Fancy-Drawbridge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$135

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.8%

Resolved

105

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$13.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-12 06:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Sports

80% 23% -$15

Other

7% 85% -$122

Politics

7% 33% +$1

Crypto

5% 97% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	34	$3.8K	11,493	11,493	+0	No	-$3	06-17 02:22
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	3	$1.0K	521	520	+1	No	-$1	03-06 06:00
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$983	492	492	+0	No	$0	02-05 08:03
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$957	480	479	+1	No	$0	03-06 06:00
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$937	472	472	+0	No	$0	01-08 01:04
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$892	447	447	+0	No	$0	01-06 08:05
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$891	446	446	+0	No	$0	01-07 08:56
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$890	449	448	+1	No	$0	03-06 06:01
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	2	$872	436	436	+0	No	$0	01-08 01:02
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$111	484	484	+0	No	-$4	03-06 11:10
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	1	$102	119	0	+119	No	-$102	07-03 03:29
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	8	$64	943	943	+0	Yes	-$44	03-07 01:06
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	1	$50	69	0	+69	No	+$19	05-16 10:21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 13?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	10-12 06:21
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	09-11 06:46
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	2	$43	23	20	+3	No	$0	05-18 02:08
Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$42	22	20	+2	No	+$0	08-24 05:29
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	2	$41	21	20	+1	No	+$0	05-27 07:28
bitcoin above 78k on march 31	2	$33	17	16	+1	No	+$0	03-31 03:04
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$31	16	15	+1	No	+$0	06-26 04:59
will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$29	15	14	+1	No	$0	03-12 05:52
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026?	2	$28	15	14	+2	No	$0	03-12 05:52
will bitcoin dip to 48k july 13 19 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	07-16 06:12
will ethereum reach 2500 july 13 19 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	07-16 06:13
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	2	$23	12	11	+1	No	$0	03-12 05:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$22	18	17	+1	Yes	$0	03-06 06:00
nba was phi 2026 01 07	1	$20	22	0	+22	76ers	+$2	01-08 01:02
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in August?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-24 05:35
will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	+$0	03-06 06:00
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	2	$19	10	9	+1	No	+$0	03-12 05:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 06:21:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xec34f8…
09-11 06:46:52	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf25965…
08-24 05:35:48	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in August?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0c338a…
08-24 05:29:51	Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4fd5a4…
08-12 05:54:04	Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xaa7db4…
08-12 05:53:43	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x83363e…
08-12 05:53:21	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe396e8…
07-16 06:13:04	will ethereum reach 2500 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x106ebb…
07-16 06:12:47	will bitcoin dip to 48k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x54ccf3…
07-03 03:29:14	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	119	86¢	$102	0xdf8730…
06-26 05:00:28	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa78321…
06-26 05:00:19	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xbb2ce7…
06-26 05:00:10	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xd08b12…
06-26 05:00:02	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x45ce3d…
06-26 04:59:56	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x003bad…
06-26 04:59:41	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x31719d…
06-17 02:22:07	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,797	18¢	$515	0x942ae7…
06-17 02:20:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,797	18¢	$517	0x0b7a08…
06-12 04:55:16	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x1bf69b…
06-11 14:04:27	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x995884…
06-11 14:03:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0x81be6e…
06-11 14:03:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	373	16¢	$60	0xfb01a5…
06-11 14:03:24	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	431	16¢	$69	0xf40d0d…
06-11 14:03:24	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0x075610…
06-11 14:03:16	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	373	16¢	$60	0x99c999…
06-11 14:03:10	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	123	16¢	$20	0xabc0a4…
06-11 14:03:03	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0xc1868a…
06-11 14:02:52	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0x1d311e…
06-11 14:02:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	621	16¢	$100	0x0cb366…
06-11 14:02:30	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x3d7a5e…
06-11 14:02:19	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0xade514…
06-11 14:00:51	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	93	16¢	$15	0x4c8757…
06-11 14:00:36	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	636	16¢	$102	0xde44a7…
06-11 14:00:00	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xa8d120…
06-11 13:59:39	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0xbffeb3…
06-11 13:59:31	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xfa0760…
06-11 13:59:09	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	149	16¢	$24	0x700d5d…
