Flippant-Hacienda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.14K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

61.3%

Resolved

469

Trades

1,692

lifetime

Volume

$20.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$110

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-27 13:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 237 days

Categories

Politics

68% 27% +$1,536

Other

31% 27% -$321

Sports

0% 0% -$27

Crypto

0% 0% -$36

Tech

0% 67% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	+287	$13	21¢	$59	+$46	08-31 23:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+900	$46	4¢	$36	-$10	10-25 13:29
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	+200	$16	5¢	$10	-$6	08-29 13:00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$30	2¢	$4	-$26	10-23 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	12	$1.2K	1,530	728	+802	Yes	-$332	03-19 15:20
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	36	$737	4,609	4,709	-100	Yes	-$328	04-06 04:17
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	10	$722	800	0	+800	Yes	+$78	01-21 14:25
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	1	$480	492	0	+492	Yes	+$12	10-21 00:46
will iran strike israel on march 3	8	$449	800	600	+200	Yes	+$231	03-04 00:31
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	12	$415	467	467	+0	Yes	+$324	03-26 06:19
will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	18	$377	556	556	+0	Yes	+$100	02-28 08:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	7	$327	300	300	+0	No	+$255	05-25 23:31
iran successfully targets shipping on july 27	4	$318	200	200	+0	No	+$46	07-27 17:52
will iran strike israel on march 10	11	$265	1,600	1,300	+300	Yes	+$24	03-13 05:55
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$260	0	1,000	-1,000	Yes	+$260	09-20 15:44
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 28?	2	$257	141	141	+0	open	—	10-26 08:32
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$204	2,033	200	+1,833	No	+$70	02-15 04:04
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	2	$195	257	257	+0	Yes	+$165	02-28 10:54
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	5	$182	135	135	+0	Yes	+$45	02-14 08:50
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	4	$180	190	100	+90	Yes	+$80	02-10 04:46
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	2	$175	100	100	+0	open	—	10-26 21:04
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	4	$172	300	300	+0	No	+$4	02-04 14:14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$168	200	200	+0	Yes	+$56	03-04 18:06
will israel strike lebanon on february 20 2026	7	$167	130	130	+0	Yes	+$92	02-20 15:18
iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 2026 12	4	$156	356	356	+0	Yes	+$124	09-05 02:07
will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 11 2026 20260724221849642	6	$156	300	300	+0	No	+$144	08-12 13:12
lol dk t1 2026 08 06	2	$154	100	100	+0	T1	+$46	08-06 13:26
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	7	$154	900	200	+700	No	+$85	06-24 10:27
lol hle1 t1 2026 01 16	2	$150	100	100	+0	T1	+$50	01-16 12:29
lol hle1 gen 2026 08 05	3	$148	100	100	+0	Gen.G	+$52	08-05 14:03
will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	7	$140	250	250	+0	No	+$9	03-11 01:01
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	14	$136	791	791	+0	No	+$34	04-13 08:49
north korea missile launch by february 28 534	6	$135	310	310	+0	No	+$113	02-27 13:44
iran successfully targets shipping on august 6 2026 20260729163314526	4	$134	100	100	+0	No	+$64	08-08 01:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:00:35	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xe94140…
10-27 11:08:03	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 30?	No	BUY	27	86¢	$23	0x2893e6…
10-27 03:50:08	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	No	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x6664f4…
10-26 23:08:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xef5e16…
10-26 21:04:18	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x7d6479…
10-26 19:15:30	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xb74336…
10-26 18:05:51	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x36ac89…
10-26 17:58:12	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x7114e8…
10-26 15:34:29	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0x379806…
10-26 15:20:29	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x3c3b2b…
10-26 15:18:20	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0xbfff66…
10-26 15:13:57	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0x3a5acd…
10-26 15:13:44	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xbaca1e…
10-26 15:13:38	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x289dda…
10-26 15:12:38	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x866546…
10-26 15:08:18	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xbe6bb0…
10-26 15:07:47	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x907149…
10-26 14:20:03	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	124	72¢	$89	0x9c034d…
10-26 08:32:44	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 28?	No	SELL	141	99¢	$139	0x534268…
10-26 00:00:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0xe8c9ad…
10-25 23:50:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xa3ed30…
10-25 16:01:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf984d4…
10-25 13:29:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x87f3b1…
10-25 12:51:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa59185…
10-25 11:32:11	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xbea35b…
10-25 10:23:30	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	No	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x164188…
10-25 09:39:44	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x9c4f80…
10-25 06:55:20	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on october 28 2026	No	BUY	141	83¢	$117	0x750cee…
10-24 16:06:42	Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	9¢	$2	0xab879f…
10-24 13:09:50	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x0d627f…
10-24 11:52:42	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0x2b861a…
