Young-Postage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$6.19K

Hit rate

82.2%

Resolved

Trades

589

lifetime

Volume

$232.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$395

Open exposure

$23.4K

12 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-31 17:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

58% 64% +$16,528

Politics

31% 100% +$13,972

Crypto

6% 50% +$24,295

Sports

5% 0% -$12,660

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+7,500	$6,225	84¢	$6.3K	+$37	08-25 16:27
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	No	+5,000	$4,875	99¢	$5.0K	+$80	10-19 07:03
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+4,222	$2,777	97¢	$4.1K	+$1,304	10-20 22:23
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+5,607	$3,100	52¢	$2.9K	-$157	10-31 17:10
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+8,838	$5,442	16¢	$1.4K	-$4,072	08-23 09:38
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+2,827	$1,237	44¢	$1.2K	+$7	10-17 07:35
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+7,290	$4,507	16¢	$1.1K	-$3,377	08-23 19:31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+1,625	$809	44¢	$723	-$85	10-17 07:36
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+608	$262	46¢	$280	+$18	10-17 07:41
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	+200	$52	93¢	$186	+$134	06-28 08:24
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+378	$160	46¢	$172	+$12	10-17 07:40
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+241	$132	16¢	$37	-$94	08-23 19:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	5	$21.7K	14,222	10,000	+4,222	open	—	10-20 22:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	33	$13.6K	38,159	0	+38,159	No	+$24,572	06-03 07:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	14	$12.8K	13,873	0	+13,873	No	+$1,101	06-11 14:27
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	27	$12.8K	13,243	8,252	+4,991	Yes	+$416	07-01 20:24
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$9.2K	5,032	5,032	+0	No	+$775	06-22 17:59
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	8	$9.1K	11,118	1,000	+10,118	No	+$2,808	06-28 06:52
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	1	$8.6K	9,415	0	+9,415	Yes	+$847	10-14 14:50
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	31	$7.8K	22,097	3,023	+19,074	No	+$13,729	10-28 16:05
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	19	$7.6K	5,525	3,182	+2,343	Yes	+$237	07-18 16:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	21	$7.2K	7,968	7,968	+0	Yes	-$2,124	04-17 20:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$6.4K	7,083	0	+7,083	No	+$658	05-29 10:03
will trump post ufc on truth social this week 20260622154014267	5	$6.4K	61,283	1,352	+59,931	Yes	-$6,419	07-02 00:29
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	19	$6.3K	7,277	7,277	+0	Yes	-$6,241	07-07 21:19
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	61	$6.2K	15,650	0	+15,650	No	+$9,408	06-28 10:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	67	$6.2K	7,500	0	+7,500	open	—	08-25 16:27
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	17	$6.1K	7,400	0	+7,400	No	+$1,258	04-29 14:26
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	2	$6.0K	6,875	0	+6,875	No	+$825	05-17 07:39
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	3	$5.7K	3,385	3,385	+0	No	+$647	04-20 17:14
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.7K	5,853	0	+5,853	Yes	+$191	06-29 12:19
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	42	$5.4K	8,838	0	+8,838	open	—	08-23 09:38
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	3	$5.0K	5,240	0	+5,240	No	+$267	07-23 16:20
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	1	$4.9K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	10-19 07:03
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	12	$4.5K	7,290	0	+7,290	open	—	08-23 19:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$4.5K	6,187	0	+6,187	Yes	+$1,736	04-20 18:28
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	21	$4.1K	3,647	3,647	+0	Yes	-$2,557	10-19 13:29
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	1	$3.1K	5,607	0	+5,607	open	—	10-31 17:10
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$2.8K	2,856	0	+2,856	Yes	+$34	07-20 19:54
Paris curfew by October 24?	4	$2.2K	1,892	996	+896	Yes	-$1,378	10-19 12:35
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	1	$2.1K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$900	04-03 10:46
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	7	$2.1K	2,156	0	+2,156	No	+$99	10-15 05:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:10:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,607	55¢	$3,100	0x63c0c0…
10-31 14:03:19	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	278	70¢	$195	0x9a0626…
10-31 13:53:55	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x75c25e…
10-31 13:53:10	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x227d16…
10-31 13:52:24	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	436	85¢	$369	0x3aa26e…
10-31 13:52:18	Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	1,175	87¢	$1,026	0x8e5dfd…
10-28 16:05:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	705	88¢	$622	0xfa5552…
10-22 18:22:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	522	0¢	$2	0x03bb59…
10-20 22:23:36	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x1b4e1a…
10-20 22:23:15	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xd37a5b…
10-20 22:22:44	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	4,200	89¢	$3,737	0xa50aea…
10-20 10:45:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,318	26¢	$609	0xee6b0d…
10-19 13:29:41	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	250	18¢	$45	0xc54565…
10-19 13:28:39	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	359	18¢	$65	0xe25bd7…
10-19 13:27:42	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	41	21¢	$9	0xbbb977…
10-19 13:26:35	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	39	21¢	$8	0xb00bfc…
10-19 13:26:30	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	557	22¢	$122	0xc34c85…
10-19 13:26:30	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	113	21¢	$24	0x3ea181…
10-19 13:21:08	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	500	22¢	$110	0x6037c3…
10-19 13:16:23	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0x1d350c…
10-19 13:13:44	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xb56c3e…
10-19 13:11:09	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	160	18¢	$29	0x69d2ae…
10-19 13:02:26	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	490	19¢	$93	0xfe4504…
10-19 12:46:48	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0xd26944…
