Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$23,199
$36 in 24h
Trades
589
Unique wallets
174
Liquidity
$47
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-23 17:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-3.9¢
(top1%: 2% YES on $153
vs crowd: 6% YES on $18.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 23 | $142 | $9.9K | $9.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 27 | $71 | $1.4K | $1.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 34 | $148 | $2.6K | $2.4K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 90 | $658 | $3.2K | $2.5K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $3 | $150 | $148 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $83 | $340 | $257 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 14 | $52 | $937 | $885 |
| Median | 40 | $47 | $579 | $532 |
| Below median | 18 | $71 | $161 | $90 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $30 | $28 | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $52 | $500 | $447 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 9 | $12 | $8.4K | $8.4K |
| unranked | 67 | $669 | $6.0K | $5.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thin-Tiara 0xc757…ccfc | No | +7,292 | $7,285 | $7,285 | 1 | 07-23 13:58 |
| Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | +2,411 | $2 | $4 | 6 | 07-23 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xec4d…be21 | Yes | +2,221 | $311 | $311 | 12 | 07-13 15:11 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +1,475 | $20 | $42 | 15 | 07-23 13:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x7a81…c782 | Yes | +1,219 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 07-22 11:14 |
| Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | +880 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-23 14:02 |
| Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | +737 | $0 | $2 | 6 | 07-23 14:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | +617 | $8 | $14 | 17 | 07-23 13:26 |
| Haunting-Pinkie 0x8adf…48cd | No | +509 | $501 | $501 | 1 | 07-22 00:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +432 | $415 | $415 | 6 | 07-23 13:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x32fd…5c8b | No | +418 | $393 | $896 | 4 | 07-23 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xe866…90ca | No | +408 | $400 | $400 | 1 | 07-13 16:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x6eb3…62ec | Yes | +336 | $141 | $141 | 2 | 07-12 23:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xc7db…81c1 | No | +323 | $314 | $910 | 2 | 07-23 13:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xc3da…1dd8 | No | +308 | $286 | $286 | 7 | 07-13 15:49 |
| Unrealistic-Ingredient 0xb50c…5463 | No | +289 | $248 | $248 | 4 | 07-13 15:11 |
| Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | No | +265 | $259 | $259 | 6 | 07-16 03:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x51a9…57bb | No | +227 | $189 | $189 | 2 | 07-13 08:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x6cde…6c82 | Yes | +226 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-22 14:51 |
| Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | No | +213 | $202 | $202 | 1 | 07-23 13:16 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +209 | $42 | $42 | 14 | 07-13 15:34 |
| Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | +200 | $170 | $170 | 3 | 07-13 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | +180 | $26 | $26 | 4 | 07-13 15:16 |
| Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | Yes | +166 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 07-18 22:48 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +162 | $155 | $374 | 6 | 07-23 14:46 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +162 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-22 12:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | +162 | $153 | $153 | 4 | 07-22 20:32 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +158 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-23 13:26 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +150 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-23 13:44 |
| Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | +150 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 14:19 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +138 | $47 | $48 | 7 | 07-02 14:16 |
| Drafty-Fantasy 0xd174…aeb2 | No | +129 | $114 | $114 | 2 | 07-13 15:22 |
| Scarce-Footnote 0x714f…66d5 | Yes | +128 | $24 | $24 | 2 | 07-12 13:57 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +118 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-23 13:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xa108…abd3 | No | +113 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 07-12 05:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x3784…1f34 | Yes | +111 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-22 04:32 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +110 | $2 | $15 | 24 | 07-23 13:44 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +105 | $63 | $63 | 2 | 07-23 13:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x87cb…643a | Yes | +103 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-14 08:14 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:58 |
