Defenseless-Bridge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$609

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

85.4%

Resolved

254

Trades

1,023

lifetime

Volume

$21.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$195

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 22:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Other

43% 56% -$79

Politics

33% 71% -$283

Crypto

18% 76% -$348

Sports

5% 90% +$99

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-201	-$175	97¢	$-195	-$20	05-16 14:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$1.6K	3,447	3,838	-391	Yes	+$124	10-25 22:25
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	31	$1.5K	766	766	-0	Yes	+$1	02-23 03:40
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	20	$1.4K	1,600	0	+1,600	Yes	+$158	02-22 18:13
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	90	$1.0K	1,079	1,012	+67	Yes	+$8	02-24 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	29	$600	1,250	0	+1,250	Up	+$25	10-07 05:05
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	12	$565	300	300	+0	No	+$8	02-15 07:29
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	7	$500	578	0	+578	Yes	+$78	10-04 21:22
Will Aline Campos win Big Brother Brasil 26?	15	$426	214	214	+0	No	+$0	02-04 08:43
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$402	400	400	+0	Yes	+$10	01-29 17:14
will israel strike gaza on march 7 2026	6	$385	210	210	+0	Yes	+$15	03-07 18:57
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	9	$350	568	0	+568	Yes	-$350	02-12 07:20
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$342	200	200	+0	Yes	+$37	01-18 23:12
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$341	210	210	+0	No	+$16	02-14 04:16
Will Milena Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26?	15	$338	184	184	+0	No	+$4	02-25 21:42
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	6	$334	205	205	+0	Yes	+$2	02-12 04:43
us strikes iraq by march 7	11	$332	613	613	+0	Yes	-$298	03-08 20:44
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$315	860	400	+460	Yes	-$203	02-28 06:52
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$294	350	100	+250	Yes	+$88	06-24 21:59
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	13	$265	1,350	1,150	+200	No	-$30	02-03 14:59
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	5	$254	205	205	+0	Yes	+$20	06-08 11:13
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	9	$247	130	130	+0	Yes	+$9	03-03 19:29
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	29	$230	200	200	+0	Yes	+$38	02-23 11:26
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	12	$228	140	140	+0	Yes	+$5	03-29 00:20
nba phx phi 2026 01 20	7	$216	200	200	+0	Suns	+$16	01-21 01:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:15 UTC	1	$200	204	0	+204	Down	+$4	10-09 12:25
Will Alberto Pimentel win Big Brother Brasil 26?	3	$187	100	100	+0	No	+$5	02-23 06:25
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 42 43f	5	$186	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	03-01 21:07
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 27 2026 28c	2	$184	187	0	+187	No	+$2	03-27 15:30
bitcoin up or down january 18 7pm et	5	$177	100	100	+0	Down	+$5	01-19 00:20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$175	0	201	-201	open	—	05-16 14:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:25:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0x78980e…
10-25 22:07:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	487	50¢	$243	0x13b74d…
10-25 21:58:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	56	40¢	$22	0xe9d809…
10-25 21:58:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	94	40¢	$38	0x7632b4…
10-25 21:58:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	250	40¢	$100	0x714472…
10-19 13:52:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0x1bce5a…
10-19 13:41:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	292	24¢	$70	0xf66a25…
10-19 13:40:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0x79a287…
10-19 13:40:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,156	24¢	$518	0xd6cdfd…
10-15 00:57:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,406	16¢	$545	0xca7300…
10-09 17:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x33ddd1…
10-09 17:19:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x7bd765…
10-09 17:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xfd70e4…
10-09 12:54:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	57	86¢	$49	0x113d2a…
10-09 12:25:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x9135cf…
10-07 05:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	37	29¢	$11	0x61cfc1…
10-07 05:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xed8e6f…
10-07 05:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xc6386c…
10-07 05:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x33b377…
10-07 05:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x0854af…
10-07 05:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xc758ad…
10-07 05:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	112	87¢	$98	0xc59fb9…
10-07 05:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x35b08e…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0xf5feb4…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	106	48¢	$51	0xefa04d…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x61fd0c…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	32	48¢	$15	0x57b07c…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x3b1996…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	256	48¢	$123	0x330d45…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	120	48¢	$58	0x221ca1…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x18741c…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x169b63…
10-07 05:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x0f1ea3…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0xfba650…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xee6d85…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	28	48¢	$13	0xe6ea45…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x9f50e1…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9a56a9…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0x931934…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x885639…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x7d5b45…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0x665598…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	82	48¢	$39	0x575585…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	75	48¢	$36	0x55746e…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4c5c1f…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0x313eb7…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1843d0…
10-07 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x0a8ec1…
10-07 05:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9de2f5…
10-07 05:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0a1250…
10-07 05:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0xe7273a…
10-04 21:22:31	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	BUY	339	89¢	$300	0xb65966…
10-04 21:09:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	432	17¢	$73	0x40a6a7…
09-30 23:09:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xcb178c…
09-30 23:09:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	95	80¢	$76	0x4ac5be…
09-30 22:38:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xfc2e73…
09-30 22:24:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0x59683a…
09-30 21:55:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x8f8113…
09-30 09:22:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x643b90…
09-30 09:22:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x191e2a…
09-30 09:22:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x637159…
09-30 08:58:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x3a495b…
09-30 08:41:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0x706063…
09-30 08:22:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xddb964…
09-30 08:13:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x17917f…
09-30 07:55:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x256765…
09-30 07:40:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xabd512…
09-30 06:25:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	115	86¢	$99	0x417ef8…
09-26 02:07:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0x143091…
09-26 01:53:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x67a252…
09-26 01:39:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xea3e79…
09-26 01:27:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0xe1cdac…
09-21 22:08:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x03b7a5…
09-21 21:22:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x65b439…
09-21 19:38:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfd0e4c…
09-21 19:35:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x62ba81…
09-21 19:35:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8a059f…
09-21 19:33:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x2e9557…
09-21 19:13:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:00 UTC	Down	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0x354180…
09-21 19:12:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9b9e4a…
09-21 15:06:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x2c64df…
09-21 14:36:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xa2cb34…
09-21 14:36:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xf402f3…
09-21 14:34:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x35dd87…
09-21 13:36:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xe2b33c…
09-21 13:11:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x0e3878…
09-21 13:05:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x07bc57…
09-21 13:02:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	30¢	$5	0xf3c3e7…
09-21 12:39:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x032f97…
09-21 12:38:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x152527…
09-21 12:37:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x51c1cd…
09-21 12:33:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0xb50c55…
09-20 09:24:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2db080…
09-20 07:27:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0xf7c347…
09-20 07:26:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x4501ca…
09-20 05:42:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd7dccc…
09-19 16:44:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 16:30 UTC	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x0e3172…
09-19 16:42:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xf1b6e7…
09-18 14:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xb66431…
09-18 01:42:34	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	BUY	32	83¢	$27	0x92bfcc…