10-19 12:40:21	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	52	18¢	$10	0xb12d4e…
10-19 12:38:20	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x8214a9…
10-19 12:36:23	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	25	31¢	$8	0x5a95dd…
10-19 12:35:39	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	22	31¢	$7	0xddc05e…
10-19 12:35:39	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	347	31¢	$108	0x6e34fa…
10-19 12:35:18	Paris curfew by October 24?	No	SELL	996	39¢	$388	0xaa540c…
10-19 12:33:50	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	283	22¢	$62	0xc8ec60…
10-19 12:33:18	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	167	22¢	$37	0x567b48…
10-19 12:32:20	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	380	15¢	$57	0x002746…
10-19 12:31:32	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xcca01c…
10-19 12:26:23	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	89	31¢	$27	0x29a0a2…
10-19 12:26:08	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x5c1953…
10-19 12:25:51	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xc65c6c…
10-19 12:25:38	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	273	26¢	$71	0x508460…
10-19 11:53:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	439	31¢	$136	0xcaeb3a…
10-19 10:44:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	56	31¢	$17	0xfb5fed…
10-19 10:41:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xe927f9…
10-19 09:44:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	68¢	$150	0x4a41c0…
10-19 09:44:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1,059	26¢	$277	0xec3a69…
10-19 09:43:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x399868…
10-19 07:03:15	France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,875	0x01befd…
10-19 06:51:42	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	3,324	92¢	$3,058	0x71a48a…
10-19 06:48:11	Paris curfew by October 24?	No	BUY	1,498	94¢	$1,408	0xb896fa…
10-18 22:56:32	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,025	82¢	$840	0xa9e508…
10-18 22:37:47	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	273	75¢	$205	0x919979…
10-18 22:33:56	Paris curfew by October 24?	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0xd2d22a…
10-18 22:18:05	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	243	96¢	$233	0xe4e981…
10-18 22:17:30	Paris curfew by October 24?	No	BUY	283	91¢	$258	0xb64264…
10-18 22:17:23	Paris curfew by October 31?	No	BUY	596	89¢	$530	0xf0939c…
10-18 22:15:47	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	385	86¢	$331	0x3bd2a2…
10-18 22:15:35	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	323	90¢	$291	0xe4e8b8…
10-17 07:41:03	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x412595…
10-17 07:40:26	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	348	42¢	$148	0xc6a6bf…
10-17 07:36:29	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x9e725e…
10-17 07:35:48	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	224	41¢	$92	0x5bce21…
10-17 07:34:23	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xb65ee3…
10-17 07:32:41	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	40¢	$56	0x806e87…
10-16 18:09:35	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 18 2026	No	BUY	387	99¢	$383	0x86b2bc…
10-16 14:59:07	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	10,000	94¢	$9,450	0xf97384…
10-15 05:47:31	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x1d9e09…
10-14 18:34:40	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	No	BUY	1,173	98¢	$1,149	0x9f2f64…
10-14 18:12:13	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x694a2e…
10-14 18:11:48	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf4eae7…
10-14 18:10:12	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	101	53¢	$54	0xdb91a5…
10-14 18:09:54	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x08f1c8…
10-14 18:09:48	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x9ce3a2…
10-14 18:08:43	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	36	78¢	$28	0xafc460…
10-14 18:08:39	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	263	55¢	$145	0x2830e1…
10-14 18:08:21	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	192	51¢	$98	0xbe3f0b…
10-14 18:02:52	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 14 2026	No	BUY	509	95¢	$484	0xa12d4f…
10-14 14:55:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	10,000	85¢	$8,470	0x0ddad6…
10-14 14:50:31	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	9,415	91¢	$8,568	0xec8f46…
10-13 19:15:58	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x0ba0aa…
10-13 18:16:12	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xd75402…
10-13 18:14:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	163	60¢	$98	0xe90ba6…
10-13 18:14:39	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x7aa746…
10-13 18:14:31	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xef2d06…
10-13 18:13:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	204	54¢	$109	0x002247…
10-12 06:16:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	244	84¢	$205	0xa16f24…
10-12 06:16:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	252	62¢	$157	0x8b5bf4…
10-10 17:13:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x5e48b0…
10-10 17:12:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	672	74¢	$496	0x6ba49b…
10-10 15:30:13	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17,783	23¢	$4,083	0x66c2dd…
10-10 13:56:25	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,022	53¢	$542	0xdaf300…
10-07 13:32:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	883	32¢	$282	0x3334d8…
10-07 10:44:15	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	945	34¢	$318	0x611704…
10-07 06:53:35	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	35	46¢	$16	0xfcddf3…
10-07 06:48:50	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	993	44¢	$435	0x1fad60…
10-07 05:28:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	374	70¢	$262	0x7135eb…
10-07 05:27:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,970	74¢	$1,453	0x960c0a…
10-05 07:06:55	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 10 2026	No	BUY	45	37¢	$17	0x2b6848…
10-03 10:58:00	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 24 2026	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xfda8c8…
10-03 10:57:27	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	No	BUY	121	24¢	$29	0x5137b1…
10-03 10:57:05	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 10 2026	No	BUY	461	47¢	$217	0x3a4327…
09-11 23:59:37	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	SELL	898	38¢	$341	0x1a7ad2…
09-11 18:05:54	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	Yes	BUY	929	18¢	$166	0x109e16…