Bowed-Farmland — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$76

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

24.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$289

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 06-01 12:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

92% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

3% 33% $-76

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$183	97¢	$195	+$12	06-01 12:41
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	+68	$61	96¢	$65	+$4	06-01 07:11
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+100	$28	29¢	$29	+$0	06-01 07:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	17	$2.5K	2,878	2,878	+0	open	—	04-23 09:14
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	13	$985	4,170	297	+3,873	open	—	04-23 14:09
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	18	$499	1,468	796	+672	open	—	04-23 14:09
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	6	$183	200	0	+200	open	—	06-01 12:41
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$139	155	0	+155	open	—	04-24 11:33
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	1	$91	100	0	+100	open	—	06-01 07:10
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	1	$61	68	0	+68	open	—	06-01 07:11
Thunder vs. Lakers	1	$50	210	0	+210	Thunder	$-50	05-09 10:24
Thunder vs. Lakers	2	$45	200	0	+200	Thunder	$-45	05-11 03:39
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	1	$31	50	0	+50	Cavaliers	+$19	05-09 10:27
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$28	100	0	+100	open	—	06-01 07:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 12:41:58	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0xd393a7…
06-01 09:46:45	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	91¢	$41	0x1d993d…
06-01 08:57:45	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x7a30d7…
06-01 08:31:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xdf11f1…
06-01 07:44:17	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0xee4f65…
06-01 07:11:20	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	BUY	68	91¢	$61	0xb6e213…
06-01 07:10:32	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x3a63a7…
06-01 07:10:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x6ec3c1…
06-01 07:09:24	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	91¢	$73	0xa844b8…
05-11 03:39:48	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xb6b7e3…
05-09 10:27:06	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x11c111…
05-09 10:25:32	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x51e177…
05-09 10:24:11	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	210	24¢	$50	0x58ade5…
04-24 11:33:16	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	155	90¢	$139	0x4b5c2f…
04-23 14:09:44	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xc3e5e2…
04-23 14:09:44	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x3aa308…
04-23 13:51:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0xa2b5ea…
04-23 13:51:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	48	37¢	$18	0x012c9b…
04-23 13:42:42	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	27	37¢	$10	0x49955b…
04-23 13:18:06	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0x16477c…
04-23 10:48:54	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	BUY	390	22¢	$86	0x919b6a…
04-23 10:47:50	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	BUY	1,682	22¢	$368	0xc8482a…
04-23 09:14:32	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	500	90¢	$450	0xd8df29…
04-23 04:07:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xd49e6b…
04-23 04:05:42	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x0ff1e3…
04-23 04:05:32	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xd59c7d…
04-23 04:05:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xa57774…
04-23 04:05:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	370	79¢	$293	0xa57774…
04-23 04:04:28	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	136	19¢	$26	0x670b23…
04-23 04:04:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x025589…
04-23 04:04:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1,107	19¢	$210	0x3aba54…
04-23 04:04:04	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	320	20¢	$64	0xfc45e9…
04-23 04:03:56	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	297	20¢	$59	0xba86b9…
04-23 03:57:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	189	24¢	$45	0x20bfe8…
04-23 03:54:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,680	26¢	$445	0xf7dbb0…
04-23 03:53:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	509	71¢	$360	0x7b1051…
04-22 21:39:12	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	43	23¢	$10	0xe653f6…
04-22 15:38:10	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf88a24…
04-22 15:38:10	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	99	18¢	$18	0xc8f5ea…
04-22 10:51:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	173	82¢	$142	0x4c1b68…
04-22 10:51:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	27	82¢	$22	0x07c1c4…
04-22 10:51:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	309	83¢	$256	0xda5b7e…
04-22 10:45:12	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	68	24¢	$16	0x82ad7d…
04-22 10:43:24	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	32	21¢	$7	0x893e5c…
04-22 10:42:28	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	114	20¢	$23	0x6362cd…
04-22 10:41:46	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	16	22¢	$3	0xe6c042…
04-22 08:33:46	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x20d441…
04-22 07:54:32	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	48	20¢	$10	0x13e00c…
04-22 07:53:54	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	SELL	45	23¢	$10	0xc4001e…
04-22 07:48:28	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	37	22¢	$8	0x5637bf…
04-22 07:41:24	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	261	24¢	$62	0xc1d412…
04-22 07:39:28	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0x6a1441…
04-22 07:39:26	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	107	31¢	$33	0x401e04…
04-22 07:37:46	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	95	35¢	$34	0x4e7286…
04-22 06:59:42	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x708330…
04-22 06:57:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	90	20¢	$18	0xc94b00…
04-22 06:57:20	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	948	20¢	$190	0x7adfc5…
04-22 06:53:56	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	BUY	898	23¢	$211	0xca909e…
04-22 06:51:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	No	BUY	1,200	20¢	$240	0xa286b7…
04-22 06:29:14	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x97d288…
04-22 06:28:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x7ab31d…
04-22 06:27:42	Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x72cb5f…