Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$703
$36 in 24h
Trades
105
Unique wallets
38
Liquidity
$47
Latest YES mid
29¢
Latest NO mid
72¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-05 14:33
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $63 | $137 | $74 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $2 | $32 | $30 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $82 | $81 | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $133 | $25 | +$108 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $64 | $5 | +$60 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $0 | $36 | $35 |
| Median | 2 | $25 | — | +$25 |
| Below median | 6 | $63 | $41 | +$23 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $14 | $20 | $7 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $22 | $22 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $7 | $118 | $111 |
| unranked | 12 | $108 | $34 | +$74 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +138 | $47 | $48 | 7 | 07-02 14:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x6eb3…62ec | Yes | +138 | $83 | $83 | 1 | 06-23 20:26 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +131 | $85 | $85 | 7 | 06-25 18:41 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +89 | $25 | $25 | 8 | 07-02 03:48 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +55 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-23 20:26 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | +50 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-04 06:52 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | No | +38 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | +27 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-25 18:41 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +23 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 07:12 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +20 | $-3 | $36 | 4 | 06-25 18:41 |
| Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | +20 | $11 | $19 | 3 | 06-25 18:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +19 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-23 20:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | No | +18 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-25 18:41 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | +10 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 21:27 |
| Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | +10 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Darling-Demand 0x6bdb…4496 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-02 03:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xd24d…c173 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-13 08:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 20:40 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-04 06:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | +5 | $3 | $5 | 3 | 06-16 01:13 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +4 | $-6 | $13 | 2 | 06-04 06:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | +3 | $-8 | $19 | 5 | 06-12 04:11 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 01:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +1 | $-0 | $4 | 2 | 07-02 17:39 |
| Guilty-Dew 0x381f…bc99 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-05 14:33 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 14:33:35 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 24¢ | $0 | 0xaaa7b3… |
| 07-05 14:33:35 | Guilty-Dew 0x381f…bc99 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 24¢ | $0 | 0xaaa7b3… |
| 07-02 17:39:31 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 35¢ | $2 | 0xc47b65… |
| 07-02 17:39:31 | Plaintive-Ping 0xd44c…28c5 | No | SELL | 6 | 65¢ | $4 | 0xc47b65… |
| 07-02 14:16:02 | Plaintive-Ping 0xd44c…28c5 | No | BUY | 6 | 73¢ | $4 | 0xed5601… |
| 07-02 14:16:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xed5601… |
| 07-02 14:16:02 | Tidy-Octopus-Escape 0x9c11…847b | No | SELL | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0xed5601… |
| 07-02 14:03:50 | Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | SELL | 6 | 74¢ | $4 | 0x691b92… |
| 07-02 14:03:50 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 26¢ | $0 | 0x691b92… |
| 07-02 14:03:50 | Tidy-Octopus-Escape 0x9c11…847b | No | BUY | 7 | 74¢ | $5 | 0x691b92… |
| 07-02 03:48:11 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xefb83f… |
| 07-02 03:48:11 | Darling-Demand 0x6bdb…4496 | No | BUY | 10 | 68¢ | $7 | 0xefb83f… |
| 06-25 19:08:56 | (anonymous) 0xf7f1…f2ae | Yes | SELL | 40 | 22¢ | $9 | 0x2ded7d… |
| 06-25 19:08:56 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x2ded7d… |
| 06-25 18:42:49 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | BUY | 20 | 55¢ | $11 | 0xd69858… |
| 06-25 18:42:49 | (anonymous) 0xf7f1…f2ae | Yes | BUY | 20 | 45¢ | $9 | 0xd69858… |
| 06-25 18:41:28 | (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | No | BUY | 18 | 60¢ | $11 | 0xc22f8e… |
| 06-25 18:41:28 | (anonymous) 0xf7f1…f2ae | Yes | BUY | 18 | 40¢ | $7 | 0xc22f8e… |
| 06-25 18:41:26 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 2 | 60¢ | $1 | 0x996aa1… |
| 06-25 18:41:26 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x64e76f… |
| 06-25 18:41:26 | (anonymous) 0xf7f1…f2ae | Yes | BUY | 2 | 40¢ | $1 | 0x996aa1… |
| 06-25 18:41:26 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | BUY | 27 | 71¢ | $19 | 0x64e76f… |
| 06-25 18:41:26 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 29¢ | $2 | 0x64e76f… |
| 06-24 02:13:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 36¢ | $5 | 0x9083c3… |
| 06-24 02:13:34 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 14 | 64¢ | $9 | 0x9083c3… |
| 06-23 23:42:37 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 9 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xead67f… |
| 06-23 23:42:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xead67f… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 30 | 66¢ | $20 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 19 | 59¢ | $11 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | (anonymous) 0x6eb3…62ec | Yes | BUY | 138 | 60¢ | $83 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | (anonymous) 0x99bc…4f35 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 40¢ | $11 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 55 | 27¢ | $15 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-23 20:26:52 | Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | BUY | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xb62b98… |
