Bare-Convertible — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-06 07:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

56% 96% +$2

Crypto

34% 92% -$1

Politics

10% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+3	$2	99¢	$3	+$1	10-06 07:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the drama opening weekend box office be less than 7m	2	$164	82	82	+0	No	$0	04-10 07:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	1	$85	85	0	+85	Yes	+$0	05-09 10:49
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$85	85	0	+85	No	+$0	05-05 06:41
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	1	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	03-07 06:33
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	1	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	03-13 06:52
bitcoin above 70k on june 5 2026	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	06-05 03:31
bitcoin above 60k on march 28	1	$83	83	0	+83	Yes	+$0	03-27 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	05-25 03:53
bitcoin above 78k on march 24	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	03-23 07:25
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	05-17 03:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	05-28 03:24
bitcoin above 62k on february 15	1	$82	82	0	+82	Yes	+$0	02-15 06:41
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	02-11 06:56
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 160 179	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	04-17 07:43
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	02-03 09:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31?	1	$82	82	0	+82	Yes	+$0	05-30 10:46
bitcoin above 66k on april 10	1	$82	82	0	+82	Yes	+$0	04-10 07:54
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	06-10 08:47
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	03-17 07:44
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	01-31 06:53
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 220 239	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	01-27 03:41
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 80 99	1	$82	82	0	+82	No	+$0	01-22 03:52
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 180 199	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	01-08 10:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	03-31 09:52
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	01-17 09:28
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 320 339	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-23 06:56
bitcoin above 62k on april 13	1	$80	80	0	+80	Yes	+$0	04-12 07:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$77	77	0	+77	No	+$0	05-13 11:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	08-26 14:34
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	07-24 07:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 07:41:03	Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x029ed2…
10-06 07:37:15	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xd6e6a5…
09-21 10:21:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5c7c47…
09-21 10:21:30	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe55f82…
08-26 14:34:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x87277d…
07-24 07:27:45	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x603a30…
06-10 08:47:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x37d77f…
06-05 03:31:48	bitcoin above 70k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0xe0f47c…
05-30 10:46:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x397166…
05-28 03:24:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x6cbcb6…
05-25 03:53:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x48d548…
05-17 03:23:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x09eaf4…
05-13 11:20:14	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf17e49…
05-13 11:09:09	Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	850	0¢	$2	0xc930af…
05-13 11:06:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xa19430…
05-09 10:49:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xf8cdbb…
05-05 06:41:24	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x6ffdfe…
04-23 06:56:36	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 320 339	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x1753b2…
04-23 06:56:22	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 23	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x11ada2…
04-23 06:56:12	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x428cfa…
04-17 07:43:24	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 160 179	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x130ead…
04-12 07:25:11	bitcoin above 62k on april 13	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xaaa680…
04-12 07:25:03	Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2d948c…
04-12 07:24:53	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x15f240…
04-10 07:54:27	bitcoin above 66k on april 10	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0xfd8487…
04-10 07:54:01	will the drama opening weekend box office be less than 7m	No	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0xfc8acb…
04-06 08:04:45	will the drama opening weekend box office be less than 7m	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x1c48c3…
03-31 09:52:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x9aaa37…
03-31 09:52:07	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd665c3…
03-31 09:51:53	will germany strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x247bf2…
03-27 07:53:41	bitcoin above 60k on march 28	Yes	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x410697…
03-23 07:25:21	bitcoin above 78k on march 24	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x25547b…
03-17 07:44:15	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x0237cb…
03-17 07:44:05	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6390d7…
03-17 07:43:55	will zai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 189	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf5a543…
03-13 06:52:57	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x2e4cf5…
03-07 06:33:29	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x174fc8…
02-15 06:41:03	bitcoin above 62k on february 15	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x0e1a68…
02-11 06:56:59	will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0xcfe1b2…
02-03 09:36:14	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0xe381cf…
01-31 06:53:42	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x0845e1…
01-27 03:41:55	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 220 239	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x008d3c…
01-22 03:52:18	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 80 99	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x0c5bb7…
01-17 09:28:48	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xf4b681…
01-08 10:42:39	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 180 199	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x83dc9f…