Long-Term-Understatement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

-$34

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$491

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$86

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-30 13:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 100% +$51

Politics

33% 0% -$20

Sports

8% 0% -$40

Other

4% 100% +$9

Tech

4% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+107	$20	20¢	$21	+$1	05-21 23:53
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+54	$20	28¢	$15	-$5	10-13 22:43
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+142	$20	9¢	$13	-$7	07-18 15:22
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+200	$20	6¢	$13	-$7	10-13 22:42
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+79	$20	16¢	$13	-$7	06-02 20:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	+200	$20	6¢	$11	-$9	10-13 22:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$94	54	54	+0	Down	+$14	10-30 13:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$56	36	36	+0	Down	+$16	10-29 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	2	$51	31	31	+0	Down	+$11	10-29 23:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$50	31	31	+0	No	+$10	06-02 20:06
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$40	130	0	+130	No	-$40	02-22 14:35
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$20	200	0	+200	open	—	10-13 22:42
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$20	54	0	+54	open	—	10-13 22:43
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	1	$20	95	0	+95	No	-$20	10-26 20:44
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	1	$20	200	0	+200	open	—	10-13 22:41
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$20	79	0	+79	open	—	06-02 20:15
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	1	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	05-16 21:30
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$20	142	0	+142	open	—	07-18 15:22
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	1	$20	106	0	+106	Yes	-$20	05-21 23:50
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$20	107	0	+107	open	—	05-21 23:53
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	29	0	+29	No	+$9	05-16 21:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 13:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0x32df51…
10-30 13:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x20b823…
10-30 13:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x244863…
10-29 23:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x01434b…
10-29 23:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xeb1c84…
10-29 06:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x79f46d…
10-29 05:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x7ea1fe…
10-26 20:44:59	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x9bb6bf…
10-13 22:43:10	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xc4a90b…
10-13 22:42:28	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xcf351e…
10-13 22:41:13	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x9781cd…
07-18 15:22:03	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	142	14¢	$20	0x95f59a…
06-02 20:15:01	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0xa2b328…
06-02 20:06:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x4bb0b7…
05-21 23:53:58	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	107	19¢	$20	0x48a58e…
05-21 23:50:16	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	106	19¢	$20	0x4cf97f…
05-16 21:32:08	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xa9b754…
05-16 21:31:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x0c29d9…
05-16 21:30:09	Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0xe52982…
02-22 14:35:58	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x9d64fe…
02-20 17:33:48	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	68	30¢	$20	0x91f173…