Private-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

29.7%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$284

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-11 00:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

44% 0% $-0

Politics

28% 0% $-0

Crypto

21% 75% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-1	$-1	82¢	$-1	$-0	06-02 00:14
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes		-1	$-1	99¢	$-1	$-0	06-03 00:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strike on somalia by february 21	4	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-18 07:49
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-13 04:06
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-11 00:57
will blkpik release an album by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-15 07:18
will mike mccoy be fired by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-06 08:42
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-17 00:43
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-23 08:56
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-28 01:25
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-15 00:55
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-04 00:35
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 00:24
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-02 00:38
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 01:34
will our homeland movement mi haznk finish with the third most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 00:34
will trump post president djt on truth social this week march 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-11 00:35
Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 02:58
bitcoin above 62k on march 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 01:26
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 00:54
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 00:28
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-04 00:38
will the emmanuel grgoire list win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 paris municipal election by 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 01:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-20 00:59
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-21 00:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-08 01:23
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-18 01:30
will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 01:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-03 00:38
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in march 892	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-30 01:04
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-14 00:32
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 03:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 00:57:46	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x12e34d…
06-11 00:41:25	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x39d557…
06-10 00:39:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xd84768…
06-10 00:25:30	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3aca67…
06-09 00:23:51	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6c9e71…
06-09 00:15:54	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x362ee3…
06-08 00:19:48	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 12 2026	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x16c7f0…
06-08 00:13:40	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0b4997…
06-05 00:36:36	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x3d0cee…
06-05 00:35:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x1c0973…
06-05 00:26:57	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa920cd…
06-05 00:19:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x109fcd…
06-03 00:38:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x8c8ee7…
06-03 00:37:31	Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa93965…
06-03 00:20:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x32280d…
06-02 00:16:37	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x678689…
06-02 00:14:21	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x2dd2c7…
06-02 00:02:13	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0438e4…
06-01 00:47:31	Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x4a249e…
06-01 00:45:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x179acb…
06-01 00:26:28	Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9b4171…
06-01 00:20:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xac16ce…
05-30 00:23:57	GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x43558f…
05-30 00:02:34	GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x995f41…
05-29 00:37:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2113e7…
05-29 00:35:57	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x245e74…
05-29 00:22:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9f5441…
05-29 00:18:06	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x528b1e…
05-28 00:55:32	Claude 4.8 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x398d7f…
05-28 00:54:10	US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xe241c2…
05-28 00:26:41	Claude 4.8 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x79ded3…
05-27 00:27:21	Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xc378eb…
05-27 00:08:37	Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xc85848…
05-26 00:40:39	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x86d329…
05-26 00:39:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x20526b…
05-26 00:25:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc4ebf0…
05-26 00:19:04	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe47fca…
05-22 00:39:26	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xfb73a1…
05-22 00:18:04	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x665a5b…
05-21 00:52:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb51344…
05-21 00:29:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1908c4…
05-20 00:37:34	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x61a165…
05-20 00:35:35	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf4acce…
05-20 00:17:32	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x056827…
05-20 00:14:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb7f358…
05-18 00:57:29	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb68f58…
05-18 00:48:51	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2dd66c…
05-16 00:22:53	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4d0122…
05-16 00:21:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x516772…
05-16 00:14:22	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7f2549…
05-16 00:09:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd52cdf…
05-15 00:57:23	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x1ebbd7…
05-15 00:55:04	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x57f218…
05-15 00:34:48	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x60b6b8…
05-15 00:27:17	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x1126ff…
05-14 00:35:05	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x83d059…
05-14 00:32:06	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5b7e93…
05-14 00:23:05	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf4d8dd…
05-14 00:19:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8076a7…
05-13 01:00:19	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x9e379d…
05-13 00:35:33	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x787c9e…
05-12 00:42:08	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5bd36e…
05-12 00:39:13	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x468689…
05-12 00:21:08	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x0cda67…
05-12 00:19:04	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcde01c…
05-08 01:23:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0f6b46…
05-08 01:17:50	Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x266fa3…
05-08 01:12:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x34fdb7…
05-08 00:51:46	Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf2c773…
05-06 00:26:32	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1f2fd6…
05-06 00:14:56	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc339fb…
05-05 00:07:58	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x013313…
04-30 01:43:32	Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x540c11…
04-30 01:40:32	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa41380…
04-30 00:29:26	Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x964777…
04-30 00:23:20	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1c17b7…
04-29 00:38:10	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe9b643…
04-29 00:30:30	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x935349…
04-28 00:43:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x94a590…
04-28 00:41:54	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x486a1b…
04-28 00:35:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x200aa3…
04-28 00:28:48	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb22bc4…
04-27 00:37:26	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x946947…
04-27 00:27:18	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf574aa…
04-27 00:18:52	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x299d86…
04-25 00:57:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x00078e…
04-25 00:54:42	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd7e547…
04-25 00:47:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa06dbd…
04-25 00:33:08	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8dda74…
04-24 00:47:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x4594c4…
04-24 00:46:04	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x421b9a…
04-24 00:37:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x65fc78…
04-24 00:28:10	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x548c37…
04-23 08:56:48	Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x1eb91b…
04-23 08:56:04	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x48dec6…
04-23 08:53:58	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xba76e0…
04-23 08:50:16	Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xd61d2d…
04-22 08:25:28	OpenGradient FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdb075d…
04-22 08:24:08	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x71fe9a…
04-22 08:19:18	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf07330…