Normal-Fate — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$522

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

136

136 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$11.5K

$11.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 05-14 01:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 79% +$132

Other

38% 44% +$677

Sports

2% 0% $-287

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13?	2	$782	410	487	-77	Yes	+$114	05-13 21:23
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?	2	$610	313	313	+0	Yes	+$10	05-12 21:30
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	1	$536	0	800	-800	Luciano Darderi	+$536	05-13 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	3	$410	422	0	+422	Up	$-107	05-13 23:54
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	4	$389	456	146	+310	Yes	$-23	05-14 01:29
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin	1	$306	312	0	+312	Jannik Sinner	+$6	05-11 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	1	$300	312	0	+312	Up	+$12	05-14 00:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	3	$300	312	0	+312	Up	+$12	05-13 21:54
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?	1	$298	0	298	-298	Yes	$-0	05-13 20:58
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	1	$287	435	0	+435	Cavaliers	$-287	05-14 01:53
Will CA Rosario Central vs. Racing Club end in a draw?	2	$252	154	154	+0	Yes	+$52	05-13 23:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	1	$243	0	248	-248	Up	$-5	05-14 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	2	$228	203	166	+37	Down	+$31	05-14 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	3	$225	319	0	+319	Up	$-73	05-13 04:24
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	1	$218	0	218	-218	Yes	$-0	05-12 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	1	$200	201	0	+201	Down	+$1	05-11 23:04
Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-05-12?	1	$200	211	0	+211	Yes	+$11	05-12 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	2	$200	243	0	+243	Up	+$43	05-13 04:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	2	$200	231	0	+231	Up	+$31	05-13 05:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$200	230	0	+230	Down	+$30	05-13 05:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	2	$200	221	0	+221	Up	+$21	05-11 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$200	215	0	+215	Down	+$15	05-13 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	5	$178	465	308	+156	Down	$-15	05-13 22:18
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	1	$150	0	150	-150	Yes	$-0	05-11 21:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	3	$150	172	0	+172	Down	+$22	05-13 05:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$143	0	146	-146	Up	$-3	05-14 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	3	$140	163	0	+163	Down	+$23	05-12 01:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	2	$140	147	0	+147	Down	+$7	05-12 00:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$140	124	116	+8	Down	$-60	05-14 00:19
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	1	$134	0	137	-137	open	—	05-13 20:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 01:53:02	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	435	66¢	$287	0x22c12b…
05-14 01:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	136	74¢	$100	0xcbf11d…
05-14 01:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xfb268b…
05-14 01:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	76	21¢	$16	0x4bb1da…
05-14 01:29:07	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	BUY	310	84¢	$261	0xef3d92…
05-14 01:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x29dc05…
05-14 01:11:06	Will FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	383	26¢	$100	0xec44a2…
05-14 01:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf12483…
05-14 01:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x7ab7c3…
05-14 01:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	146	98¢	$143	0xb3d6bc…
05-14 00:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	248	98¢	$243	0x2e6c87…
05-14 00:56:43	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0xaa80d6…
05-14 00:55:10	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	SELL	139	19¢	$26	0x8d3493…
05-14 00:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xb4cdb5…
05-14 00:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	166	17¢	$28	0x31f2c8…
05-14 00:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	157	30¢	$48	0x9d6cb9…
05-14 00:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0xeb148a…
05-14 00:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xcb1763…
05-14 00:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0xdac718…
05-14 00:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	116	34¢	$40	0xf67e8c…
05-14 00:06:30	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	BUY	146	69¢	$100	0xd21f31…
05-13 23:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0xfbe77f…
05-13 23:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xedcea4…
05-13 23:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xf82537…
05-13 23:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x5b01af…
05-13 23:43:52	Will CA Rosario Central vs. Racing Club end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	154	99¢	$152	0x5b7e71…
05-13 23:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0xd38734…
05-13 23:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7be609…
05-13 23:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x820b38…
05-13 23:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x2df52b…
05-13 23:25:57	Will CA Rosario Central vs. Racing Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x13bbfe…
05-13 23:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x5b2cae…
05-13 23:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x46e13d…
