Massive-Vaccine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$1.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 09-18 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Politics

72% 50% +$76

Crypto

19% 53% -$28

Other

6% 30% -$12

Sports

3% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+14	$10	66¢	$9	-$1	06-15 07:25
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+8	$3	4¢	$0	-$3	05-22 22:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$105	88	88	+0	Yes	+$15	05-22 22:17
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	2	$104	68	68	+0	Yes	+$4	06-13 18:35
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$103	232	232	+0	No	+$23	06-14 17:24
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$60	167	167	+0	No	+$20	07-20 07:50
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$50	72	0	+72	Yes	+$22	02-27 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	6	$45	46	46	+0	Up	+$5	05-07 12:01
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$40	110	110	+0	No	$0	07-08 21:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$39	53	53	+0	No	-$1	05-12 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	6	$39	24	24	+0	Down	-$1	05-07 12:08
iran closes its airspace by june 15	2	$38	36	36	+0	Yes	+$8	06-07 19:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$37	28	28	+0	No	+$17	05-22 22:17
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	2	$30	28	28	+0	Yes	+$10	06-13 18:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	03-02 13:14
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$23	135	135	+0	open	—	05-11 14:54
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$22	15	15	+0	No	+$2	05-15 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	3	$21	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 14:07
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$21	53	31	+22	Yes	-$1	07-18 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	3	$21	14	14	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 12:11
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$20	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	03-08 09:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$20	11	11	+0	No	+$0	05-18 08:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$19	43	43	+0	Yes	-$9	06-14 13:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$16	26	26	+0	No	-$4	03-02 13:14
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$14	56	56	+0	No	-$6	03-02 06:59
israel closes its airspace by june 13	2	$13	43	43	+0	No	-$7	06-10 10:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$12	17	17	+0	No	-$8	05-29 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	05-11 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$11	14	14	+0	Down	+$1	05-27 19:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 16:05 UTC	2	$11	70	0	+70	Down	-$11	03-12 16:07
israel closes its airspace by august 15	2	$11	29	29	+0	No	-$9	08-10 18:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$11	16	16	+0	No	-$9	07-08 10:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 13:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf15232…
09-18 13:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb5e9a9…
09-18 13:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x347cdf…
09-18 13:42:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xbcb066…
09-18 13:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xda9bf8…
08-10 18:35:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x73dc21…
08-10 18:34:52	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x2953c7…
07-24 07:41:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	23	23¢	$5	0x96797d…
07-20 10:30:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x4e394b…
07-20 10:29:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x22c161…
07-20 07:50:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	167	24¢	$40	0x05dc22…
07-18 11:56:03	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x603ef0…
07-18 11:55:57	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xed2dec…
07-11 19:48:07	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xb82f12…
07-09 18:00:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x3232f2…
07-09 17:59:58	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x80f057…
07-08 21:49:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0xff22f6…
07-08 12:47:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x979c76…
07-08 10:51:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xf2a31c…
06-30 20:42:19	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x294872…
06-30 20:42:08	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x82a331…
06-15 12:40:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xf8deb2…
06-15 07:25:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x2798c6…
06-14 17:24:15	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xbbbc51…
06-14 17:24:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	138	9¢	$12	0x9dad4b…
06-14 13:21:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	43	12¢	$5	0x6641e3…
06-14 12:35:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	138	7¢	$10	0x8de6ed…
06-13 19:33:22	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	17¢	$5	0x00ec52…
06-13 18:35:34	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	28	73¢	$20	0xe7536e…
06-13 18:35:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	80¢	$54	0xd1b29a…
06-13 17:24:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x9abd10…
06-13 17:24:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x6f8d77…
06-13 17:23:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x0d71af…
06-12 19:50:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xcba8e5…
06-10 10:00:03	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	SELL	43	7¢	$3	0xc04326…
06-09 19:15:51	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x80b49a…
06-08 18:33:57	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xfb9f18…
06-08 08:23:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x6e00b1…
06-08 08:23:37	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xafa377…
06-07 19:25:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0xe170e2…
06-07 19:24:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xc35016…
06-07 19:06:01	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	36	64¢	$23	0x6ac3b0…
06-07 19:05:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	79	51¢	$40	0xeb8695…
06-07 18:51:40	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xf0927b…
06-07 18:51:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0x93c7a6…
05-29 15:08:16	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x75269f…
05-27 19:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x7721c0…
05-27 19:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa85766…
05-22 22:18:56	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xca0a86…
05-22 22:18:49	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x3a5990…
05-22 22:18:21	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x58a5b7…
05-22 22:17:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xe856a1…
05-22 22:17:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0xa296c4…
05-22 16:30:04	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xeac9b7…
05-22 11:33:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0xd33d09…
05-19 14:54:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x5968d4…
05-19 14:54:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x2092de…
05-18 08:05:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xe06ef0…
05-18 08:05:08	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	60¢	$27	0xe358b2…
05-16 19:13:11	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd2b468…
05-15 14:59:06	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x614429…
05-15 14:59:01	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x36ed24…
05-15 14:58:55	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x3b4009…
05-15 14:58:52	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc57491…
05-15 14:45:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xb58e6b…
05-14 09:55:17	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2caacd…
05-14 09:55:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5886d5…
05-13 07:16:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x2db179…
05-12 16:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xc07e39…
05-12 16:45:51	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0xce1e21…
05-12 16:45:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	37¢	$19	0x8693e6…
05-12 10:09:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xc0c5dc…
05-11 15:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x140cc7…
05-11 15:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xf03b89…
05-11 14:54:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	9¢	$13	0x0f95d5…
05-11 09:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xba6047…
05-11 09:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd2be4b…
05-11 09:02:12	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	7¢	$10	0xbf7bce…
05-09 18:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd5af8c…
05-09 18:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xd08852…
05-07 14:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xd46a04…
05-07 14:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x19934a…
05-07 14:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x52b5d2…
05-07 12:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x7da135…
05-07 12:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xca742e…
05-07 12:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x1f8e48…
05-07 12:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0x5932fc…
05-07 12:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x181db5…
05-07 12:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9c7d94…
05-07 12:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xa70313…
05-07 12:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd95a34…
05-07 12:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xa9c699…
05-07 12:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	58¢	$11	0xc5c2c8…
05-07 12:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x06d1db…
05-07 12:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xbe7176…
05-07 12:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	28	51¢	$14	0x136d02…
05-07 12:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xf801c3…
05-07 12:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x7da71f…
04-26 07:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x822d50…
04-26 07:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xab71c1…