Difficult-Purchase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$143

Hit rate

58.4%

Resolved

326

Trades

1,428

lifetime

Volume

$394.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$276

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 10-04 10:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Other

50% 34% -$12,568

Sports

26% 41% -$8,890

Politics

23% 49% -$998

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+5	-$440	98¢	$5	+$445	10-03 10:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+1	$338	88¢	$1	-$338	07-20 11:35
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+1	$76	6¢	$0	-$76	07-13 15:45
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+1	$0	3¢	$0	$0	07-24 19:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	+1	$175	0¢	$0	-$175	09-14 18:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$13.7K	9,985	9,985	+0	No	+$855	07-09 04:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	16	$12.0K	16,258	16,257	+1	open	—	07-20 11:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	5	$11.5K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$387	10-01 00:14
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	5	$10.5K	7,005	7,000	+5	open	—	10-03 10:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$8.7K	10,005	10,000	+5	No	-$1,651	09-11 13:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	12	$8.5K	8,000	7,999	+1	No	-$81	08-11 11:38
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	22	$7.7K	8,060	8,060	+0	Yes	-$502	06-04 01:56
Spread: Rams (-1.5)	5	$7.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	Broncos	+$1,383	09-28 03:45
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	38	$7.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$1,771	09-15 03:03
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	2	$6.7K	3,795	3,795	+0	No	+$721	07-16 17:26
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	19	$6.4K	10,422	7,437	+2,986	No	-$1,562	07-22 03:12
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	7	$6.3K	3,980	3,980	+0	No	+$636	07-14 19:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	6	$6.0K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	+$937	07-04 09:39
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	10	$5.4K	5,075	5,064	+11	No	+$6	08-17 13:04
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	2	$4.7K	3,000	2,999	+1	No	+$176	07-20 22:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	15	$4.5K	3,020	3,020	+0	No	+$524	05-30 03:59
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	30	$4.4K	5,782	5,782	+0	No	+$250	07-22 03:07
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	15	$4.3K	3,742	3,742	+0	Yes	+$1,615	06-12 14:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	6	$4.2K	3,000	2,999	+1	No	+$1,001	07-18 21:50
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	11	$4.1K	9,550	9,550	+0	No	-$1,402	06-30 21:43
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	10	$3.9K	4,857	1,939	+2,918	Yes	-$1,549	06-12 14:29
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	5	$3.5K	2,795	2,794	+1	No	+$1,343	08-10 07:17
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	15	$3.4K	3,610	3,610	+0	No	-$861	06-20 13:46
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	9	$3.3K	8,070	8,070	+0	No	-$762	07-31 16:57
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	5	$3.2K	2,688	2,688	+0	Yes	-$176	06-21 03:34
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	4	$3.1K	2,514	2,514	+0	No	-$126	07-14 21:24
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$3.0K	2,496	2,496	+0	Yes	+$1,547	05-30 18:00
Colts vs. Chiefs	5	$3.0K	3,400	2,000	+1,400	Chiefs	+$136	09-21 03:53
US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff	7	$3.0K	3,400	2,000	+1,400	Coco Gauff	-$308	09-09 20:31
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	3	$3.0K	1,974	1,974	+0	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	+$988	05-28 13:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 10:25:41	Sydney Roosters vs. Newcastle Knights	Newcastle Knights	BUY	1,000	3¢	$30	0xfc33c9…
10-04 08:44:26	Sydney Roosters vs. Newcastle Knights	Newcastle Knights	BUY	2,000	35¢	$703	0x4a111c…
10-03 10:11:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x4752bc…
10-03 06:21:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,852	79¢	$4,623	0x811268…
