Rural-Evil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$23.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-07 20:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

78% 0% $-120

Other

19% 100% +$76

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+61	$27	4¢	$3	$-24	06-12 16:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	21	$5.2K	96,004	3,721	+92,283	open	—	04-05 22:43
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$2.3K	1,461	1,461	+0	open	—	04-21 20:10
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$2.1K	33,285	0	+33,285	open	—	01-18 17:44
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	3	$1.8K	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	07-07 02:04
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$1.1K	1,610	1,610	+0	open	—	04-16 18:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$973	1,056	252	+804	open	—	04-30 19:04
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$900	456	456	+0	open	—	04-14 05:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$800	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	04-17 12:57
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	2	$600	2,753	0	+2,753	open	—	04-01 23:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	8	$564	14,830	120	+14,710	open	—	04-20 07:51
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	5	$450	272	272	+0	open	—	04-14 20:20
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	4	$410	287	287	+0	open	—	04-15 12:11
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$305	211	211	+0	open	—	05-12 16:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$300	242	242	+0	open	—	05-12 16:51
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$294	300	300	+0	open	—	06-06 09:52
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$290	55,006	55,006	+0	open	—	04-30 00:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$241	152	152	+0	No	+$41	04-07 22:38
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	2	$235	154	154	+0	Yes	+$35	04-14 05:31
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$228	141	141	+0	open	—	05-02 13:33
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$214	469	503	-34	open	—	06-05 19:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$209	155	155	+0	open	—	05-14 21:19
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 5 2026	2	$205	105	105	+0	open	—	06-05 19:26
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$200	532	0	+532	open	—	01-15 15:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$197	123	123	+0	open	—	04-16 07:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$196	400	400	+0	open	—	05-28 17:08
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	2	$185	128	128	+0	open	—	05-03 22:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$173	200	139	+61	open	—	06-12 16:33
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$168	350	350	+0	open	—	07-07 16:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	1	$167	0	242	-242	open	—	05-31 08:45
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	2	$158	154	154	+0	open	—	05-14 21:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 20:19:22	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0x327b74…
07-07 18:26:22	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xc38f98…
07-07 17:49:01	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	29	22¢	$6	0x1a8ebf…
07-07 17:34:43	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0xeed745…
07-07 16:19:04	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	350	23¢	$80	0x883356…
07-07 02:04:25	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	SELL	1,050	100¢	$1,049	0x9fdcfb…
07-07 00:54:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	85	27¢	$23	0x22d8c4…
07-07 00:52:10	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	751	76¢	$571	0xa63f4c…
07-07 00:52:08	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	299	76¢	$227	0xba7b54…
07-06 04:01:38	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	340	6¢	$20	0xe0af3f…
07-03 15:08:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	85	44¢	$37	0x922df6…
07-01 23:25:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xd082e5…
07-01 23:19:08	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	80	67¢	$54	0xa9da74…
06-29 21:28:49	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0x26e978…
06-29 21:19:05	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x3e3a70…
06-29 20:37:53	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	29	63¢	$18	0xbdd2e2…
06-24 08:31:44	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	Yes	BUY	503	1¢	$3	0x9dbba6…
06-24 08:26:05	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	350	25¢	$88	0x9c3251…
06-23 15:16:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	90	55¢	$50	0x9c4eca…
06-22 18:26:14	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	224	15¢	$34	0xa6dfae…
06-22 18:15:35	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	62	15¢	$9	0x9e1272…
06-22 18:08:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	150	64¢	$96	0x303a7f…
06-22 18:07:26	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	54	15¢	$8	0x577482…
06-22 18:06:13	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xd2b90c…
06-18 17:41:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	150	31¢	$46	0x4e4955…
06-17 14:14:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x0bd47e…
06-12 16:33:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	139	53¢	$73	0xb07671…
06-07 20:24:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	259	22¢	$57	0x94b415…
06-06 13:52:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	259	27¢	$70	0x73b0cc…
06-06 09:52:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	300	59¢	$177	0x555872…
06-05 19:46:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	503	13¢	$65	0x947c2a…
