Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

55.5%

Resolved

125

Trades

250

lifetime

Volume

$800

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

3 positions

First seen

2026-09-10

last 10-30 09:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 25% -$20

Politics

32% 17% +$8

Other

22% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+17	$10	80¢	$13	+$3	10-20 18:25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+134	$8	1¢	$1	-$7	10-23 07:51
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	10-23 07:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	3	$96	479	0	+479	open	—	10-30 09:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	5	$92	1,881	1,881	+0	open	—	10-23 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	3	$87	108	108	+0	Up	+$83	09-20 20:39
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	2	$75	69	69	+0	No	+$60	10-20 00:27
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	2	$32	428	428	+0	open	—	10-20 01:45
Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?	1	$30	250	0	+250	Yes	-$30	10-20 20:38
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	3	$22	802	802	+0	open	—	10-20 08:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	2	$21	217	139	+78	No	+$1	10-23 23:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	3	$18	167	167	+0	Yes	-$2	10-24 00:00
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention?	1	$10	256	0	+256	No	-$10	09-10 16:04
Will Trump say "Gay" during RNC Convention?	1	$10	111	0	+111	No	-$10	09-10 14:56
Will XXXTentacion be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	10-18 22:23
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	10-20 18:25
Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention?	1	$10	43	0	+43	No	-$10	09-10 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 07:20 UTC	3	$10	10	10	+0	Up	+$6	09-20 07:23
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	4	$9	135	0	+135	open	—	10-23 07:51
Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	1	$9	150	0	+150	open	—	10-24 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	4	$8	27	27	+0	Down	+$0	09-20 19:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	7	$8	116	16	+100	Up	+$0	09-26 15:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	5	$7	40	40	+0	Up	+$1	09-20 19:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 20:15 UTC	2	$6	13	13	+0	Up	+$2	09-24 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	3	$6	105	5	+100	Up	+$2	09-23 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	4	$5	9	9	+0	Down	-$1	09-20 11:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:40 UTC	3	$5	250	0	+250	Up	-$5	09-26 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	09-20 20:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 07:30 UTC	3	$5	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	09-20 07:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 22:35 UTC	4	$4	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	09-21 22:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	2	$4	107	0	+107	Down	-$4	10-10 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$4	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	09-20 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 14:40 UTC	4	$4	102	31	+71	Up	$0	09-27 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:31:31	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	BUY	83	20¢	$17	0xcde176…
10-30 09:30:49	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0x9155a1…
10-30 09:30:33	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	BUY	96	20¢	$19	0x9bb27d…
10-27 13:40:21	Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0xd30add…
10-26 09:49:50	Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x5df624…
10-24 13:49:36	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x031540…
10-24 00:00:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0xc04fd2…
10-24 00:00:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	109	5¢	$5	0x990a9b…
10-23 23:58:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	SELL	139	8¢	$11	0x54f1ab…
10-23 23:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x6dd238…
10-23 23:34:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe6f349…
10-23 23:32:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	217	5¢	$10	0xa06a87…
10-23 13:19:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,784	3¢	$46	0x61ebd1…
10-23 13:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x6a304f…
10-23 11:45:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x79c98b…
10-23 07:51:50	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x487deb…
10-23 07:51:33	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xa26db1…
10-23 07:51:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1af648…
10-23 07:51:03	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1cd106…
10-23 07:44:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,035	2¢	$25	0xaa780a…
10-22 07:39:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	2¢	$15	0xf1a0cd…
10-21 22:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0xc348d0…
10-21 22:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4c0df0…
10-21 08:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xee738b…
10-20 20:38:36	Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x336912…
10-20 18:25:29	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xadef03…
10-20 17:50:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xcbac83…
10-20 08:49:47	France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	424	2¢	$6	0xf26112…
10-20 06:58:19	France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	378	1¢	$6	0x88853e…
10-20 01:45:18	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	428	4¢	$15	0x962f56…
10-20 01:44:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	3¢	$3	0x94a2e6…
10-20 00:27:45	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0xfbf1f7…
10-18 23:20:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	3¢	$2	0x5a0f49…
10-18 22:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5fcde1…
10-18 22:23:03	Will XXXTentacion be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x16d97f…
10-18 22:20:56	Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x4d039d…
10-18 22:18:00	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	69	11¢	$8	0x36997e…
10-18 21:52:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x1ca153…
10-18 21:52:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x19d74c…
10-18 21:52:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xacb85a…
10-18 21:23:11	France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	802	1¢	$10	0xe01bc9…
10-18 19:49:45	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	428	4¢	$17	0xe6cf0a…
10-18 19:44:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	240	0¢	$1	0xaed023…
10-17 10:29:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	No	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xc92b2f…
10-11 13:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0a923e…
10-10 11:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x528893…
10-10 11:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x876eb2…
10-10 11:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd3dffd…
10-10 00:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xd682c6…
10-10 00:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe67484…
10-10 00:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x3c1113…
10-10 00:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x98d409…
10-10 00:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xa66c0e…
10-10 00:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0e3380…
10-09 23:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x680a78…
10-09 23:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xca421b…
09-27 23:04:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1bc80d…
09-27 19:45:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x702701…
09-27 19:03:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6c1b06…
09-27 14:44:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 14:40 UTC	Down	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xf79b82…
09-27 14:43:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe5eed6…
09-27 14:41:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 14:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xf37d56…
09-27 14:40:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa3dede…
09-26 20:09:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd3ba2c…
09-26 19:59:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1cf4a1…
09-26 19:52:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe40be3…
09-26 19:49:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x65fe21…
09-26 19:48:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x19a6b2…
09-26 19:43:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcea71e…
09-26 19:43:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe0efbb…
09-26 19:43:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x4a681a…
09-26 19:29:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2d3438…
09-26 19:24:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x744536…
09-26 19:22:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:20 UTC	Up	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x56437e…
09-26 19:21:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0e9f0c…
09-26 19:19:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1f4c48…
09-26 19:18:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xedabfe…
09-26 19:14:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xde91e7…
09-26 19:13:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x73309e…
09-26 19:09:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5b7283…
09-26 19:08:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xcd259a…
09-26 19:04:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x369ddd…
09-26 19:03:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0xcc1c44…
09-26 18:54:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xafa58d…
09-26 18:54:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xecf02b…
09-26 18:38:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x11d568…
09-26 18:38:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x8b4d8f…
09-26 18:37:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x170fe3…
09-26 18:35:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1cce25…
09-26 15:19:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xa478da…
09-26 15:18:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x64abd5…
09-26 15:15:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6760f8…
09-26 15:13:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x4b57c4…
09-26 15:13:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xd57dda…
09-26 15:13:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x8c4c2b…
09-26 15:13:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xcb1f44…
09-26 15:13:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe92b38…
09-26 15:12:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb3fb17…
09-25 07:47:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x43c21f…
09-24 21:58:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 21:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x909375…