| 06-22 13:33:32 | (anonymous) 0x034e…37d9 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0xdbc603… |
| 06-22 13:33:32 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0xdbc603… |
| 06-18 01:18:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x822e3d… |
| 06-18 01:18:56 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 19 | 65¢ | $12 | 0x822e3d… |
| 06-17 22:09:46 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x1dd80b… |
| 06-17 22:09:46 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x1dd80b… |
| 06-16 20:40:50 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x3abd27… |
| 06-16 20:40:50 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x3abd27… |
| 06-16 06:55:15 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xa07ad5… |
| 06-16 06:55:15 | (anonymous) 0x034e…37d9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xa07ad5… |
| 06-16 01:13:39 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2e3035… |
| 06-16 01:13:39 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | SELL | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2e3035… |
| 06-13 14:41:09 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | BUY | 2 | 70¢ | $1 | 0x900a8b… |
| 06-13 14:41:09 | (anonymous) 0x82c6…e6c0 | No | SELL | 2 | 70¢ | $1 | 0x900a8b… |
| 06-13 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | No | BUY | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xe256c3… |
| 06-13 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x2f4e…d6c1 | No | SELL | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xe256c3… |
| 06-13 08:03:48 | (anonymous) 0xd24d…c173 | No | BUY | 10 | 70¢ | $7 | 0x01b8a1… |
| 06-13 08:03:48 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 30¢ | $3 | 0x01b8a1… |
| 06-12 16:32:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 34¢ | $5 | 0x8b9997… |
| 06-12 16:32:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 14 | 66¢ | $9 | 0x8b9997… |
| 06-12 04:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x851546… |
| 06-12 04:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x851546… |
| 06-12 03:34:36 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0xf98f78… |
| 06-12 03:34:36 | Posh-Dollop 0x4722…7db5 | No | SELL | 2 | 67¢ | $1 | 0xf98f78… |
| 06-11 21:36:03 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x4101fa… |
| 06-11 21:36:03 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 5 | 68¢ | $3 | 0x4101fa… |
| 06-11 19:15:45 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 10 | 37¢ | $4 | 0xd67a94… |
| 06-11 19:15:45 | Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | BUY | 10 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xd67a94… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 39¢ | $0 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x99bc…4f35 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 68 | 66¢ | $45 | 0x5e760e… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x955396… |
| 06-11 19:15:43 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | No | BUY | 7 | 61¢ | $4 | 0x955396… |
| 06-08 23:24:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0xfac695… |
| 06-08 23:24:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0xfac695… |
| 06-06 15:53:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x870571… |
| 06-06 15:53:55 | (anonymous) 0x4722…7db5 | No | BUY | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x870571… |
| 06-06 10:23:51 | Mealy-Fight 0x23cc…2476 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 46¢ | $5 | 0x6d84d9… |
| 06-06 10:23:51 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | SELL | 10 | 54¢ | $5 | 0x6d84d9… |
| 06-04 08:18:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x70b435… |
| 06-04 08:18:37 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 39¢ | $3 | 0x70b435… |
| 06-04 08:13:36 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | Yes | SELL | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x047221… |
| 06-04 08:13:36 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x047221… |
| 06-04 07:45:51 | Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | Yes | SELL | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xd7ea42… |
| 06-04 07:45:51 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | Yes | BUY | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xd7ea42… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 23 | 21¢ | $5 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | SELL | 60 | 21¢ | $12 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | BUY | 25 | 21¢ | $5 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:06 | Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | Yes | SELL | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0xc2ff3e… |
| 06-04 07:12:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 32¢ | $22 | 0x9ca86b… |
| 06-04 07:12:00 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | SELL | 70 | 32¢ | $22 | 0x9ca86b… |
| 06-04 06:52:49 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 62¢ | $12 | 0xab4639… |
| 06-04 06:52:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0xab4639… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:42 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 15 | 63¢ | $9 | 0xfdc79e… |
| 06-04 06:52:36 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xd2505c… |
| 06-04 06:52:36 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xd2505c… |
| 06-04 06:52:30 | Rosy-Suppression 0x85ee…a64a | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xdece04… |
| 06-04 06:52:30 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xdece04… |
| 06-04 06:52:24 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x1f5c20… |
| 06-04 06:52:24 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x1f5c20… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 30¢ | $0 | 0xefe2f9… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Beautiful-Message 0x6328…1bf3 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xd0db95… |
| 06-04 06:52:15 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xd0db95… |