10-02 04:38:24	Spread: North Texas (-7.5)	North Texas	BUY	240	18¢	$43	0x232d51…
10-02 04:38:23	Spread: North Texas (-7.5)	North Texas	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xb1eadc…
10-02 04:38:23	Spread: North Texas (-7.5)	North Texas	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x8fe319…
10-02 04:38:23	Spread: North Texas (-7.5)	North Texas	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x5d0282…
10-02 04:38:23	Spread: North Texas (-7.5)	North Texas	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x37c4ef…
10-02 03:57:23	Spread: North Texas (-8.5)	North Texas	BUY	1,000	52¢	$515	0xc69c54…
10-02 03:18:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	798	75¢	$598	0x6d818a…
10-02 02:35:11	Steelers vs. Browns	Steelers	BUY	988	26¢	$257	0x7e1cb1…
10-02 02:32:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	350	75¢	$262	0xb64030…
10-02 01:24:39	Spread: North Texas (-2.5)	North Texas	BUY	874	62¢	$542	0x12fbec…
10-02 00:29:23	Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Steelers	BUY	2,000	56¢	$1,119	0x3e30e3…
10-02 00:29:05	Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Steelers	BUY	1,000	54¢	$540	0x0b22fb…
10-02 00:18:18	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	353	58¢	$205	0xfd459b…
10-02 00:18:18	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xf9a680…
10-02 00:18:18	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	95	58¢	$55	0x7840e5…
10-02 00:18:18	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	151	58¢	$88	0x003677…
10-02 00:18:17	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	250	58¢	$145	0x842a0c…
10-02 00:18:17	Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	BUY	51	58¢	$30	0x5bff9b…
10-01 02:22:35	mlb bos nyy 2026 09 30 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0xcc7b0c…
10-01 00:19:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,000	72¢	$5,040	0x7c8a8e…
10-01 00:14:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,350	100¢	$4,342	0x6183d3…
09-30 09:10:29	atp cerund bu 2026 09 29	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	BUY	1,000	42¢	$425	0xa0d5f0…
09-30 09:09:50	atp cerund bu 2026 09 29	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	BUY	1,000	42¢	$425	0x432169…
09-30 03:38:50	mlb chc sd 2026 09 29 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	1,000	55¢	$550	0x4a8582…
09-30 03:03:30	mlb bos nyy 2026 09 29 spread home 2pt5	New York Yankees	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0xb92542…
09-30 02:59:12	Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	500	49¢	$245	0x53150a…
09-30 02:52:08	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x41c5a0…
09-30 02:52:02	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0xcece23…
09-30 02:51:59	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x43f65e…
09-30 02:51:56	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0xbb677a…
09-30 02:51:51	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0x74055e…
09-30 02:51:47	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0x9e27e9…
09-30 02:51:42	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0xc55ca2…
09-30 02:51:41	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0xbfc123…
09-30 02:51:36	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x5e0092…
09-30 02:51:33	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0xed11a9…
09-30 02:51:32	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	146	4¢	$6	0x181125…
09-30 02:51:30	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x72879c…
09-30 02:51:29	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	92	4¢	$4	0x663f79…
09-30 02:51:27	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0xb20320…
09-30 02:51:27	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x9715a9…
09-30 02:51:27	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x744f53…
09-30 02:51:27	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x6aa5d2…
09-30 02:51:27	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x4d69d5…
09-30 02:51:26	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xd1c621…
09-30 02:51:26	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x29dcf6…
09-30 02:26:12	mlb chc sd 2026 09 29	Chicago Cubs	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0x19f2b1…
