Thoughtful-Contrail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$168

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 02:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% 100% +$0

Tech

26% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Politics

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1773062100	4	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-09 13:23
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	3	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	02-13 12:05
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	3	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	01-20 09:24
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	03-20 11:35
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	3	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	01-16 07:20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-23 09:36
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-24 12:11
btc updown 15m 1770729300	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 13:20
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	03-26 03:35
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	02-03 01:28
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 65 89	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	03-28 14:05
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	03-11 12:41
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	04-13 01:34
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	02-27 05:44
gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	06-09 02:02
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	01-17 14:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-28 08:30
will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	03-30 02:32
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	01-22 11:53
gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	06-04 12:11
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-19 15:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-07 06:57
btc updown 15m 1770613200	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-09 05:08
will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-05 14:43
will hegseth say this president during press conference	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-08 08:31
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 65 89	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-01 14:07
will kiss all the time disco occasionally by harry styles be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of march 28	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-21 08:18
will mrbeast hit 462 million subscribers by january 31	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-14 09:46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-19 08:29
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-02 02:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 02:02:18	gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb17cd6…
06-04 12:11:36	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcca909…
06-01 12:34:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x3d1ca1…
05-28 08:30:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xc28254…
05-17 14:36:19	Will "In the Grey" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x92f8a9…
05-13 02:21:59	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9748ce…
05-06 15:05:40	Will "Influencer" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x24d641…
05-03 02:26:18	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb095d0…
04-30 01:07:54	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5cab2a…
04-28 07:47:14	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x65b40f…
04-23 09:36:56	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x466313…
04-23 09:36:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe413d1…
04-23 09:35:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x39a18a…
04-20 11:34:42	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf6e220…
04-19 08:29:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc985a8…
04-16 10:09:28	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd0ea34…
04-13 01:34:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x7b1418…
04-09 07:15:51	will elizabeth taylor get 3 million or more views in the first week	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0883a1…
04-08 08:31:03	will hegseth say this president during press conference	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa9dd40…
04-07 06:57:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x6056d7…
04-02 22:01:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9e133c…
04-01 14:07:51	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 65 89	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x70cc47…
03-30 02:32:04	will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5b1908…
03-28 14:05:57	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 65 89	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x31c945…
03-28 14:04:59	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 65 89	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x481eb5…
03-26 03:35:31	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x282fd6…
03-23 02:07:43	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe6bbd9…
03-21 08:18:17	will kiss all the time disco occasionally by harry styles be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of march 28	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x34d514…
03-20 11:35:13	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc203bf…
03-18 13:52:41	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on us spotify this week 598	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf59f03…
03-16 12:03:27	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x481c54…
03-15 10:23:15	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfe5ace…
03-14 14:29:25	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x7e3af9…
03-11 12:41:27	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x49e6ce…
03-10 14:39:31	will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in february 694 291 362 384	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xac5759…
03-09 13:23:03	btc updown 15m 1773062100	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x47de69…
03-09 13:22:57	btc updown 15m 1773062100	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xacb08f…
03-09 13:22:49	btc updown 15m 1773062100	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa7639d…
03-09 13:22:43	btc updown 15m 1773062100	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x777e47…
03-06 15:10:03	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 6	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xec7301…
03-05 14:43:59	will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc361d5…
03-05 13:22:55	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x7921b9…
03-01 11:50:01	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x962fe6…
02-28 12:10:29	AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xffe1be…
02-27 05:44:54	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbffd4e…
02-27 05:44:34	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0efbc3…
02-26 08:28:16	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6a711d…
02-24 12:32:16	will israel strike lebanon on february 21 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4ccaab…
02-19 15:48:30	will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xaba949…
02-14 12:22:45	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x094a1f…
02-13 12:05:19	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbfb125…
02-11 14:07:45	btc updown 15m 1770818400	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7ea15b…
02-11 14:07:27	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xceb085…
02-10 13:20:57	will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcce97d…
02-10 13:20:35	btc updown 15m 1770729300	Up	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x6f56f0…
02-10 13:20:11	btc updown 15m 1770729300	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x2049c7…
02-09 05:08:37	btc updown 15m 1770613200	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x48bbd0…
02-06 13:27:55	elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 0 39	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc6bf90…
02-04 14:35:42	will data center be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 855	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x38d7b6…
02-03 01:28:46	Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x487525…
02-03 01:27:28	Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2a0259…
02-01 13:40:30	will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd7500a…
01-29 12:36:38	elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 0 39	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf7da03…
01-27 01:39:31	elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 0 39	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3277bb…
01-24 12:11:28	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xf72026…
01-22 11:53:22	Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6820b4…
01-21 04:58:26	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5f25f2…
01-20 09:24:56	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x44d694…
01-19 12:55:26	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x4f9c9f…
01-17 14:09:40	will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xb1189f…
01-16 07:20:42	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc2049f…
01-15 12:12:34	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4df618…
01-14 09:46:58	will mrbeast hit 462 million subscribers by january 31	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x54cd9f…
01-13 07:41:07	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x52069f…
01-10 12:46:22	will avatar fire and ash 4th weekend box office be less than 27m	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa41cc3…
01-08 08:03:01	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x26c371…
01-06 08:34:47	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xe1049b…
01-04 12:52:41	will stellan skarsgrd be nominated for best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x142be1…
01-02 02:50:29	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xddc143…
01-01 13:04:51	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc66c32…