Massive-Vaccine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$941

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 07-20 10:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

75% — —

Crypto

21% 50% $-8

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	2	$104	68	68	+0	open	—	06-13 18:35
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$103	232	232	+0	open	—	06-14 17:24
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$60	167	167	+0	open	—	07-20 07:50
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	02-27 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	6	$45	46	46	+0	Up	+$5	05-07 12:01
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$40	110	110	+0	open	—	07-08 21:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$39	53	53	+0	open	—	05-12 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	6	$39	24	24	+0	Down	$-1	05-07 12:08
iran closes its airspace by june 15	2	$38	36	36	+0	open	—	06-07 19:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$37	28	28	+0	open	—	05-22 22:17
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	2	$30	28	28	+0	open	—	06-13 18:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	03-02 13:14
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	05-15 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	3	$21	16	16	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 14:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	03-08 09:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-18 08:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$16	7	14	-7	Up	$-1	05-07 12:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$16	26	26	+0	open	—	03-02 13:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$14	28	43	-15	open	—	06-14 13:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$14	56	56	+0	open	—	03-02 06:59
israel closes its airspace by june 13	2	$13	43	43	+0	open	—	06-10 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	05-11 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$11	14	14	+0	open	—	05-27 19:41
btc updown 5m 1773331500	2	$11	70	0	+70	open	—	03-12 16:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$11	16	16	+0	open	—	07-08 10:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 15:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 14:48
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-01 06:40
israel closes its airspace by august 15	1	$10	29	0	+29	open	—	07-20 10:30
will israel strike lebanon on february 28 2026	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	02-27 14:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 10:30:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x4e394b…
07-20 10:29:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x22c161…
07-20 07:50:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	167	24¢	$40	0x05dc22…
07-09 18:00:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x3232f2…
07-08 21:49:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0xff22f6…
07-08 12:47:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x979c76…
07-08 10:51:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xf2a31c…
06-15 12:40:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xf8deb2…
06-14 17:24:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	138	9¢	$12	0x9dad4b…
06-14 13:21:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	43	12¢	$5	0x6641e3…
06-14 12:35:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	138	7¢	$10	0x8de6ed…
06-13 18:35:34	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	28	73¢	$20	0xe7536e…
06-13 18:35:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	80¢	$54	0xd1b29a…
06-13 17:24:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x6f8d77…
06-13 17:23:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x0d71af…
06-12 19:50:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xcba8e5…
06-10 10:00:03	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	SELL	43	7¢	$3	0xc04326…
06-09 19:15:51	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x80b49a…
06-08 18:33:57	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xfb9f18…
06-07 19:25:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0xe170e2…
06-07 19:24:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xc35016…
06-07 19:06:01	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	36	64¢	$23	0x6ac3b0…
06-07 19:05:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	79	51¢	$40	0xeb8695…
06-07 18:51:40	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xf0927b…
06-07 18:51:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0x93c7a6…
05-29 15:08:16	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x75269f…
05-27 19:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x7721c0…
05-27 19:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa85766…
05-22 22:18:49	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x3a5990…
05-22 22:17:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0xa296c4…
05-19 14:54:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x5968d4…
05-18 08:05:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xe06ef0…
05-15 14:45:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xb58e6b…
05-14 09:55:17	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2caacd…
05-14 09:55:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5886d5…
05-13 07:16:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x2db179…
05-12 16:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xc07e39…
05-12 16:45:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	37¢	$19	0x8693e6…
05-12 10:09:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xc0c5dc…
05-11 15:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x140cc7…
05-11 15:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xf03b89…
05-11 09:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xba6047…
05-11 09:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd2be4b…
05-09 18:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd5af8c…
05-09 18:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xd08852…
05-07 14:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xd46a04…
05-07 14:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x19934a…
05-07 14:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x52b5d2…
05-07 12:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x7da135…
05-07 12:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x1f8e48…
05-07 12:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0x5932fc…
05-07 12:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x181db5…
05-07 12:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9c7d94…
05-07 12:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xa70313…
05-07 12:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd95a34…
05-07 12:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xa9c699…
05-07 12:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	58¢	$11	0xc5c2c8…
05-07 12:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x06d1db…
05-07 12:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xbe7176…
05-07 12:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	28	51¢	$14	0x136d02…
05-07 12:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xf801c3…
05-07 12:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x7da71f…
04-26 07:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x822d50…
04-26 07:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xab71c1…
04-23 08:38:04	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb2e8a6…
04-07 13:54:01	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0x51a0de…
03-12 16:07:17	btc updown 5m 1773331500	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf0380e…
03-12 16:06:35	btc updown 5m 1773331500	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x2f6cb8…
03-12 16:05:35	btc updown 5m 1773331200	Down	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0xe7f637…
03-12 13:29:57	btc updown 5m 1773321900	Up	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xbf3269…
03-12 13:29:05	btc updown 5m 1773321900	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x461291…
03-12 13:28:33	btc updown 5m 1773321900	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xa6b99b…
03-12 13:26:35	btc updown 5m 1773321900	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x976006…
03-10 13:46:55	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x3e0b65…
03-08 09:16:37	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xd22313…
03-06 14:48:27	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x43e5ae…
03-04 10:30:13	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x4f5e04…
03-04 10:29:47	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x77e18e…
03-04 10:28:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x634bf8…
03-02 13:21:19	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xef07f3…
03-02 13:14:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x871edb…
03-02 13:14:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0xc5f5d4…
03-02 06:59:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	SELL	56	7¢	$4	0xb8c135…
03-01 08:46:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x68e013…
03-01 08:46:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x9908a1…
03-01 06:40:43	will israel strike lebanon on february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xa4df4e…
03-01 06:40:27	will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4d3771…
02-28 19:09:31	will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6c71fe…
02-28 19:08:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xdacc04…
02-27 18:17:09	btc updown 5m 1772216100	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x734e38…
02-27 18:16:31	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	54	3¢	$2	0xf0e4e1…
02-27 14:43:45	btc updown 5m 1772203200	Up	BUY	329	0¢	$1	0xe8b2ac…
02-27 14:37:17	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0xce0572…
02-27 14:34:37	btc updown 5m 1772202600	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x205c33…
02-27 14:33:57	will israel strike lebanon on february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xe6df7e…
02-27 14:33:49	will israel strike lebanon on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xed6347…
02-27 14:32:37	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x207311…