10-24 11:10:56	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	38	2¢	$1	0xc897e7…
10-24 10:48:26	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?	No	BUY	63	5¢	$3	0x4d3ac9…
10-24 10:47:29	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xe0551d…
10-24 10:46:21	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xc2e034…
10-24 10:46:09	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xbfd57b…
10-24 10:28:12	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xdb6f2e…
10-24 10:25:56	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc2075a…
10-24 08:00:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x2dcc7f…
10-24 05:30:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x8b7e63…
10-24 02:37:56	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x8462e9…
10-24 02:24:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	299	6¢	$16	0x941d3a…
10-23 11:57:51	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	15¢	$28	0xc82def…
10-23 11:56:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	No	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0x2ee7c1…
10-23 11:32:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x3c8011…
10-23 09:51:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xc1e54e…
10-23 09:39:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	85	2¢	$1	0x767229…
10-23 09:36:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	No	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x7208f8…
10-23 07:31:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe8ee03…
10-23 05:34:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x151fb3…
10-22 19:37:56	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	6¢	$4	0x806981…
10-22 16:28:47	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0xb2aa24…
10-22 15:12:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x100130…
10-22 13:07:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xb51811…
10-22 11:12:17	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xed3da1…
10-22 08:13:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xd599e3…
10-22 06:28:40	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x4d321f…
10-22 01:53:36	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xd18325…
10-21 12:00:41	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xbae685…
10-21 10:59:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x0da8ea…
10-21 10:58:44	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?	No	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x34860a…
10-21 10:44:42	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5412dd…
10-21 09:01:24	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	SELL	292	7¢	$22	0xf444dd…
10-21 02:20:08	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x960365…
10-21 00:46:26	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	492	98¢	$480	0x4277c2…
10-21 00:42:36	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?	No	BUY	60	14¢	$8	0x6e5906…
10-20 21:19:47	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xe695f7…
10-20 17:49:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0x1906d4…
10-20 17:14:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	No	SELL	48	3¢	$1	0x155ac6…
10-20 16:39:59	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?	No	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x5a1ddc…
10-20 14:14:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	83	7¢	$6	0x4ec81a…
10-20 14:12:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x464447…
10-20 14:12:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x38e68a…
10-20 12:09:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	No	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x3a7246…
10-20 10:27:51	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	No	SELL	135	3¢	$4	0x6c8cbf…
10-19 23:55:23	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$7	0xe80761…
10-19 16:13:27	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xbe0c03…
10-19 15:47:24	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	No	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x59fe45…
10-19 10:11:08	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x52b301…
10-19 10:10:17	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6b1351…
10-19 10:08:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4dadf7…
10-19 09:26:30	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x2019a7…
10-19 06:44:03	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xbd10e6…
10-19 04:00:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xd2614c…
10-19 02:30:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0x011fa9…
10-18 23:55:20	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?	No	SELL	9	28¢	$3	0x3ae751…
10-18 16:39:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 18, 2026?	No	BUY	42	13¢	$5	0x380d91…
10-18 13:02:05	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 18?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xd46211…
10-18 00:43:15	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?	No	SELL	41	40¢	$16	0xc1b930…
10-17 16:20:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe86c93…
10-17 15:09:50	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	No	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0xbf1da4…
10-17 15:09:50	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x6a769b…
10-17 14:53:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	No	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0x5ea21d…
10-17 04:00:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0xd2fda6…
10-16 07:28:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 16?	No	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x4e0138…
10-16 07:28:40	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 16?	No	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x4c3bc0…
10-16 07:22:54	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	140	4¢	$6	0x6cce4d…
10-16 07:20:06	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	160	4¢	$6	0x8d1166…
10-16 04:53:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$4	0x0f3c82…
10-16 03:37:18	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7bc04a…