Private-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

29.7%

Resolved

Trades

376

lifetime

Volume

$378

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-22 00:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

44% 0% $-0

Politics

30% 0% $-0

Crypto

18% 75% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-1	$-1	86¢	$-1	$-0	06-02 00:14
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+1	$1	97¢	$1	$-0	07-21 00:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strike on somalia by february 21	4	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-18 07:49
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-18 00:56
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-13 04:06
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-11 00:57
will blkpik release an album by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-15 07:18
will mike mccoy be fired by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-06 08:42
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-17 00:43
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-23 08:56
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-28 01:25
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-15 00:55
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-04 00:35
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 00:24
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-02 00:38
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 01:34
will our homeland movement mi haznk finish with the third most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 00:34
will trump post president djt on truth social this week march 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-11 00:35
Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 02:58
bitcoin above 62k on march 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 01:26
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-17 00:54
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 00:28
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 00:54
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-04 00:38
will the emmanuel grgoire list win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 paris municipal election by 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 01:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-20 00:59
will graham platner drop out by july 31 281	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-07 00:38
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-06 00:23
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-21 00:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-08 01:23
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-18 01:30
will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 01:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 00:53:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xb4e4f9…
07-22 00:30:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x74601d…
07-21 00:45:58	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x50d1fa…
07-20 00:49:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6e192a…
07-20 00:36:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbbde11…
07-20 00:31:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x1a7de0…
07-20 00:26:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa13ead…
07-18 00:56:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x98635b…
07-18 00:42:58	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x78392c…
07-18 00:38:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x53f905…
07-18 00:27:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x02dac7…
07-17 00:54:56	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa3566b…
07-17 00:42:25	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x535cf8…
07-17 00:36:14	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xceb7fa…
07-17 00:24:13	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x256903…
07-15 00:49:20	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x436e40…
07-15 00:40:41	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf8eecc…
07-14 01:02:20	Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfce58e…
07-14 00:44:49	Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbc7b75…
07-14 00:39:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 14 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcb1a7c…
07-14 00:23:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 14 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7aee91…
07-13 00:48:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x6feff6…
07-13 00:41:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7dd5b9…
07-11 01:00:07	will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260708011851341	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfd5bd1…
07-11 00:52:56	will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260708011851341	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x108230…
07-11 00:46:38	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1460 by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6377b7…
07-11 00:28:43	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1460 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x56eaaa…
07-10 01:01:37	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xaa4935…
07-10 00:36:34	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x40505e…
07-10 00:32:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x14aa7f…
07-10 00:28:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xad47bb…
07-09 00:53:20	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4bdb93…
07-09 00:42:58	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe17a48…
07-09 00:36:34	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xeed451…
07-09 00:19:56	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f529c…
07-07 00:54:14	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260629202434614	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb89f98…
07-07 00:46:20	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260629202434614	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x262ab4…
07-07 00:38:26	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf9be9c…
07-07 00:22:49	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9d52d1…
07-06 00:23:32	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6f2841…
07-06 00:14:55	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xaaaa8d…
07-04 00:55:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x303898…
07-04 00:50:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5e2246…
07-04 00:46:53	Will Zoë Kravitz be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1e5954…
07-04 00:34:38	Will Zoë Kravitz be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x88b415…
07-03 01:36:58	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7d31b5…
07-03 01:21:08	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x537031…
07-02 00:53:20	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdfca8e…
07-02 00:41:26	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x024bec…
07-02 00:34:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc030ab…
07-02 00:22:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xab4683…
07-01 00:34:19	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x09b0ed…
07-01 00:24:28	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x10fadd…
07-01 00:14:46	will hamad bin isa al khalifa sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950082	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xce0f79…
06-30 23:56:44	will hamad bin isa al khalifa sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950082	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa12c85…
06-30 00:44:05	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204724	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x658ac0…
06-30 00:32:11	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204724	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8216b2…
06-30 00:28:23	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe149ec…
06-30 00:21:43	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x50fa4a…
06-29 00:53:20	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xb72310…
06-29 00:42:17	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb8b4f8…
06-27 00:46:47	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x9b31d0…
06-27 00:35:29	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x300789…
06-27 00:31:53	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xbee2b4…
06-27 00:27:20	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x99cca3…
06-26 01:11:22	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xbf6f30…
06-26 01:05:40	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5cf7d7…
06-25 10:20:26	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x900554…
06-25 10:20:17	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x74ff20…
06-25 10:13:41	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6a0c9c…
06-25 10:13:23	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2deb60…
06-23 00:52:56	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x60e11a…
06-23 00:47:05	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe5be4c…
06-23 00:42:29	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3482aa…
06-23 00:30:55	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x030d1f…
06-22 00:47:26	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x63b30e…
06-22 00:37:59	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa40a37…
06-22 00:33:29	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x0d0c18…
06-22 00:27:43	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x057fe2…
06-21 00:31:41	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4fee70…
06-21 00:20:22	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbc1432…
06-18 00:44:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4da2c7…
06-18 00:38:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x93c8fd…
06-17 00:45:14	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x451dad…
06-17 00:37:28	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0afd2c…
06-17 00:31:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x371650…
06-17 00:22:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc962e4…
06-16 00:27:03	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x44dd65…
06-16 00:16:06	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x282e9f…
06-15 00:55:57	will donald trump have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa4c1fa…
06-13 00:54:22	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x0db90b…
06-13 00:42:55	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5f6bac…
06-13 00:40:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x2cee38…
06-12 00:55:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe33578…
06-12 00:27:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa1f88e…
06-11 00:57:46	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x12e34d…
06-11 00:41:25	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x39d557…
06-10 00:39:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xd84768…
06-10 00:25:30	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3aca67…
06-09 00:23:51	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6c9e71…