09-30 02:11:32	Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	708	56¢	$397	0xf35d5f…
09-30 02:11:29	Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	291	56¢	$163	0x335c56…
09-30 02:09:26	mlb bos nyy 2026 09 29 spread home 2pt5	New York Yankees	BUY	500	45¢	$225	0xdc145b…
09-30 01:25:26	mlb chc sd 2026 09 29	Chicago Cubs	BUY	400	45¢	$180	0x952070…
09-30 01:24:08	Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs	BUY	2,700	45¢	$1,215	0x03b56a…
09-30 00:03:20	mlb cws hou 2026 09 29	Houston Astros	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x3c8763…
09-29 23:19:29	mlb cws hou 2026 09 29 spread away 3pt5	Chicago White Sox	BUY	640	57¢	$365	0x6df56b…
09-29 23:19:27	mlb cws hou 2026 09 29 spread away 3pt5	Chicago White Sox	BUY	360	57¢	$205	0x6d6f63…
09-29 16:19:56	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x3bedde…
09-29 16:19:54	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x9edcb8…
09-29 16:19:53	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	2,691	31¢	$823	0x8e8dc8…
09-29 15:09:17	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	500	63¢	$313	0xd0245f…
09-29 15:04:02	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0xeaf4a1…
09-29 13:31:59	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	500	53¢	$266	0xb06849…
09-29 13:31:24	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	500	52¢	$260	0xa97dec…
09-29 12:00:15	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0x42d85f…
09-29 12:00:15	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	41	30¢	$12	0x2cefde…
09-29 12:00:11	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0x73f257…
09-29 12:00:11	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0x4b1bcb…
09-29 12:00:11	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0x3f8b1e…
09-29 12:00:09	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0xf7e835…
09-29 12:00:09	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0xa839ac…
09-29 12:00:09	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0x340082…
09-29 11:24:50	Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0xea0a92…
09-29 11:24:26	Will Australia win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$92	0x960e75…
09-29 11:21:17	Will Australia win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$74	0xb06121…
09-29 02:49:38	Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 37.5	Over	BUY	500	55¢	$275	0x148909…
09-29 02:44:15	Spread: Bears (-14.5)	Eagles	BUY	500	57¢	$285	0x2f533a…
09-29 02:36:50	Spread: Bears (-4.5)	Eagles	SELL	2,000	16¢	$320	0xd6abd5…
09-29 02:22:26	Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 44.5	Under	BUY	1,000	62¢	$619	0x8f44f7…
09-29 02:10:00	Spread: Bears (-4.5)	Eagles	BUY	2,000	57¢	$1,140	0x92b76f…
09-29 02:08:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,450	96¢	$1,399	0x21de15…
09-29 00:21:03	Spread: Eagles (-3.5)	Bears	BUY	5,000	59¢	$2,950	0x4fe4c7…
09-28 03:45:14	Spread: Rams (-1.5)	Broncos	SELL	5,000	85¢	$4,231	0x0dc6b7…
09-28 00:46:30	Spread: Rams (-3.5)	Broncos	BUY	1,400	53¢	$742	0x1b6577…
09-28 00:32:11	Spread: Rams (-1.5)	Broncos	BUY	225	56¢	$126	0x37191f…
09-28 00:31:18	Spread: Rams (-1.5)	Broncos	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x68bac2…
09-28 00:31:06	Spread: Rams (-1.5)	Broncos	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x45abc3…
09-28 00:31:02	Spread: Rams (-1.5)	Broncos	BUY	4,769	57¢	$2,718	0x4c21cf…
09-27 23:37:36	Raiders vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x896445…
09-27 23:37:35	Raiders vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	400	8¢	$31	0x0501a6…
09-27 23:37:33	Raiders vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	599	8¢	$47	0x5c4fb3…
09-27 02:28:44	ufc rao rau2 2026 09 26	Raoni Barcelos	BUY	1,500	64¢	$960	0x7fd78c…
09-27 00:53:57	Oregon vs. USC	Oregon	BUY	3,000	53¢	$1,590	0x89ea8b…
09-26 17:40:29	Texas vs. Tennessee: O/U 55.5	Under	SELL	1,500	90¢	$1,350	0x798446…
09-26 17:09:44	Spread: Texas (-14.5)	Tennessee	BUY	1,000	60¢	$600	0x878a13…
09-26 16:06:06	Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: O/U 45.5	Under	BUY	1,500	59¢	$883	0x204989…
09-26 16:03:42	Spread: Kentucky (-21.5)	South Alabama	BUY	1,500	55¢	$825	0xb12c23…
09-26 16:02:53	Texas vs. Tennessee: O/U 55.5	Under	BUY	1,500	55¢	$825	0xcc86d6…