Subdued-Density — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.8%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$4.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 06-21 01:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

73% — —

Politics

18% — —

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

4% 76% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	20	$1.6K	830	830	+0	open	—	05-08 05:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$1.4K	719	719	+0	open	—	04-24 13:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$691	409	409	+0	open	—	04-23 07:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$225	114	114	+0	open	—	04-15 06:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$218	112	112	+0	open	—	04-07 10:19
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	7	$88	60	32	+28	open	—	05-08 10:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$42	22	22	+0	Up	+$2	05-05 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	2	$13	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 07:19
btc updown 5m 1776497700	4	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	04-18 07:40
btc updown 5m 1776496800	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-18 07:25
btc updown 5m 1776497100	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	04-18 07:29
btc updown 5m 1776498300	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-18 07:50
btc updown 5m 1776496500	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-18 07:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	3	$4	11	10	+1	Up	+$2	05-05 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 11:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$3	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 06:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	Up	+$1	05-05 09:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-19 03:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-19 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	06-02 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-19 03:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 09:01
btc updown 5m 1776495900	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	04-18 07:06
btc updown 5m 1776861300	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	04-22 12:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 09:08
btc updown 5m 1780548000	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	06-04 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 02:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 01:17:25	btc updown 5m 1782004500	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xce0874…
06-21 01:06:46	btc updown 5m 1782003900	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfbb754…
06-21 01:03:01	btc updown 5m 1782003600	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x194b4c…
06-04 04:44:42	btc updown 5m 1780548000	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x06e1c2…
06-04 04:43:45	btc updown 5m 1780548000	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xdb4386…
06-02 03:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf9e250…
06-02 03:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3297a6…
06-02 03:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x487745…
06-02 03:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3d2800…
06-02 03:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9b7071…
06-02 03:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x15869a…
06-02 03:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf949aa…
06-02 03:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xcd33dc…
05-19 04:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x1ac021…
05-19 04:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0f5ffa…
05-19 03:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xef7772…
05-19 03:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x335f48…
05-19 03:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x383fd1…
05-19 03:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x443f7b…
05-19 03:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x8f1449…
05-19 03:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd38237…
05-19 03:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xea009e…
05-19 03:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7c3253…
05-19 03:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x54d972…
05-19 03:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xeedf0d…
05-08 10:13:04	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xea6be2…
05-08 07:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xd1fe1d…
05-08 07:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x300e0e…
05-08 07:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x062ff6…
05-08 07:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x8cb92b…
05-08 07:11:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb96a9e…
05-08 06:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x30b860…
05-08 06:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x483f01…
05-08 06:23:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xaeecdf…
05-08 06:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x273b6b…
05-08 06:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xbf1047…
05-08 06:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xac8475…
05-08 05:04:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xade060…
05-08 05:03:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x6be9e9…
05-08 04:59:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcc7cc8…
05-08 04:57:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xca8f92…
05-08 04:53:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xaf1e59…
05-08 04:51:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x02f9ef…
05-08 04:50:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcfbfda…
05-08 04:48:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x759669…
05-08 04:46:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x02b257…
05-08 04:44:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x2c21ae…
05-08 04:33:17	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xb114f5…
05-08 04:11:19	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xf71e7e…
05-08 04:07:23	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x8eaf98…
05-08 04:07:21	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb87ca3…
05-08 03:59:29	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbcb71e…
05-08 03:58:40	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x406c68…
05-08 03:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x777d16…
05-07 18:55:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa2cb01…
05-07 14:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4b7628…
05-07 13:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x6fb9ac…
05-07 13:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x75234a…
05-07 13:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc4145a…
05-07 12:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x6f9a3c…
05-07 12:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3b63b7…
05-07 10:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb66fc7…
05-06 04:27:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$244	0xbeeddf…
05-06 03:56:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$244	0xf2fdf5…
05-06 03:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x6493c2…
05-06 03:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x35e3c2…
05-06 03:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34bc52…
05-06 03:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x712e71…
05-06 02:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x4ae906…
05-06 02:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x09cceb…
05-06 00:31:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	139	98¢	$136	0x55f9b9…
05-06 00:29:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xc5bf66…
05-06 00:29:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xa31a24…
05-06 00:29:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xc96e7a…
05-05 13:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf4fd05…
05-05 12:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x07efb9…
05-05 12:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xef379c…
05-05 12:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x1f741c…
05-05 12:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbc9024…
05-05 12:08:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	210	97¢	$205	0xb8e866…
05-05 12:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x16bca3…
05-05 12:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4a89c2…
05-05 11:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb06882…
05-05 11:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x1cfcae…
05-05 11:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0f42fc…
05-05 11:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x86eb55…
05-05 10:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3ee2c8…
05-05 10:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xefd469…
05-05 10:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x743502…
05-05 10:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x23e97c…
05-05 09:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x11372f…
05-05 09:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x11ec92…
05-05 08:01:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	270	97¢	$263	0x5fb8dd…
05-03 03:10:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	270	98¢	$263	0x73c896…
04-28 10:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x757714…
04-28 10:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5290b0…
04-28 10:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xa2d80d…
04-28 09:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb16729…
04-28 09:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0xc0c25f…
04-28 09:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xcfd925…