06-05 19:26:01	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x11e10b…
06-03 23:03:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x85e75d…
06-03 23:00:39	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa62a8b…
06-01 23:46:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	133	39¢	$52	0x0060f9…
06-01 20:36:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	167	39¢	$65	0x62669e…
05-31 19:08:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x0b3f2a…
05-31 08:45:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	242	69¢	$167	0xc13542…
05-29 01:00:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	166	29¢	$48	0x605fbe…
05-28 17:08:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x157465…
05-28 17:08:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	24¢	$96	0xd8cdfd…
05-28 17:08:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x10cbb6…
05-14 21:19:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	154	38¢	$58	0x32e94f…
05-14 21:19:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	155	71¢	$110	0xe879ba…
05-13 15:32:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x4d9c8c…
05-13 12:28:43	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?	No	SELL	102	55¢	$56	0xe7054c…
05-12 16:51:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	242	62¢	$150	0xc87c39…
05-12 16:51:17	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	211	73¢	$155	0x329f2a…
05-12 16:50:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	155	64¢	$99	0x7dc597…
05-11 18:33:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	242	62¢	$150	0x9c7638…
05-11 17:19:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x039d94…
05-08 12:25:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	3,940	3¢	$99	0x868178…
05-07 21:27:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	135	16¢	$21	0x88743d…
05-03 22:47:22	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	67¢	$85	0x8a3e35…
05-03 22:46:24	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x666d94…
05-02 13:33:30	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	141	91¢	$128	0x9cd408…
04-30 19:04:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	804	99¢	$800	0x134796…
04-30 18:57:32	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	203	70¢	$142	0xce5b45…
04-30 18:49:02	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	211	71¢	$150	0xcc64a3…
04-30 00:28:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	55,006	0¢	$165	0xcb7b53…
04-29 02:00:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	13,339	0¢	$50	0x138994…
04-29 01:53:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	16,667	0¢	$50	0x204dbe…
04-27 17:54:08	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x2671ff…
04-26 16:18:18	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	154	50¢	$77	0x3f3a32…
04-25 18:18:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	62	84¢	$52	0xdc3374…
04-25 18:08:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc9754d…
04-25 18:06:20	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	15,000	0¢	$15	0xf882ba…
04-25 17:58:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x02fd80…
04-25 17:58:06	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0xf8ff8c…
04-22 21:08:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0xa7da87…
04-21 20:10:20	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	1,461	90¢	$1,315	0x2d9980…
04-20 07:51:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,290	0¢	$1	0x286b60…
04-20 07:48:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xc3b163…
04-20 07:46:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x6d4e24…
04-20 07:46:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	309	0¢	$0	0xe26db0…
04-20 07:43:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,566	0¢	$50	0xed69c9…
04-20 07:43:06	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	88	60¢	$53	0x3fa09f…
04-19 16:43:24	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	975	0¢	$2	0x6e257e…
04-18 19:29:54	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	461	69¢	$320	0x26c429…
04-18 19:29:46	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0xfcab64…
04-18 19:28:34	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	250	66¢	$165	0x4ceebc…
04-18 19:26:30	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	730	69¢	$500	0x29f264…
04-18 13:21:44	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	88	63¢	$55	0x83957e…
04-17 18:07:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xd418df…
04-17 13:36:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	116	12¢	$14	0xd4d07e…
04-17 12:57:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1,250	40¢	$500	0xab2ecc…
04-16 19:40:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,250	24¢	$300	0x36041e…
04-16 18:30:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	1,610	40¢	$644	0xed50f2…
04-16 07:28:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	123	78¢	$97	0xc1b537…
04-15 12:11:44	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	144	77¢	$110	0xa535e5…
04-15 12:10:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,144	28¢	$320	0x852888…
04-15 12:06:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	252	29¢	$73	0x277277…
04-15 12:06:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	SELL	120	77¢	$92	0xd349f3…
04-14 20:53:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	BUY	1,610	27¢	$433	0xaf0b4f…
04-14 20:24:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0xd1c9c2…
04-14 20:23:40	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x4d4d17…
04-14 20:23:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x91a9f7…
04-14 20:22:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	252	40¢	$100	0x013475…
04-14 20:22:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x232183…
04-14 20:20:34	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	142	92¢	$131	0x8f201e…