Lively-Transplantation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

148

Trades

189

lifetime

Volume

$3.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 04:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

38% 85% -$82

Other

36% 99% +$17

Crypto

18% 100% +$15

Tech

5% 100% +$0

Sports

3% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+2	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-27 16:02
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+0	-$2	99¢	$0	+$2	10-28 04:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	5	$291	150	150	+0	No	+$1	09-01 11:10
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$231	115	115	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 05:08
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$122	123	0	+123	No	+$1	06-26 05:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	06-02 12:21
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$119	120	0	+120	No	+$1	06-27 12:49
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$118	119	0	+119	Yes	+$1	09-17 20:54
LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	1	$118	118	0	+118	Yes	+$0	09-10 19:42
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$111	111	0	+111	No	+$0	08-06 13:15
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$109	112	0	+112	No	+$3	08-05 08:43
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$108	109	0	+109	No	+$1	08-10 23:04
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$108	108	0	+108	No	+$0	08-09 21:34
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$108	112	0	+112	No	+$4	08-13 23:51
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	1	$108	108	0	+108	No	+$0	08-18 23:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$107	108	0	+108	No	+$0	05-30 11:25
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	3	$106	53	53	+0	No	+$0	09-29 02:42
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	5	$104	56	55	+0	open	—	10-28 04:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$104	104	0	+104	No	+$0	08-22 03:34
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$99	54	54	+0	No	+$1	10-19 04:54
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	+$1	09-08 13:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	2	$96	48	48	+0	No	+$0	08-30 07:39
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	2	$93	46	46	+0	No	+$0	10-16 04:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$77	78	0	+78	No	+$1	09-29 22:34
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	09-05 11:31
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$66	67	0	+67	Yes	+$0	05-25 14:26
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$66	66	0	+66	Yes	+$0	05-21 09:28
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$59	67	0	+67	No	-$59	10-10 16:14
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$55	28	28	+0	Yes	+$0	09-29 21:37
grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	1	$43	55	0	+55	Yes	+$12	07-27 08:04
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-28 16:22
will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-29 12:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:03:31	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x2410f4…
10-28 04:01:46	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x8f5067…
10-28 04:00:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0x8bbed7…
10-28 04:00:55	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa67302…
10-28 03:15:28	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xdd1a29…
10-27 16:02:15	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0x68a26d…
10-23 18:49:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	56	92¢	$51	0x098fcc…
10-23 04:59:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	55	22¢	$12	0xd4a7a7…
10-20 21:04:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	55	21¢	$12	0xf61d9c…
10-19 04:54:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0x1289db…
10-18 03:46:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	54	91¢	$49	0x07a92c…
10-17 23:22:48	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe40a9e…
10-16 04:45:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0x405f85…
10-16 00:17:39	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x4d6eb9…
10-12 10:53:18	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x9f7b90…
10-10 16:14:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x1e2382…
10-10 16:14:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x2c9736…
10-07 17:06:08	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x8639f9…
10-05 05:08:47	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x058838…
10-05 00:25:16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xb278c1…
10-03 20:02:02	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x47abdb…
09-30 17:57:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x52d69b…
09-29 22:34:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0xf5c109…
09-29 21:37:35	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x43aeba…
09-29 12:23:50	will wti reach 150 in september 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4c9178…
09-29 12:21:36	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x995b83…
09-29 02:42:09	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb1b8a8…
09-29 02:39:18	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xa55e84…
09-28 20:35:39	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xee6cd6…
09-27 14:42:26	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0x0e95a0…
09-25 16:48:44	Will Solana reach $170 in September?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa21377…
09-24 05:46:21	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x14831c…
09-22 11:59:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9eb16b…
09-17 20:54:36	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0x749887…
09-10 19:42:10	LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x5388cd…
09-10 18:42:19	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0fca5d…
09-08 13:53:54	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x964fbe…
09-05 11:31:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x68e732…
09-01 11:10:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x586513…
09-01 08:11:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xa8db29…
08-30 10:34:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x67bd01…
08-30 07:39:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x76eaab…
08-28 12:38:25	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfe9690…
08-26 13:27:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x92d92f…
08-26 01:16:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb45fa7…
08-25 13:33:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xc71a17…
08-25 09:57:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xe31194…
08-24 08:12:58	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x92094a…
08-22 03:34:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xd14974…
08-22 02:15:45	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe268fc…
08-18 23:18:22	Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xf1d473…
08-17 14:02:31	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x56a4c9…
08-13 23:51:21	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	112	97¢	$108	0x864061…
08-13 09:30:58	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8a5f99…
08-10 23:04:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0x207154…
08-09 21:34:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x1c383b…
08-09 17:37:15	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x89c942…
08-06 13:15:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x94fd7b…
08-06 00:06:45	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x63ad98…
08-05 08:43:20	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	112	97¢	$109	0x8ae037…
07-31 20:25:44	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x58049e…
07-31 19:58:48	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x16c140…
07-30 12:29:54	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xfc1d55…
07-30 05:00:11	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb7d9d5…
07-28 10:10:40	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xcbc82a…
07-27 08:04:22	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0x450bb6…
07-27 07:08:00	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d4f21…
07-24 23:31:25	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3b50aa…
07-22 05:40:52	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x711810…
07-21 13:21:10	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x070dec…
07-21 12:55:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x006a5a…
07-21 11:35:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6b566f…
07-21 05:02:19	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe45115…
07-16 22:15:16	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6cbc21…
07-16 21:30:53	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2b2c29…
07-06 01:05:14	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xee5696…
06-29 13:36:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x7c0d60…
06-29 10:59:07	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbe7268…
06-29 08:05:11	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfe743b…
06-29 06:43:17	will gold gc hit high 4400 by end of june copy 20260609185905943	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd7e0d5…
06-29 06:10:11	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x898021…
06-28 20:20:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x8b8de3…
06-28 16:22:10	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x8ed823…
06-27 12:49:52	Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x1ae41f…
06-26 07:09:08	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4466d7…
06-26 05:48:34	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x618fcd…
06-08 19:42:21	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3bc7c…
06-02 12:21:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x42eecf…
05-30 11:25:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$107	0x7ddad8…
05-29 14:23:04	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in May?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x019c58…
05-25 14:26:50	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	67	100¢	$66	0xa036ad…
05-21 09:28:39	Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x2c695f…
05-19 20:43:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0xf16bdb…
05-15 05:57:25	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xa51d5f…
05-14 19:40:11	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0xc85ca0…
05-09 11:45:29	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x824816…
05-08 13:24:58	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xae6d5b…
05-08 08:04:58	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xda2c41…
05-08 07:34:02	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbf44e5…
05-07 20:41:48	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xec906f…