| Expensive-Struggle 0xc684…2228 | No | +98 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 07-12 23:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | No | +94 | $84 | $84 | 3 | 07-22 11:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | Yes | +89 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-13 15:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b7a…86cf | No | +85 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 07-13 16:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | +85 | $2 | $2 | 5 | 07-22 00:26 |
| Everlasting-Emerald 0x84d2…98c0 | No | +81 | $80 | $80 | 2 | 07-14 00:21 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +81 | $79 | $79 | 1 | 07-16 19:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | Yes | +80 | $12 | $12 | 5 | 07-13 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xd87d…ae50 | No | +74 | $62 | $62 | 1 | 07-12 02:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x7da4…9f61 | No | +73 | $63 | $63 | 1 | 07-13 14:53 |
| Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | Yes | +65 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 13:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xd351…b2d9 | No | +62 | $61 | $61 | 2 | 07-14 08:14 |
| Taut-Sleet 0x45e1…5934 | No | +51 | $49 | $49 | 6 | 07-23 13:11 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +51 | $-2 | $15 | 11 | 07-23 13:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x7837…bf3e | No | +51 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 07-23 13:11 |
| Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | +50 | $37 | $135 | 4 | 07-13 21:45 |
| Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:49 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | +50 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-04 06:52 |
| Unnatural-Energy 0xac6a…2ed3 | No | +49 | $42 | $42 | 2 | 07-13 10:17 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +40 | $-18 | $78 | 25 | 07-23 13:45 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 17:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x32fd…5c8b | No | SELL | 250 | 100¢ | $250 | 0xb0f47a… |
| 07-23 17:35:06 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | SELL | 250 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb0f47a… |
| 07-23 15:41:37 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | SELL | 321 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa1aba4… |
| 07-23 15:41:37 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | SELL | 321 | 100¢ | $321 | 0xa1aba4… |
| 07-23 14:46:04 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | SELL | 22 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc62225… |
| 07-23 14:46:04 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 22 | 100¢ | $22 | 0xc62225… |
| 07-23 14:19:33 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x32de34… |
| 07-23 14:19:33 | (anonymous) 0x978b…2add | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x32de34… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | Unfortunate-Negligee 0x5822…8774 | No | SELL | 141 | 100¢ | $141 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:19:00 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | SELL | 324 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x770ed9… |
| 07-23 14:06:58 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb09900… |
| 07-23 14:06:58 | Legitimate-Cause 0xef71…4d7b | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xb09900… |
| 07-23 14:02:07 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf634a9… |
| 07-23 14:02:07 | (anonymous) 0x141a…c649 | No | SELL | 190 | 100¢ | $190 | 0xf634a9… |
| 07-23 14:02:07 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 120 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf634a9… |
| 07-23 14:02:07 | Unfortunate-Negligee 0x5822…8774 | No | BUY | 27 | 100¢ | $27 | 0xf634a9… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | BUY | 737 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Thin-Tiara 0xc757…ccfc | No | BUY | 7,292 | 100¢ | $7,285 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Cloudy-Orchard 0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | BUY | 3,333 | 0¢ | $3 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 1,111 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:58:22 | (anonymous) 0x0459…1572 | No | SELL | 910 | 100¢ | $910 | 0x4eb478… |
| 07-23 13:55:40 | (anonymous) 0xc7db…81c1 | No | SELL | 298 | 100¢ | $298 | 0xd4df0c… |
| 07-23 13:55:40 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | SELL | 220 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd4df0c… |
| 07-23 13:55:40 | Unfortunate-Negligee 0x5822…8774 | No | BUY | 78 | 100¢ | $78 | 0xd4df0c… |
| 07-23 13:53:09 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5a30c2… |
| 07-23 13:53:09 | (anonymous) 0xaed4…68b8 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5a30c2… |
| 07-23 13:49:51 | (anonymous) 0xfae6…4f84 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xccf4e6… |
| 07-23 13:49:51 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xccf4e6… |
| 07-23 13:49:15 | Musty-Lag 0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | BUY | 170 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x86ea4c… |
| 07-23 13:49:15 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | SELL | 220 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x86ea4c… |
| 07-23 13:49:15 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x86ea4c… |
