Dependent-Forte — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$950

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.6%

Resolved

439

Trades

2,122

lifetime

Volume

$27.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-24 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Other

60% 45% -$484

Crypto

17% 59% -$20

Politics

14% 40% -$330

Tech

6% 35% -$123

Sports

3% 71% +$11

Pop-Culture

0% 67% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	35	$610	633	633	+0	open	—	09-15 17:14
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	41	$503	540	540	+0	open	—	09-08 19:20
ucl oly lev2 2026 02 18 oly	12	$462	491	295	+196	No	+$20	02-18 20:59
will wti dip to 75 in august 2026	8	$348	400	300	+100	Yes	-$32	08-04 10:46
bitcoin above 64k on march 28	5	$337	186	185	+0	Yes	-$3	03-27 13:46
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	5	$243	173	101	+72	Yes	-$69	02-18 19:46
highest temperature in lucknow on march 22 2026 30corbelow	5	$231	124	124	+0	Yes	+$4	03-22 08:38
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	32	$210	251	251	+0	open	—	10-15 17:20
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 90 114	3	$198	106	106	+0	No	+$12	02-14 16:50
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 420 439	4	$196	104	104	+0	No	+$10	02-13 14:41
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	19	$195	161	161	+0	Yes	-$4	09-09 23:50
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on february 15	2	$194	101	101	+0	No	+$8	02-15 20:15
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 15	4	$193	102	102	+0	No	+$7	02-14 23:23
will tyler perrys joes college road trip be the top us netflix movie this week	5	$193	102	102	+0	Yes	+$11	02-17 21:54
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 460 479	7	$193	101	101	+0	No	+$7	02-12 23:01
will crime 101 opening weekend box office be between 17m and 20m	4	$193	100	100	+0	No	+$6	02-17 18:17
ethereum above 2200 on february 27	3	$192	101	101	+0	No	+$6	02-26 23:00
bitcoin above 72k on february 27	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$6	02-26 22:59
ethereum above 2100 on february 13	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$6	02-12 22:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	24	$191	219	219	+0	open	—	09-30 09:50
Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	6	$174	150	150	+0	Yes	+$1	10-19 17:08
bitcoin above 64k on february 13	2	$169	100	100	+0	Yes	-$17	02-12 17:02
will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	2	$169	101	101	+0	Yes	-$17	02-25 05:14
jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	17	$167	170	170	+0	No	+$0	08-06 03:17
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	3	$167	90	90	+0	No	-$3	02-27 14:33
will ethereum dip to 1900 february 16 22	3	$166	103	103	+0	Yes	-$20	02-22 13:40
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	3	$165	97	97	+0	Yes	-$21	02-12 18:31
Spain snap election called by November 30?	5	$165	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 07:06
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	12	$165	170	170	+0	Yes	-$14	08-16 17:40
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	17	$161	138	138	+0	No	-$2	09-10 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 09:03:54	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xd48077…
10-24 06:38:17	Will Derke play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x9d7c4b…
10-23 17:55:56	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x965020…
10-23 14:52:53	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x11db26…
10-23 14:52:15	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x05065b…
10-23 14:52:09	Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x189662…
10-23 14:51:44	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x9599ad…
10-23 11:03:42	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x9c2e2a…
10-23 10:25:44	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xebcde7…
10-23 08:24:32	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x6d2c4a…
10-23 08:13:36	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x7e3deb…
10-23 04:09:17	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x9835fb…
10-23 03:50:18	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x98b160…
10-23 03:18:57	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xd33655…
10-23 01:53:30	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	42	7¢	$3	0xe15e66…
10-23 01:39:15	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x5b211c…
10-23 00:35:06	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	28	62¢	$17	0x69b239…
10-23 00:01:24	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	14	61¢	$9	0x55fe1a…
10-22 23:53:56	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x38f9d8…
10-22 23:35:45	Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x1ac4d4…
10-22 23:15:26	Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x3cf73d…
10-22 22:12:18	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xce9445…
10-22 21:46:06	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x2ae4d6…
10-22 20:01:53	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xa5c0b3…
10-22 20:01:51	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x3269af…
10-22 17:16:05	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x5b19a4…
10-22 17:10:17	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x907ff8…
10-22 17:02:03	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$7	0xf6886f…
10-22 17:01:50	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	46¢	$16	0x51b222…
10-22 15:34:54	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xa9a5df…