05-13 22:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x972f1c…
05-13 22:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0xc55e85…
05-13 22:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x2867ac…
05-13 22:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x9d54e8…
05-13 22:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	125	96¢	$120	0xe246fe…
05-13 22:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	308	1¢	$3	0xbedf2f…
05-13 22:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x26c352…
05-13 22:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xc5baa4…
05-13 22:16:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xa07c0f…
05-13 22:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	308	8¢	$25	0x957729…
05-13 21:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xfee3bf…
05-13 21:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x4d4a9a…
05-13 21:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xbbf84a…
05-13 21:53:47	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	Rafael Jodar	SELL	800	67¢	$536	0xe1a964…
05-13 21:23:39	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	SELL	487	100¢	$487	0xf0df38…
05-13 21:08:59	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	BUY	410	72¢	$295	0x946383…
05-13 20:58:54	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	SELL	298	100¢	$298	0x8c9d6c…
05-13 20:23:13	Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	SELL	55	96¢	$52	0x90b151…
05-13 20:23:08	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	SELL	137	98¢	$134	0x549c59…
05-13 20:20:25	Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	245	28¢	$69	0xccbecb…
05-13 20:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0dc268…
05-13 20:18:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x745b1b…
05-13 20:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd0e768…
05-13 20:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xcc01e3…
05-13 20:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x6f2cce…
05-13 19:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x096714…
05-13 19:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4772b3…
05-13 19:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x49e921…
05-13 19:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xc18d91…
05-13 19:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	125	28¢	$34	0x242c67…
05-13 17:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xd24a9d…
05-13 16:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xdae85d…
05-13 16:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xa177a4…
05-13 16:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x4d23c1…
05-13 13:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xfc975f…
05-13 13:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xd548b5…
05-13 13:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x1e00ba…
05-13 13:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x916f0c…
05-13 12:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xa0fc4d…
05-13 11:13:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x47a9bf…
05-13 10:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x80428b…
05-13 10:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x470ed9…
05-13 05:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xd2aa7e…
05-13 05:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xdc93b5…
05-13 05:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xa5c473…
05-13 05:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x5501f0…
05-13 05:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x335c84…
05-13 05:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xb6118e…
05-13 05:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x168907…
05-13 05:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xf7446b…
05-13 04:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x190854…
05-13 04:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xb4bc3d…
05-13 04:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x75efe4…
05-13 04:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xa3ef4a…
05-13 04:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0xc6ad7b…
05-13 04:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x1aac34…
05-13 04:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x887a16…
05-13 04:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xa01440…
05-12 21:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x89df6c…
05-12 21:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x2e77bf…
05-12 21:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x7212ec…
05-12 21:30:56	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?	Yes	SELL	313	99¢	$310	0xac9fd1…
05-12 21:27:43	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?	Yes	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0x4a594a…
05-12 20:31:45	Will Dundee United FC vs. Livingston FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x57bd90…
05-12 20:30:49	Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-05-12?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x25ca87…
05-12 20:17:43	Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	218	100¢	$218	0x4dcdb0…
05-12 19:07:14	Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12?	Yes	BUY	52	66¢	$34	0xf67f5a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	77	$12.1K	451	05-14 01:50
Equal-Renaissance 0x1c4e…4150	70	$2.48K	639	05-14 01:48
Lumbering-Kayak 0xf6ab…3579	68	$1.75K	214	05-14 01:46
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	67	$5.45K	501	05-14 01:48
Impressive-Buck 0xbd05…0a55	65	$1.96K	244	05-14 01:46
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	64	$20.8K	264	05-14 01:48
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	64	$4.87K	227	05-14 01:46
Aged-Visit 0x2ea2…d3d7	64	$2.34K	222	05-14 01:46