| 07-23 13:48:15 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | BUY | 220 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x2d1872… |
| 07-23 13:48:15 | (anonymous) 0x9b24…0ee1 | Yes | SELL | 1,164 | 1¢ | $16 | 0x2d1872… |
| 07-23 13:48:15 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | Yes | BUY | 65 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x2d1872… |
| 07-23 13:48:15 | (anonymous) 0xbd5f…38b9 | No | SELL | 879 | 99¢ | $865 | 0x2d1872… |
| 07-23 13:48:03 | (anonymous) 0xbd5f…38b9 | No | SELL | 621 | 98¢ | $612 | 0x519965… |
| 07-23 13:48:03 | (anonymous) 0xc7db…81c1 | No | BUY | 621 | 98¢ | $612 | 0x519965… |
| 07-23 13:45:00 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 40 | 98¢ | $39 | 0xadf613… |
| 07-23 13:45:00 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xadf613… |
| 07-23 13:44:55 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x306f53… |
| 07-23 13:44:55 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x306f53… |
| 07-23 13:44:52 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0xbbd106… |
| 07-23 13:44:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbbd106… |
| 07-23 13:44:49 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0xc4b211… |
| 07-23 13:44:49 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc4b211… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | (anonymous) 0x0459…1572 | No | BUY | 910 | 98¢ | $895 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 617 | 2¢ | $10 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 158 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:26:54 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 48 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x44f31d… |
| 07-23 13:23:13 | (anonymous) 0x149e…594d | Yes | BUY | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x5e4f40… |
| 07-23 13:23:13 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 38 | 95¢ | $36 | 0x5e4f40… |
| 07-23 13:17:46 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 133 | 95¢ | $126 | 0xf2db96… |
| 07-23 13:17:46 | Disguised-Pajamas 0x4262…abaa | No | BUY | 133 | 95¢ | $126 | 0xf2db96… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $14 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | BUY | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 111 | 95¢ | $105 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | BUY | 133 | 95¢ | $126 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | (anonymous) 0x9b24…0ee1 | Yes | BUY | 557 | 5¢ | $28 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:16:55 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | No | BUY | 213 | 95¢ | $202 | 0x7b9095… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 51 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | BUY | 18 | 96¢ | $17 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | (anonymous) 0x9b24…0ee1 | Yes | BUY | 219 | 4¢ | $8 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | (anonymous) 0x7837…bf3e | No | BUY | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | Taut-Sleet 0x45e1…5934 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 13:11:54 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa751ed… |
| 07-23 11:22:52 | (anonymous) 0x445e…2328 | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x50d688… |
| 07-23 11:22:52 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x50d688… |
| 07-23 11:22:52 | Taut-Sleet 0x45e1…5934 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x50d688… |
| 07-23 10:02:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x27f858… |
| 07-23 10:02:39 | Annual-Genetics 0x6e80…e98b | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x27f858… |
| 07-23 10:02:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8d032a… |
| 07-23 10:02:31 | Sugary-Donation 0x8dc0…9047 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x8d032a… |
| 07-23 10:02:18 | Fortunate-Enigma 0x3112…568a | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x7f8354… |
| 07-23 10:02:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7f8354… |
| 07-23 10:02:12 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7a8267… |
| 07-23 10:02:12 | Elaborate-Cookie 0x1e28…1807 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x7a8267… |
| 07-23 10:02:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcd1ddd… |
| 07-23 10:02:01 | Wilted-Fourths 0xf6f1…e695 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xcd1ddd… |
| 07-23 10:01:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb25144… |
| 07-23 10:01:58 | Vague-Fort 0x94fd…413e | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xb25144… |
| 07-23 10:01:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8376c4… |
| 07-23 10:01:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5a41a9… |
| 07-23 10:01:51 | Acclaimed-Refusal 0xf866…8e9e | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5a41a9… |
| 07-23 10:01:51 | Original-Nun 0x3c02…2ef8 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x8376c4… |
| 07-23 10:01:40 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2f2add… |
| 07-23 10:01:40 | Electric-Screw 0x12ea…3818 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x2f2add… |
| 07-23 10:01:37 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1eb283… |
| 07-23 10:01:37 | Embellished-Chimpanzee 0x1183…0824 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x1eb283… |