06-11 13:58:55	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	186	16¢	$30	0x48f6bb…
06-11 13:58:46	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,197	16¢	$193	0x85b5a9…
06-11 13:58:37	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xfeb235…
06-11 13:58:00	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xc24c66…
06-11 13:57:27	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,992	16¢	$482	0x3cd21a…
06-11 13:55:51	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x19f58f…
06-11 13:55:48	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	59	16¢	$10	0x931d49…
06-11 13:55:42	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	598	16¢	$96	0x042eb8…
06-11 13:55:15	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	59	16¢	$10	0x5b10fa…
06-11 13:55:15	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	124	16¢	$20	0x3c0ac7…
06-11 13:55:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x39b39d…
06-11 13:54:52	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	46	16¢	$7	0x61245b…
06-11 03:01:33	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	8,696	16¢	$1,400	0x7c665b…
06-10 03:34:33	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9bc628…
06-10 03:34:12	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf388b7…
06-10 03:33:37	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x79009f…
06-10 03:33:19	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x97637f…
05-27 07:31:22	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb6ce1e…
05-27 07:31:03	Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe3f223…
05-27 07:30:42	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdb3dc4…
05-27 07:28:10	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x0b3ae1…
05-18 02:14:47	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1304f5…
05-18 02:14:20	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa2a064…
05-18 02:08:51	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xba5bf2…
05-18 02:08:34	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x0cadad…
05-16 10:23:00	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xea0c9e…
05-16 10:22:28	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7df0f9…
05-16 10:21:34	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	69	73¢	$50	0x6b60ae…
05-06 03:39:26	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x0679ef…
05-06 03:38:04	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd2754a…
04-14 01:20:45	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 240plus	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd7f657…
04-14 01:20:37	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 215 239	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x05b27c…
04-14 01:20:21	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 580plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbc1c09…
04-14 01:20:13	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc6919e…
04-14 01:19:55	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 400 419	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8c5714…
04-08 01:10:59	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 240plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdf02f8…
04-08 01:10:51	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 165 189	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x318758…
04-08 01:10:39	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x87d583…
04-08 01:10:29	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xe86717…
04-08 01:10:11	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xeab955…
04-08 01:09:57	bitcoin above 56k on april 10	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9e77f9…
04-08 01:09:47	bitcoin above 56k on april 9	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x19a828…
04-08 01:09:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1fd652…
03-31 03:08:41	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc5641c…
03-31 03:08:31	bitcoin above 80k on april 2	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2480b2…
03-31 03:08:03	bitcoin above 80k on april 1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x70fcf2…
03-31 03:04:15	bitcoin above 78k on march 31	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xd8471e…
03-30 03:30:02	bitcoin above 78k on march 31	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xbf05c5…
03-30 03:29:44	bitcoin above 72k on march 30	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x13c2df…
03-30 03:29:30	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 580plus	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x94210a…
03-30 03:29:14	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 520 539	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcc0c13…
03-30 03:29:00	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x15f399…
03-30 03:28:38	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 240plus	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa68df5…
03-30 03:28:30	elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 90 114	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x0553e7…
03-16 01:17:01	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 580plus	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcfc0a0…
03-16 01:16:51	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 420 439	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8bd3e3…
03-16 01:16:39	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 16	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6b3062…
03-16 01:16:17	will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x008622…
03-16 01:16:01	will ethereum dip to 1850 on march 15	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x453823…
03-16 01:15:51	will bitcoin reach 79k on march 15	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc58ed1…
03-12 05:54:53	bitcoin above 58k on march 16	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x340599…
03-12 05:54:41	bitcoin above 58k on march 14	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4826d1…
03-12 05:54:31	bitcoin above 58k on march 13	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf99537…