Careless-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

337

lifetime

Volume

$889

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 05-16 17:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 100% +$1

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 128 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1774608000	3	$24	27	17	+10	open	—	03-27 10:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	5	$17	23	0	+23	open	—	05-15 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	6	$14	16	0	+16	open	—	05-16 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$12	14	0	+14	open	—	05-15 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	4	$12	23	0	+23	open	—	05-16 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$11	28	0	+28	open	—	05-15 05:57
btc updown 5m 1774608600	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	03-27 10:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-15 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-15 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	05-16 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-16 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-16 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-16 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-15 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	4	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 15:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	3	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-15 11:19
btc updown 5m 1774608300	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	03-27 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	3	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-15 06:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	05-16 15:14
will trump say hormuz during cabinet meeting on march 26	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	03-26 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-15 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-15 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 14:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 17:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x590563…
05-16 17:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x806198…
05-16 17:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x78b027…
05-16 15:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x78e042…
05-16 15:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x380da8…
05-16 15:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x406819…
05-16 15:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6ee8e…
05-16 15:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x11d0af…
05-16 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1a0975…
05-16 15:33:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x207504…
05-16 15:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa27bcf…
05-16 15:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x93cd6b…
05-16 15:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8cbccb…
05-16 15:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2bb136…
05-16 15:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x337ba5…
05-16 15:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x0db1d4…
05-16 15:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x09ff61…
05-16 15:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9f32c3…
05-16 15:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6e1869…
05-16 15:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9c85e1…
05-16 15:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5317db…
05-16 15:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xbe1dad…
05-16 15:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x647439…
05-16 14:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7a585e…
05-16 14:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x8a7e7c…
05-16 14:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x596f1d…
05-16 14:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xf9a2f8…
05-16 14:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe22921…
05-16 14:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xca39e0…
05-16 14:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x220c5b…
05-16 14:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xec43c1…
05-16 14:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x065efa…
05-16 14:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xfe7aef…
05-16 14:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xbc09a3…
05-16 14:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x7caa0a…
05-16 14:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb6c7e9…
05-16 14:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4e838a…
05-16 14:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6dc468…
05-16 14:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x523b8b…
05-16 14:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1c84d4…
05-16 14:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x58bcbc…
05-16 14:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x4d27bd…
05-16 14:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6b7583…
05-16 14:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa662eb…
05-16 14:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x15c5bc…
05-16 14:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe53bc6…
05-16 14:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x095d66…
05-16 14:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x87664c…
05-16 13:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2c1b23…
05-16 13:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5822f8…
05-16 13:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd7d84c…
05-16 13:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3e7d46…
05-16 13:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8c67cf…
05-16 13:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7a3b7a…
05-16 13:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8c9875…
05-16 13:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc5ac6a…
05-16 13:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x934859…
05-16 13:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x7cd212…
05-16 13:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xef78b9…
05-16 13:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb15445…
05-16 13:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x53eb6f…
05-16 13:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x2a05fc…
05-16 13:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5b3033…
05-16 12:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa292fa…
05-16 12:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xbad04a…
05-16 12:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9c4aaa…
05-16 12:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x914491…
05-16 12:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xec6e24…
05-16 12:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xb38b8a…
05-16 12:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xefa745…
05-16 12:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5210fd…
05-16 12:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xb8bd71…
05-16 12:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9c4bcd…
05-16 11:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa2d403…
05-16 11:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xf41809…
05-16 11:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x64ec94…
05-16 11:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc08557…
05-16 11:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6e1ac5…
05-16 11:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x413b8e…
05-16 11:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x857dce…
05-16 10:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3b4495…
05-16 10:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xeec034…
05-15 22:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x94adbd…
05-15 22:24:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x751256…
05-15 16:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x5b0519…
05-15 16:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x672674…
05-15 16:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xd8ecda…
05-15 16:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x60ee04…
05-15 15:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0xd0abca…
05-15 15:52:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9968ea…
05-15 15:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xcdc4b3…
05-15 15:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b55ed…
05-15 15:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xee0462…
05-15 15:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x78ee7f…
05-15 15:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x21512c…
05-15 15:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa066a7…
05-15 15:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x6eec0c…
05-15 15:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x397bb2…
05-15 15:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd3bff0…
05-15 15:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd46830…