Fat-Moon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$55

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

275

Trades

332

lifetime

Volume

$3.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-02-03

last 07-11 17:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 98% +$12

Sports

13% 27% -$59

Other

9% 57% -$10

Politics

5% 58% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-11).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No		+16	$8	86¢	$13	+$6	06-04 20:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	6	$46	28	28	+0	No	+$0	03-14 12:46
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	6	$44	26	26	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 14:14
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$36	29	29	+0	No	$0	03-19 22:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$32	18	18	+0	No	$0	03-19 15:33
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$30	16	16	+0	No	$0	02-26 12:49
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$24	12	12	+0	No	$0	03-15 13:58
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$23	22	11	+11	Yes	+$3	02-26 05:39
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$22	11	11	+0	No	$0	03-19 21:14
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$2	06-15 14:45
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-09 21:46
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-17 00:25
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$20	13	13	+0	No	$0	02-24 00:24
bitcoin up or down march 10 2pm et	2	$20	10	10	+0	Down	$0	03-10 18:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	04-22 18:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET	1	$19	19	0	+19	Down	+$0	06-02 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET	1	$18	19	0	+19	Up	+$0	05-17 19:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	05-26 05:50
bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 3pm et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Down	+$0	04-21 19:50
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	$0	02-25 07:10
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 11am et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	04-12 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	1	$18	18	0	+18	Down	+$0	05-20 02:50
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 11pm et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	03-28 03:50
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 3pm et	1	$17	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	03-27 19:55
bitcoin up or down march 30 2026 4pm et	1	$17	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	03-30 20:57
bitcoin up or down april 1 2026 2am et	1	$17	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	04-01 06:50
bitcoin up or down april 13 2026 6pm et	1	$17	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	04-13 22:50
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 12pm et	1	$17	17	0	+17	Down	+$0	04-20 16:50
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 8pm et	1	$17	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	03-25 00:50
bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 1am et	1	$16	16	0	+16	Up	+$0	04-22 05:50
bitcoin up or down march 23 2026 4pm et	1	$16	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	03-23 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 17:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0xa83b47…
07-11 15:50:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x76d061…
07-11 14:36:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6005eb…
07-09 16:45:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?	No	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xec2a83…
07-09 16:24:50	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?	No	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x07c8ba…
07-09 14:28:05	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xa2edf9…
07-09 13:53:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa4c06d…
06-27 01:06:50	mlb phi nym 2026 06 26 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xbb5451…
06-19 08:42:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x0a76db…
06-18 16:14:50	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0x7bf73a…
06-17 17:41:17	mlb mia phi 2026 06 17 spread away 1pt5	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x884ebb…
06-17 03:49:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0x2e5438…
06-15 14:45:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x727924…
06-14 22:45:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	24	26¢	$6	0x0a9f78…
06-13 20:40:10	Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)	Chicago White Sox	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xa01087…
06-13 17:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x83988a…
06-13 11:20:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0xcf34ea…
06-12 02:35:46	nhl las car 2026 06 11 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xcedda8…
06-11 03:12:19	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 14pt5	Knicks	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa4dccf…
06-11 01:01:49	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xb43a44…
06-11 00:48:18	mlb min det 2026 06 10	Detroit Tigers	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x4d6e6c…
06-10 03:18:19	mlb cin sd 2026 06 09	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf6f8a1…
06-10 01:21:51	mlb chc col 2026 06 09	Colorado Rockies	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x88d8c7…
06-10 00:32:18	mlb min det 2026 06 09 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x587f80…
06-09 23:52:31	mlb lad pit 2026 06 09	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe1c145…
06-09 21:46:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xb6f3ff…
06-09 01:46:00	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 1pt5	Knicks	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x43c7b7…
06-09 01:17:36	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 5pt5	Spurs	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xaae807…
06-08 03:26:30	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xeb4de3…
06-07 21:30:25	mlb laa lad 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xbd8772…
06-07 20:45:33	mlb nym sd 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xe24428…
06-07 20:01:43	mlb sea det 2026 06 07	Seattle Mariners	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x3a507a…
06-07 18:09:36	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xc5cd96…
06-06 17:19:42	wnba sea min 2026 06 06 total 159pt5	Over	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x8e6396…
06-06 17:19:40	wnba sea min 2026 06 06 total 159pt5	Over	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xa15c50…
06-05 02:36:21	mlb lad ari 2026 06 04	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x297ac4…
06-05 01:28:36	wnba gsv min 2026 06 04 total 165pt5	Over	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xbda835…
06-05 01:28:36	wnba gsv min 2026 06 04 total 165pt5	Over	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x62a087…
06-05 01:28:34	wnba gsv min 2026 06 04 total 165pt5	Over	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x9c26d1…
06-04 20:35:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x1b0439…
06-04 01:41:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xebb328…
06-02 19:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xc32872…
06-01 22:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x53a026…
06-01 21:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x680ff6…
06-01 10:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x89ff6d…
06-01 01:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x873d90…
05-31 19:07:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xbecc36…
05-31 19:05:54	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe7b2f1…
05-31 19:05:24	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0b3813…
05-30 15:02:24	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x318563…
05-30 03:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9a5b33…
05-29 21:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x338562…
05-29 01:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x14a5b8…
05-28 20:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x127417…
05-28 07:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd3817e…
05-27 11:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdaa414…
05-26 05:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9ec0b9…
05-23 22:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x06a435…
05-22 11:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x1a4ed0…
05-20 02:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xfd59a5…
05-19 16:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xfa882b…
05-19 11:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xedfd58…
05-19 03:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x757b3d…
05-18 21:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x38c7f0…
05-18 11:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x642a30…
05-18 10:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc98448…
05-17 22:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x66b145…
05-17 21:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	15	98¢	$14	0x98a2df…
05-17 19:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0xa5c77c…
05-17 12:11:17	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xae300e…
05-17 02:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2d738a…
05-16 11:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x75bfec…
05-16 10:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x2b94f4…
05-16 09:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8618f4…
05-15 22:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x19cbbb…
05-15 19:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x30cc77…
05-15 14:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0x238c35…
05-15 10:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb6ccd3…
05-15 08:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x853144…
05-15 06:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x408e3f…
05-15 04:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf8a5ac…
05-15 00:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc95c73…
05-14 19:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$11	0xc8e23b…
05-13 21:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbf60fa…
04-29 11:03:46	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x3a10c2…
04-29 10:44:46	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x2e3992…
04-26 04:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb9753f…
04-26 03:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb8a441…
04-25 17:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7ebe74…
04-25 13:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	9	98¢	$8	0xddb9a8…
04-25 11:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeda83f…
04-25 01:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2a8f8a…
04-24 22:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xaa9097…
04-24 16:50:26	bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x0f6ac4…
04-24 10:50:44	bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x91fc08…
04-24 03:50:38	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x57c160…
04-23 09:51:30	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4c0326…
04-23 08:50:22	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x829ec6…
04-23 03:50:58	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x6a3ea1…
04-22 23:50:32	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x97ea6b…