Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$420
$36 in 24h
Trades
70
Unique wallets
26
Liquidity
$47
Latest YES mid
43¢
Latest NO mid
57¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-30
last 06-18 01:18
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $55 | $110 | $55 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | — | $11 | $11 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $74 | $29 | +$45 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 13 | $22 | $24 | $2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $50 | $5 | +$45 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $4 | $4 |
| Median | 3 | $11 | $6 | +$5 |
| Below median | 5 | $66 | $40 | +$26 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $9 | $5 | +$4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $5 | $102 | $97 |
| unranked | 8 | $8 | $12 | $4 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +116 | $39 | $39 | 4 | 06-18 01:18 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +106 | $69 | $69 | 4 | 06-18 01:18 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | +50 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-04 06:52 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | No | +38 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +35 | $11 | $11 | 4 | 06-17 22:09 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +30 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x99bc…4f35 | Yes | +28 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +23 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 07:12 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | +10 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 21:27 |
| Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | +10 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-11 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xd24d…c173 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-13 08:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 20:40 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-04 06:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | +5 | $3 | $5 | 3 | 06-16 01:13 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +4 | $-6 | $13 | 2 | 06-04 06:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x034e…37d9 | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 06:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | +3 | $-8 | $19 | 5 | 06-12 04:11 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 01:13 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 01:18:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x822e3d… |
| 06-18 01:18:56 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 19 | 65¢ | $12 | 0x822e3d… |
| 06-17 22:09:46 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x1dd80b… |
| 06-17 22:09:46 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x1dd80b… |
| 06-16 20:40:50 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x3abd27… |
| 06-16 20:40:50 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x3abd27… |
| 06-16 06:55:15 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xa07ad5… |
| 06-16 06:55:15 | (anonymous) 0x034e…37d9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xa07ad5… |
| 06-16 01:13:39 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | SELL | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2e3035… |
| 06-16 01:13:39 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2e3035… |
| 06-13 14:41:09 | (anonymous) 0x82c6…e6c0 | No | SELL | 2 | 70¢ | $1 | 0x900a8b… |
| 06-13 14:41:09 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | BUY | 2 | 70¢ | $1 | 0x900a8b… |
| 06-13 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x2f4e…d6c1 | No | SELL | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xe256c3… |
| 06-13 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | BUY | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xe256c3… |
| 06-13 08:03:48 | (anonymous) 0xd24d…c173 | No | BUY | 10 | 70¢ | $7 | 0x01b8a1… |
| 06-13 08:03:48 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 30¢ | $3 | 0x01b8a1… |
| 06-12 16:32:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 34¢ | $5 | 0x8b9997… |
| 06-12 16:32:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 14 | 66¢ | $9 | 0x8b9997… |
| 06-12 04:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x851546… |
| 06-12 04:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x851546… |
| 06-12 03:34:36 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0xf98f78… |
| 06-12 03:34:36 | Posh-Dollop 0x4722…7db5 | No | SELL | 2 | 67¢ | $1 | 0xf98f78… |
| 06-11 21:36:03 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 5 | 68¢ | $3 | 0x4101fa… |
| 06-11 21:36:03 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x4101fa… |
| 06-11 19:15:45 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 10 | 37¢ | $4 | 0xd67a94… |
| 06-11 19:15:45 | Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | BUY | 10 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xd67a94… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 39¢ | $0 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 68 | 66¢ | $45 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x955396… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x99bc…4f35 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | No | BUY | 7 | 61¢ | $4 | 0x955396… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-08 23:24:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0xfac695… |
| 06-08 23:24:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0xfac695… |
| 06-06 15:53:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x870571… |
| 06-06 15:53:55 | (anonymous) 0x4722…7db5 | No | BUY | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x870571… |
| 06-06 10:23:51 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 10 | 54¢ | $5 | 0x6d84d9… |
| 06-06 10:23:51 | Mealy-Fight 0x23cc…2476 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 46¢ | $5 | 0x6d84d9… |
| 06-04 08:18:37 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x70b435… |
| 06-04 08:18:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x70b435… |
| 06-04 08:13:36 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | Yes | SELL | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x047221… |
| 06-04 08:13:36 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x047221… |
| 06-04 07:45:51 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | Yes | BUY | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xd7ea42… |
| 06-04 07:45:51 | Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | Yes | SELL | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xd7ea42… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | SELL | 60 | 21¢ | $12 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | Yes | SELL | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | BUY | 25 | 21¢ | $5 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 23 | 21¢ | $5 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:00 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | SELL | 70 | 32¢ | $22 | 0x9ca86b… |
| 06-04 07:12:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 32¢ | $22 | 0x9ca86b… |
| 06-04 06:52:49 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 62¢ | $12 | 0xab4639… |
| 06-04 06:52:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0xab4639… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 15 | 63¢ | $9 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:36 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xd2505c… |
| 06-04 06:52:36 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xd2505c… |
| 06-04 06:52:30 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xdece04… |
| 06-04 06:52:30 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xdece04… |
| 06-04 06:52:24 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x1f5c20… |
| 06-04 06:52:24 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x1f5c20… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xd0db95… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xd0db95… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | No | BUY | 31 | 60¢ | $18 | 0xefe2f9… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 30¢ | $0 | 0xefe2f9… |
| 05-30 22:28:39 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 19 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x96eec5… |
| 05-30 22:28:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 19 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x96eec5… |
| 05-30 21:27:36 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 47¢ | $5 | 0xeb82aa… |
| 05-30 21:27:36 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 53¢ | $5 | 0xeb82aa… |