15 15:12
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	81	$90.7K	8,475	05-15 15:14