Substantial-Slipper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$471

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

20.5%

Resolved

592

Trades

2,096

lifetime

Volume

$18.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-09

last 08-28 07:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Other

60% 14% -$132

Politics

27% 7% -$151

Crypto

9% 34% -$131

Tech

2% 0% -$18

Sports

1% 5% -$41

Pop-Culture

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes		+0	$1	24¢	$0	-$1	06-28 03:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$752	600	600	+0	No	+$0	03-23 02:53
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	16	$588	600	600	+0	Up	+$2	02-13 10:03
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$584	400	400	+0	Yes	-$4	03-08 00:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	8	$565	1,100	1,100	+0	No	-$1	06-01 09:35
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	9	$556	300	300	+0	open	—	08-04 02:38
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	8	$389	250	250	+0	No	-$1	08-04 02:32
spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	10	$330	450	200	+250	Down	-$14	03-19 10:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 08:30 UTC	2	$292	154	154	+0	Up	+$4	03-13 08:36
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1?	7	$292	200	200	+0	Up	+$0	06-01 10:11
israel closes its airspace by august 15	15	$270	383	383	+0	No	-$3	08-04 22:14
spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	6	$256	300	300	+0	Up	-$6	03-23 04:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$254	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	03-08 01:16
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$254	400	400	+0	Yes	-$8	02-28 05:30
will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	15	$209	350	350	+0	No	-$1	08-04 17:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	10	$208	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 05:28
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	9	$206	166	166	+0	No	-$2	08-03 15:49
spx up or down on march 19 2026	6	$204	200	200	+0	Down	+$2	03-19 10:32
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	3	$183	100	100	+0	open	—	08-03 12:07
Will Jean Smart – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series?	3	$182	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 07:53
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	3	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	08-04 17:08
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?	3	$175	100	100	+0	open	—	08-05 01:42
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$175	250	250	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 05:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 03:15 UTC	5	$159	187	20	+167	Down	+$17	03-13 03:28
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	4	$153	80	100	-20	No	+$18	02-28 05:31
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$141	200	200	+0	No	-$7	03-01 04:07
will the emmanuel grgoire list win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 paris municipal election by 5	14	$140	164	164	+0	No	-$6	03-18 07:44
will the emmanuel grgoire list win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 paris municipal election by 510	8	$124	150	150	+0	Yes	+$2	03-17 16:04
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	21	$119	266	266	+0	Yes	-$7	06-30 06:12
spx up or down on february 9 2026	2	$119	100	100	+0	Up	+$1	02-09 09:26
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$115	100	100	+0	No	-$1	03-08 01:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-28 07:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xf1ae53…
08-28 07:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xc1e3cb…
08-28 07:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xeb60f3…
08-28 07:12:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x1e9f84…
08-28 07:12:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x85df5e…
08-28 07:12:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x83a318…
08-28 07:11:49	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x207c66…
08-28 07:05:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x706522…
08-28 07:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x8f4382…
08-28 07:03:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xff6ead…
08-28 07:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xb10165…
08-28 07:03:16	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x0fff6e…
08-28 07:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x4d99d5…
08-28 07:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x7e5a12…
08-28 07:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x32275c…
08-28 07:03:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x8c67fe…
08-28 07:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 29?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x1bd8c1…
08-28 07:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xd52cf3…
08-28 07:03:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x772f9a…
08-28 07:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xc1a4d8…
08-28 07:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xe244d1…
08-28 07:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x0396b2…
08-28 07:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xf47889…
08-28 07:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x5a7200…
08-28 07:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x53092e…
08-28 07:02:52	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xd7d220…
08-28 07:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x24b1f5…
08-28 07:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x1d1c30…
08-28 07:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x03844e…
08-28 07:02:43	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xcb1f31…
08-28 07:02:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xf35aec…
08-28 07:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xb9c7d5…
08-28 07:02:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 28?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x720fa2…
08-28 07:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x049984…
08-28 03:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb7a56f…
08-28 02:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	1	41¢	$1	0x46f9de…
08-28 02:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4a950b…
08-28 02:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$1	0x842f63…
08-27 20:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x3ed1fd…
08-27 20:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x076785…
08-27 20:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x55abf3…
08-27 18:56:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xc00f51…
08-27 18:52:07	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1d3669…
08-27 17:56:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x269e0d…
08-27 17:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xcbbd10…
08-27 17:51:43	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x35e242…
08-27 17:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd17f9a…
08-27 16:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x35afc7…
08-27 15:13:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa6a020…
08-27 15:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xd1ebe4…
08-27 13:28:36	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xbaa478…
08-27 12:16:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x979ad0…
08-27 07:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd5f93d…
08-27 06:48:54	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x486b8c…
08-27 06:47:21	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x0e4ca2…
08-27 06:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x806874…
08-27 06:09:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xead057…
08-27 06:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x534ac0…
08-27 06:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xee7d0b…
08-27 06:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x21f57c…
08-27 05:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc1b3a4…
08-27 04:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 28?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x0a14bb…
08-26 22:56:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xa5d762…
08-26 22:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x9c60d8…
08-26 22:34:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0xcfdbf2…
08-26 22:03:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xc14df5…
08-26 22:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x226359…
08-26 19:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x03156e…
08-26 18:41:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x0514e7…
08-26 18:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xbf3a13…
08-26 18:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x656fb0…
08-26 16:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xf4c38c…
08-26 16:20:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xec10fa…
08-26 15:17:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x78609e…
08-26 12:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1c6f48…
08-26 09:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe27312…
08-26 08:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x783221…
08-26 02:05:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcf5301…
08-25 22:43:13	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x121f9e…
08-25 22:34:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x99796f…
08-25 22:25:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x7adf97…
08-25 20:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x0d33a4…
08-25 19:33:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1a6fb2…
08-25 18:38:01	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7e2c36…
08-25 18:17:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x638205…
08-25 17:31:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe5051b…
08-25 17:20:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x961767…
08-25 15:28:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd5be72…
08-25 15:16:01	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x0cd3bd…
08-25 13:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xffe10f…
08-25 12:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x2dd5ac…
08-25 12:57:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x4d9332…
08-25 12:53:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x324970…
08-25 12:39:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x136115…
08-25 12:12:12	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe29f58…
08-25 12:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xa2c986…
08-25 09:46:07	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xaab6f4…
08-25 08:09:33	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd58f6c…
08-25 07:47:30	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xdedecc…
08-25 07:47:30	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbf0754…