Private-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

29.7%

Resolved

Trades

329

lifetime

Volume

$331

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-02 00:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

44% 0% $-0

Politics

30% 0% $-0

Crypto

19% 75% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-1	$-1	90¢	$-1	$-0	06-02 00:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strike on somalia by february 21	4	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-18 07:49
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-13 04:06
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-11 00:57
will blkpik release an album by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-15 07:18
will mike mccoy be fired by february 28	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-06 08:42
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-17 00:43
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-23 08:56
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-28 01:25
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-15 00:55
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-04 00:35
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 00:24
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-02 00:38
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 01:34
will our homeland movement mi haznk finish with the third most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 00:34
will trump post president djt on truth social this week march 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-11 00:35
Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 02:58
bitcoin above 62k on march 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 01:26
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 00:28
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 00:54
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-04 00:38
will the emmanuel grgoire list win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 paris municipal election by 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 01:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-20 00:59
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-21 00:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-08 01:23
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-18 01:30
will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 01:56
will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-16 00:27
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-22 00:47
iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-29 00:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-03 00:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 00:53:20	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdfca8e…
07-02 00:41:26	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x024bec…
07-02 00:34:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc030ab…
07-02 00:22:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xab4683…
07-01 00:34:19	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x09b0ed…
07-01 00:24:28	over 100m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x10fadd…
07-01 00:14:46	will hamad bin isa al khalifa sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950082	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xce0f79…
06-30 23:56:44	will hamad bin isa al khalifa sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950082	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa12c85…
06-30 00:44:05	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204724	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x658ac0…
06-30 00:32:11	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204724	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8216b2…
06-30 00:28:23	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe149ec…
06-30 00:21:43	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x50fa4a…
06-29 00:53:20	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xb72310…
06-29 00:42:17	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb8b4f8…
06-27 00:46:47	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x9b31d0…
06-27 00:35:29	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x300789…
06-27 00:31:53	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xbee2b4…
06-27 00:27:20	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x99cca3…
06-26 01:11:22	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xbf6f30…
06-26 01:05:40	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5cf7d7…
06-25 10:20:26	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x900554…
06-25 10:20:17	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x74ff20…
06-25 10:13:41	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6a0c9c…
06-25 10:13:23	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2deb60…
06-23 00:52:56	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x60e11a…
06-23 00:47:05	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe5be4c…
06-23 00:42:29	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3482aa…
06-23 00:30:55	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x030d1f…
06-22 00:47:26	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x63b30e…
06-22 00:37:59	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa40a37…
06-22 00:33:29	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x0d0c18…
06-22 00:27:43	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x057fe2…
06-21 00:31:41	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4fee70…
06-21 00:20:22	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbc1432…
06-18 00:44:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4da2c7…
06-18 00:38:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x93c8fd…
06-17 00:45:14	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x451dad…
06-17 00:37:28	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0afd2c…
06-17 00:31:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x371650…
06-17 00:22:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc962e4…
06-16 00:27:03	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x44dd65…
06-16 00:16:06	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x282e9f…
06-15 00:55:57	will donald trump have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa4c1fa…
06-13 00:54:22	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x0db90b…
06-13 00:42:55	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5f6bac…
06-13 00:40:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x2cee38…
06-12 00:55:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe33578…
06-12 00:27:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa1f88e…
06-11 00:57:46	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x12e34d…
06-11 00:41:25	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x39d557…
06-10 00:39:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xd84768…
06-10 00:25:30	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3aca67…
06-09 00:23:51	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6c9e71…
06-09 00:15:54	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x362ee3…
06-08 00:19:48	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 12 2026	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x16c7f0…
06-08 00:13:40	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0b4997…
06-05 00:36:36	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x3d0cee…
06-05 00:35:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x1c0973…
06-05 00:26:57	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa920cd…
06-05 00:19:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x109fcd…
06-03 00:38:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x8c8ee7…
06-03 00:37:31	Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa93965…
06-03 00:20:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x32280d…
06-02 00:16:37	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x678689…
06-02 00:14:21	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x2dd2c7…
06-02 00:02:13	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0438e4…
06-01 00:47:31	Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x4a249e…
06-01 00:45:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x179acb…
06-01 00:26:28	Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9b4171…
06-01 00:20:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xac16ce…
05-30 00:23:57	GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x43558f…
05-30 00:02:34	GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x995f41…
05-29 00:37:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2113e7…
05-29 00:35:57	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x245e74…
05-29 00:22:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9f5441…
05-29 00:18:06	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x528b1e…
05-28 00:55:32	Claude 4.8 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x398d7f…
05-28 00:54:10	US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xe241c2…
05-28 00:26:41	Claude 4.8 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x79ded3…
05-27 00:27:21	Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xc378eb…
05-27 00:08:37	Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xc85848…
05-26 00:40:39	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x86d329…
05-26 00:39:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x20526b…
05-26 00:25:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc4ebf0…
05-26 00:19:04	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe47fca…
05-22 00:39:26	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xfb73a1…
05-22 00:18:04	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x665a5b…
05-21 00:52:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb51344…
05-21 00:29:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1908c4…
05-20 00:37:34	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x61a165…
05-20 00:35:35	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf4acce…
05-20 00:17:32	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x056827…
05-20 00:14:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb7f358…
05-18 00:57:29	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb68f58…
05-18 00:48:51	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2dd66c…
05-16 00:22:53	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4d0122…
05-16 00:21:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x516772…
05-16 00:14:22	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7f2549…
05-16 00:09:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd52cdf…
05-15 00:57:23	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x1ebbd7…