Acclaimed-Refusal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

33.7%

Resolved

Trades

345

lifetime

Volume

$340

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 07-03 10:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

36% — —

Politics

30% 0% $-0

Crypto

27% 100% +$0

Tech

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-1	$-1	83¢	$-1	$-0	06-02 07:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	10	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-14 06:11
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-18 07:30
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-23 06:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-02 07:12
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-24 10:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-01 08:55
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	06-29 09:20
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 08:47
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-26 10:09
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-14 07:36
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.4B?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-20 08:06
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-04 08:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 09:33
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-22 09:46
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 07:07
will the percentage change in the sp 500 in q1 2026 be between 2 and 3	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 06:51
bitcoin above 64k on march 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 08:42
highest temperature in toronto on april 3 2026 8c	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 07:10
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 06:36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-25 08:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-15 07:51
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-28 08:17
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 04:35
bitcoin above 72k on april 16	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-16 09:31
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-26 07:30
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-09 04:43
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 06:05
will oman strike iran by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 06:06
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-11 09:03
bitcoin above 70k on march 16	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 06:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 08:24:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8a6009…
07-04 08:13:11	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe975f0…
07-03 10:23:59	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x843cef…
07-03 10:08:31	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4ea845…
07-02 09:11:04	Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6163ef…
07-02 09:01:01	Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8f8d09…
07-02 08:54:47	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4dbbd2…
07-02 08:40:59	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xbdbca1…
07-02 08:36:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb6f76a…
07-02 08:24:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x95fdc7…
07-01 08:15:40	will marco rubio sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950069	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x77c0c6…
07-01 08:01:16	will marco rubio sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950069	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5f61ad…
07-01 07:53:41	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x7e3c42…
07-01 07:50:35	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x939ba2…
06-30 08:31:01	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x81d0d7…
06-30 08:22:31	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5b988f…
06-30 08:18:31	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xbbcf45…
06-30 08:05:08	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa4552f…
06-29 09:23:44	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x05b7ef…
06-29 09:20:55	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x59b6fd…
06-29 09:20:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x41a78f…
06-29 09:09:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x40f8f7…
06-27 09:17:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x4824ae…
06-27 08:57:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x254c5b…
06-27 08:56:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x99ad30…
06-27 08:52:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6a6127…
06-26 10:09:31	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x788573…
06-26 10:00:07	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc2de99…
06-25 08:51:11	will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x2db30f…
06-25 08:42:23	will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6b3264…
06-25 08:34:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4f02cf…
06-25 08:26:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x46d8c5…
06-24 10:09:47	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x289451…
06-24 10:03:28	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0a5e22…
06-24 10:02:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x91aca3…
06-24 09:57:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0c9db0…
06-23 09:23:14	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xeecede…
06-23 08:56:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x30afcb…
06-23 08:41:16	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xbdc2d8…
06-23 08:13:37	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf0aa4e…
06-22 09:34:40	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x8df6d6…
06-22 09:23:47	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x538cef…
06-21 09:14:14	will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x99bddd…
06-21 09:04:52	will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x443c1e…
06-18 09:21:38	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x91e6f3…
06-18 09:05:29	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x60ad7b…
06-17 09:10:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf4618f…
06-17 08:39:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9c4e67…
06-16 09:09:34	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x5fcff1…
06-16 09:08:16	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf7f49e…
06-16 08:57:07	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2efb32…
06-16 08:49:03	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcfa34b…
06-15 08:16:55	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xbf4173…
06-15 07:57:27	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3913c6…
06-15 07:51:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0219c7…
06-13 09:35:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xd75fb0…
06-13 09:27:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x092ff8…
06-12 09:40:21	jonathan tah 20260609173253872	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9a3a22…
06-12 09:28:52	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x9dfa93…
06-12 09:06:03	jonathan tah 20260609173253872	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x054e5b…
06-12 09:01:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x952c4f…
06-11 09:46:30	will bret johnsen be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212483	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe6e07b…
06-11 09:33:51	will bret johnsen be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212483	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb31347…
06-11 09:21:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x2b4dd5…
06-11 09:20:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xe31ed2…
06-09 06:29:52	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3070da…
06-09 06:13:34	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf468b9…
06-09 06:09:12	will jd vance attend the g7 summit	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0125be…
06-09 04:33:27	will bitcoin dip to 62k june 8 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x466d9b…
06-09 04:26:27	will jd vance attend the g7 summit	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2019f5…
06-08 06:10:15	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x03d786…
06-08 06:09:31	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 8 2026	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x82e3f9…
06-08 04:30:07	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x361229…
06-08 04:26:45	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xbaedd8…
06-06 08:54:49	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x869eec…
06-06 08:37:12	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4e10d6…
06-05 08:11:37	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x70b3b6…
06-05 08:08:04	will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xba9a9b…
06-05 07:46:42	will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x09f45c…
06-05 07:41:28	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe8092e…
06-04 08:46:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x88ebd2…
06-04 08:42:39	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x71adc4…
06-04 08:17:45	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7cabae…
06-04 08:11:45	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4f06b7…
06-03 08:32:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe3b85d…
06-03 08:12:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x364f5c…
06-02 07:49:12	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x306f1d…
06-02 07:48:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4d7345…
06-01 08:55:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xbcf9d5…
06-01 08:54:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe88c11…
06-01 08:41:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x5b457b…
06-01 08:37:47	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8ccfa2…
05-30 08:36:29	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3ef27f…
05-30 08:34:34	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3a08d6…
05-30 08:20:29	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x395705…
05-30 08:14:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5ac353…
05-29 07:16:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x517bac…
05-29 07:14:38	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb244ba…
05-29 07:03:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x45344f…
05-29 06:55:00	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8c99a2…