Alert-Weather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

21.9%

Resolved

Trades

653

lifetime

Volume

$93.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$143

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-07 22:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

67% — —

Sports

18% 25% $-75

Other

11% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 197 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	133	$22.0K	38,321	9,004	+29,316	open	—	06-05 08:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	25	$19.3K	29,197	3,000	+26,197	open	—	05-30 12:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	41	$10.9K	21,013	430	+20,582	open	—	05-26 12:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	16	$5.6K	11,200	0	+11,200	open	—	05-22 05:26
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	10	$3.0K	7,000	1,000	+6,000	open	—	05-23 05:10
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	154	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-07 22:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$2.1K	3,000	3,100	-100	open	—	06-07 07:46
Lakers vs. Rockets	22	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	-0	open	—	04-25 01:42
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	6	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-08 10:07
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	9	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-04 02:30
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	10	$1.1K	1,439	0	+1,439	open	—	05-18 04:14
Knicks vs. 76ers	3	$1.0K	2,016	16	+2,000	Knicks	$-10	05-10 04:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	3	$1.0K	1,191	0	+1,191	open	—	05-14 02:13
nba cle den 2026 02 09	1	$1.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-09 03:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	39	$999	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-07 07:59
nba cle mem 2026 04 06	8	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-07 02:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	19	$963	1,942	59	+1,883	open	—	06-05 22:38
nba hou cha 2026 02 19	1	$960	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	02-19 00:23
nba ind was 2026 02 19	3	$885	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	02-19 00:45
Thunder vs. Spurs	2	$834	1,668	0	+1,668	open	—	05-21 10:37
Knicks vs. 76ers	2	$760	1,500	0	+1,500	Knicks	$-260	05-08 08:56
nba uta mia 2026 02 09	1	$750	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-09 03:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	8	$743	459	404	+55	open	—	05-28 11:52
wti up or down on june 5 2026	7	$705	1,200	200	+1,000	open	—	06-05 06:28
nba phi lal 2026 02 05	1	$580	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-06 01:57
nba atl phi 2026 02 19	1	$550	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-19 00:55
nba gsw phx 2026 02 05	1	$525	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	02-06 01:52
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$505	855	0	+855	Spurs	+$200	05-08 11:07
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	2	$500	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-07 17:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$492	600	0	+600	open	—	05-15 02:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 22:58:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x3340e9…
06-07 17:27:34	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$14	0x42f840…
06-07 15:49:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	80	93¢	$75	0x4dfae5…
06-07 15:49:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0xe1a681…
06-07 15:49:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xd4dbe1…
06-07 15:48:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xdeef34…
06-07 15:48:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x1e8506…
06-07 15:48:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x46056c…
06-07 15:47:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x1edbfe…
06-07 15:47:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xea7d5d…
06-07 15:46:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x046874…
06-07 15:46:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x27221b…
06-07 15:45:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xf15011…
06-07 15:45:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x65b823…
06-07 15:44:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xd56189…
06-07 15:44:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xee2765…
06-07 15:44:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x9f8e3b…
06-07 15:43:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xa7032e…
06-07 15:43:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x934854…
06-07 15:42:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xc6f05b…
06-07 15:41:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x908854…
06-07 15:41:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x51615f…
06-07 15:41:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x1781ad…
06-07 15:40:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x63fdb6…
06-07 15:40:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x3b730a…
06-07 15:39:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xc61e36…
06-07 15:38:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x71d0e6…
06-07 15:38:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xece5b9…
06-07 15:37:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xbba638…
06-07 15:36:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xab0d3f…
06-07 15:35:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x04b8e7…
06-07 15:35:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x45a369…
06-07 15:35:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xfdee1e…
06-07 15:35:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7aa670…
06-07 15:34:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x267d07…
06-07 15:34:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x238adf…
06-07 15:34:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x3cfc43…
06-07 15:33:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x90d7f2…
06-07 15:33:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0xcf5769…
06-07 15:32:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x123536…
06-07 15:31:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xaf3382…
06-07 15:31:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x57056c…
06-07 15:31:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x92a7d9…
06-07 15:30:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x4d5e32…
06-07 15:30:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x1c0439…
06-07 15:29:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xd55783…
06-07 15:29:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x5651c1…
06-07 15:28:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xb7faa5…
06-07 15:28:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x43be59…
06-07 15:28:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xf4dac1…
06-07 15:27:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xbe4a51…
06-07 15:27:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7cdadb…
06-07 15:26:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xa7f6c2…
06-07 15:26:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x19deb5…
06-07 15:25:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x5605d6…
06-07 15:25:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xfdce20…
06-07 15:24:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xecfe8e…
06-07 15:24:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x8fc643…
06-07 15:24:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xabd094…
06-07 15:23:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6f1509…
06-07 15:23:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x81fe66…
06-07 15:22:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	149	93¢	$139	0x0254ca…
06-07 15:21:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x1a55c3…
06-07 15:21:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xa1fde1…
06-07 15:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x98bf02…
06-07 15:20:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xd2e06b…
06-07 15:20:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xecb550…
06-07 15:19:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x0064a6…
06-07 15:17:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xb81f32…
06-07 15:15:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7e8fbd…
06-07 15:14:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x038a59…
06-07 15:13:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	76	93¢	$71	0xe949f8…
06-07 15:12:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x61642a…
06-07 15:12:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x673fc9…
06-07 15:12:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xfe406a…
06-07 15:12:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xa9b0db…
06-07 15:11:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x2928ec…
06-07 15:11:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xfda65c…
06-07 15:08:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x361565…
06-07 15:05:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	71	93¢	$66	0x2c476a…
06-07 15:00:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	95	93¢	$89	0xa8f668…
06-07 12:32:31	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$486	0xa00933…
06-07 07:59:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	414	97¢	$402	0xe3b815…
06-07 07:56:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc1c56b…
06-07 07:52:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5363b1…
06-07 07:48:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x56abaf…
06-07 07:46:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	2,000	7¢	$140	0xed3caa…
06-07 07:40:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x9555f2…
06-07 07:25:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x21ae83…
06-07 07:17:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xcce0a1…
06-07 07:10:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0xa47ea3…
06-07 06:38:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x84cc50…
06-07 06:35:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x4498f9…
06-07 06:33:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x1ae70a…
06-07 06:33:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8db952…
06-07 06:30:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$24	0x5cacd7…
06-07 06:00:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x544bfc…
06-07 05:56:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x92631a…
06-07 05:49:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x694f5b…
06-07 05:49:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x6af795…