10-22 15:33:14	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x40e496…
10-22 13:45:02	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x566943…
10-22 13:44:18	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x4562c0…
10-22 13:44:06	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x9a34c2…
10-22 13:44:06	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x9a34c2…
10-22 13:23:53	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xa3d3da…
10-22 12:54:26	Will Derke play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	BUY	14	82¢	$11	0xbc6cce…
10-22 12:54:26	Will Derke play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x70288a…
10-22 11:09:06	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xca0381…
10-22 10:32:12	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xcc16a5…
10-22 08:11:15	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0x377224…
10-22 08:11:14	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	32	61¢	$19	0xb26360…
10-22 06:18:28	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x99c82a…
10-22 03:00:17	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xc0a1d5…
10-22 02:44:27	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x8cd385…
10-22 02:00:53	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x8368eb…
10-22 00:53:20	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2368c8…
10-21 22:24:59	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x855ebc…
10-21 19:10:33	Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x8e5533…
10-21 17:40:48	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xb24bdb…
10-21 17:39:56	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x73d667…
10-21 14:04:00	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x562468…
10-21 12:30:33	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	SELL	44	41¢	$18	0x5b2a3e…
10-21 10:25:21	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x491e1a…
10-21 08:07:06	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf6b925…
10-21 07:26:20	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	13	16¢	$2	0x0238cb…
10-21 07:19:12	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	SELL	42	61¢	$26	0x13d6d7…
10-21 04:15:42	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x76e27a…
10-21 04:15:42	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x331d1e…
10-21 02:53:21	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x00dfa8…
10-21 02:20:26	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9697ac…
10-20 18:20:12	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xd28ede…
10-20 13:33:36	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x2f79d9…
10-20 12:40:14	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xe13d11…
10-20 11:50:32	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x8e938f…
10-20 10:58:33	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	22	38¢	$8	0xc44dd1…
10-20 07:46:31	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x5e0989…
10-20 07:41:32	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xf9842d…
10-20 07:36:31	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xe6a999…
10-20 07:15:41	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0xd1b9db…
10-20 07:15:20	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x7ad161…
10-20 06:35:35	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1b176c…
10-20 06:35:17	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xcb6d81…
10-20 06:35:10	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x014a81…
10-20 06:35:07	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0x763cd0…
10-20 04:00:54	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x4cf1ac…
10-20 02:32:50	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x3d20a3…
10-19 21:25:12	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xfe4679…
10-19 21:25:12	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x7e11f9…
10-19 21:17:24	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc92192…
10-19 20:03:32	Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0x953724…
10-19 19:58:41	Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0xbfa2ab…
10-19 17:39:39	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xdccb87…
10-19 17:08:00	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xd3ecf8…
10-19 15:59:24	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x63258b…
10-19 15:28:02	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xf85003…
10-19 13:16:23	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x1d350c…
10-19 12:49:29	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x996e06…
10-19 12:18:17	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x9cda5f…
10-19 12:10:50	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xd04081…
10-19 12:01:44	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x36ae86…
10-19 07:36:39	Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x3fe8e3…
10-19 06:01:33	Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	17	28¢	$5	0x9ae438…
10-19 05:27:15	Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	26	28¢	$7	0x7efa6e…
10-19 04:56:24	Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$13	0x509699…
10-19 04:17:18	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x5f9ca5…
10-18 18:09:12	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x725332…
10-18 16:45:32	Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x8c39fb…
10-18 15:51:12	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xbe8fc9…
10-18 09:17:44	Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x966e9c…