Adolescent-External — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

20.7%

Resolved

Trades

872

lifetime

Volume

$3.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 05-26 12:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 32% $-4

Politics

25% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 142 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$359	492	492	+0	open	—	05-23 22:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	3	$188	4,603	0	+4,603	open	—	05-19 11:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$106	1,325	0	+1,325	open	—	05-26 12:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$100	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	05-26 12:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	1	$35	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-24 13:08
btc updown 5m 1776954600	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-23 14:34
btc updown 5m 1776796500	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-21 18:39
btc updown 5m 1777047300	3	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-24 16:19
btc updown 5m 1776872100	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-22 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-28 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-27 22:49
btc updown 5m 1776956400	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-23 15:04
btc updown 5m 1777053300	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-24 17:59
btc updown 5m 1776958200	2	$7	2	5	-3	open	—	04-23 15:34
btc updown 5m 1776794100	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-21 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	2	$6	2	5	-3	Down	+$0	05-05 08:44
btc updown 5m 1776969000	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-23 18:34
btc updown 5m 1776795300	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-21 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-25 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-26 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-24 21:14
btc updown 5m 1776961500	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-23 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$6	21	5	+16	Up	$-1	05-05 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$6	2	5	-3	open	—	04-28 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	05-03 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	04-27 22:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	05-04 02:43
btc updown 5m 1776959100	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	04-23 15:49
btc updown 5m 1776972600	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	04-23 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	04-27 23:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-26 12:07:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	700	8¢	$56	0xd8b404…
05-26 12:07:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0x977ee8…
05-26 12:07:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0xcb06c6…
05-26 12:07:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xc57de9…
05-26 11:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xad13a6…
05-26 11:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xcfbf0f…
05-26 10:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x3e3af6…
05-26 04:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xa72995…
05-26 03:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x4469bf…
05-26 03:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xda68db…
05-26 03:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0xbfbd34…
05-26 00:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x261a71…
05-26 00:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x6346da…
05-25 23:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x681864…
05-25 19:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x287c33…
05-25 14:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0865a8…
05-25 13:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x9131f5…
05-25 10:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xecf2ff…
05-25 09:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x5a8e99…
05-25 08:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0xe6ca83…
05-25 07:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa1c6da…
05-25 06:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x721fe1…
05-25 04:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x718cf5…
05-25 03:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5b37b5…
05-25 00:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x5dac48…
05-24 23:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x4d14f3…
05-24 22:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xa544b4…
05-24 20:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x4058aa…
05-24 19:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd2f278…
05-24 16:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x69ca3e…
05-24 14:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x0eeeac…
05-24 14:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0a7653…
05-24 08:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x542a41…
05-24 04:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc8e6e6…
05-24 03:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x1e8670…
05-24 03:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xaa8f54…
05-24 03:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x673b37…
05-24 03:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf3aa3a…
05-24 02:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb4378f…
05-24 01:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xc201f4…
05-24 01:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x20de76…
05-24 01:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa761d8…
05-24 01:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xebbff9…
05-24 00:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x544ce4…
05-24 00:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5351ad…
05-24 00:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9400fc…
05-24 00:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x378bb2…
05-24 00:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x3d8f42…
05-23 23:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf04006…
05-23 23:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x3fde53…
05-23 23:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6701c4…
05-23 23:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x3cdd55…
05-23 22:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2d0fd1…
05-23 22:24:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	492	61¢	$300	0x462263…
05-19 11:44:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	950	4¢	$38	0x41c0b0…
05-19 11:41:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	417	12¢	$50	0x1cfbda…
05-19 11:41:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,191	4¢	$50	0x17388f…
05-19 11:38:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	12¢	$9	0x4c3c9a…
05-19 11:38:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,462	4¢	$100	0x729ba1…
05-05 19:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xdbd999…
05-05 17:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x08bb0b…
05-05 16:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x1263c7…
05-05 16:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xc739b6…
05-05 15:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x0f8ad3…
05-05 15:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xa627c3…
05-05 14:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b8cea…
05-05 14:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$3	0x92c689…
05-05 10:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6a4b9c…
05-05 10:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x7524df…
05-05 10:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe1271e…
05-05 10:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x4120c6…
05-05 08:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5df860…
05-05 08:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xc0cc2e…
05-05 08:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5bf5e2…
05-05 07:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x3fdb2b…
05-05 03:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xde6465…
05-05 02:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x531c12…
05-05 01:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x8537c7…
05-04 23:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x40c282…
05-04 21:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x98dd3d…
05-04 20:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7f0af4…
05-04 19:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8b8fef…
05-04 18:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x53febf…
05-04 18:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x81cb5f…
05-04 15:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa72320…
05-04 14:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x936be8…
05-04 13:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x9b128d…
05-04 12:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5d4db3…
05-04 11:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8c03ed…
05-04 09:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0xc74e11…
05-04 07:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x7ba434…
05-04 04:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4eb6c3…
05-04 02:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x99a7fd…
05-04 02:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x3cc457…
05-04 02:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3614bb…
05-04 02:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x05cbb9…
05-04 02:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x34871c…
05-04 01:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x272639…
05-04 01:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x810b9f…
05-04 01:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x93a75d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	835	$280.3K	45,373	05-26 11:59
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	835	$271.7K	78,741	05-26 11:59
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	821	$280.7K	81,814	05-26 11:59
(anonymous) 0x5e2b…9101	821	$81.5K	9,819	05-26 11:58
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	819	$301.6K	49,188	05-26 11:59
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	819	$72.0K	8,675	05-26 11:58
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	812	$139.6K	8,904	05-26 11:56
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	811	$524.4K	33,184	05-26 11:59