Nimble-Checking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

47.8%

Resolved

Trades

952

lifetime

Volume

$3.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-24

last 06-30 11:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

37% — —

Other

35% — —

Politics

22% 0% $-1

Sports

3% 100% +$5

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No		-8	$-4	62¢	$-5	$-1	06-28 03:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	17	$294	6,922	6,922	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	11	$280	1,994	1,994	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	9	$150	158	179	-21	open	—	03-15 01:57
fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	21	$116	6,510	6,510	+0	open	—	03-15 01:59
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	11	$116	6,641	6,641	+0	open	—	03-15 01:56
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	3	$109	138	138	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$106	148	148	+0	open	—	03-09 15:20
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	6	$104	87	107	-20	open	—	03-15 01:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	18	$85	899	899	+0	open	—	03-15 01:57
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	6	$69	1,469	1,469	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$63	3,077	3,077	+0	open	—	03-10 17:22
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	3	$63	5,714	5,714	+0	open	—	03-07 02:43
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$55	1,396	1,396	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	5	$54	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	03-15 01:57
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	5	$53	54	107	-53	open	—	03-05 07:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$49	65	65	+0	Yes	$-1	02-25 13:03
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	11	$48	1,267	1,267	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	4	$48	62	62	+0	open	—	02-25 13:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$47	238	238	+0	open	—	03-05 07:08
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$45	33	33	+0	Yes	+$5	03-05 07:08
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$40	47	0	+47	open	—	03-06 18:58
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?	3	$32	31	31	+0	open	—	05-29 18:37
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$30	58	58	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$29	68	68	+0	open	—	03-06 15:02
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$27	4,574	4,574	+0	open	—	03-05 15:03
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	1	$25	70	0	+70	open	—	02-24 18:29
bitcoin up or down on march 5	2	$25	44	44	+0	open	—	03-05 15:04
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$24	465	465	+0	open	—	03-15 01:55
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 160 179	2	$20	135	135	+0	open	—	03-05 15:04
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$20	0	58	-58	open	—	03-05 07:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 11:53:35	Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0xd2cb04…
06-30 09:27:10	Will Aurora make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	9	84¢	$7	0xb0ac49…
06-30 08:42:34	Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8c98ee…
06-28 14:39:04	Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x847b3e…
06-28 03:26:26	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x438a17…
06-18 14:12:17	Will Ninjas in Pyjamas make a roster change before July?	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xee5ec5…
06-18 13:10:47	Will Top Esports make a roster change before July?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xdf37a4…
06-17 16:47:53	Will Aurora make a roster change before July?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x06d7db…
06-17 14:45:31	Will Ninjas in Pyjamas make a roster change before July?	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xad5657…
06-11 11:15:40	Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xab721e…
06-11 11:12:03	Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0xdb5765…
06-11 04:00:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x156bc2…
05-30 21:05:29	Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x8661fe…
05-29 18:37:04	Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	31	50¢	$16	0x882295…
05-29 08:21:52	Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x1bc402…
05-29 05:12:03	Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x522828…
05-29 03:07:51	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	BUY	29	28¢	$8	0x292bae…
05-28 12:54:38	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	32	28¢	$9	0x9a3947…
05-27 22:37:26	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0x473bbf…
05-24 03:46:21	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x1dd85a…
04-28 10:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbfda91…
04-28 04:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xeddac8…
04-28 04:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4c3eac…
04-28 04:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0bdda7…
04-28 03:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x719524…
04-28 01:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x866662…
04-28 01:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xee5309…
04-28 01:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3b9c31…
04-28 00:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x684721…
04-28 00:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x12a8a7…
04-28 00:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1608ed…
04-28 00:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x167d19…
04-27 23:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x30f7af…
04-27 23:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa4b443…
04-27 23:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7c9ca5…
04-27 22:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x770d1d…
04-27 22:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3b7994…
04-27 22:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfd0327…
04-27 22:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6b6954…
04-27 21:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc18ddf…
04-27 21:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x512de5…
04-27 20:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa06dbd…
04-27 20:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbf6e41…
04-27 20:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc18229…
04-27 20:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfafd66…
04-27 19:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5fec73…
04-27 19:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5d5d75…
04-27 19:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa473fb…
04-27 19:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x63358e…
04-27 19:12:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x08f322…
04-27 19:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8f4535…
04-27 12:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb1f14a…
04-27 11:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc7bfc6…
04-27 11:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7a6459…
04-27 11:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x266f14…
04-27 11:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd99b57…
04-27 11:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xad228c…
04-27 10:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xccb744…
04-27 10:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xaeb03a…
04-27 10:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x199977…
04-27 10:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x59b18d…
04-27 07:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x98621c…
04-27 05:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xed7c87…
04-27 04:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xac6ac4…
04-27 04:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x00f36a…
04-27 04:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0f13c2…
04-27 04:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf621b6…
04-27 03:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x65393f…
04-27 03:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb6513b…
04-27 03:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8753eb…
04-27 01:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x34d7e5…
04-27 01:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x89e371…
04-27 01:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcc2952…
04-27 00:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x1e2657…
04-27 00:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xab37a2…
04-27 00:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x911f5f…
04-26 23:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x034483…
04-26 23:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x365b25…
04-26 23:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xcafa14…
04-26 22:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x197718…
04-26 22:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xef6c01…
04-26 22:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x75183a…
04-26 22:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xead7fe…
04-26 22:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1d1f58…
04-26 22:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb76144…
04-26 22:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xccb28b…
04-26 22:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0xd0d6ce…
04-26 22:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x878a98…
04-26 22:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x91d09e…
04-26 22:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd2c964…
04-26 22:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xde0f98…
04-26 21:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb3df3d…
04-26 21:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5d0294…
04-26 21:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc9778e…
04-26 21:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x7e6d10…
04-26 21:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x2dfbb1…
04-26 21:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x17b8cb…
04-26 21:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8fae9e…
04-26 21:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc09b9f…
04-26 21:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd8f680…