Short-Term-Programme — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

88.2%

Resolved

Trades

317

lifetime

Volume

$8.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-05 21:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 0% $-6

Other

40% 100% +$5

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+250	$13	4¢	$10	$-2	06-05 15:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	3	$720	400	400	+0	open	—	04-21 12:57
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	27	$491	3,526	3,526	+0	open	—	04-30 17:12
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	2	$456	281	281	+0	open	—	04-07 22:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$387	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 05:51
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	9	$336	368	168	+200	open	—	04-22 07:12
us forces seize another oil tanker by march 31	5	$321	196	196	+0	open	—	03-29 19:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$276	877	877	+0	open	—	04-07 20:13
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	12	$274	1,289	1,289	+0	open	—	03-30 02:22
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$263	450	450	+0	open	—	03-23 11:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	9	$222	600	600	+0	open	—	03-26 20:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$214	196	196	+0	open	—	04-02 01:23
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?	5	$204	316	0	+316	open	—	04-10 08:33
AWS service disrupted by April 30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	05-01 09:51
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$198	204	204	+0	open	—	04-18 22:34
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	2	$194	200	0	+200	open	—	04-09 23:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$182	190	190	+0	open	—	05-07 13:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$176	180	0	+180	open	—	04-05 15:18
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	6	$168	208	208	+0	open	—	04-18 22:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$164	438	0	+438	open	—	04-24 12:13
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 31	7	$143	473	0	+473	open	—	03-28 10:16
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$119	953	973	-20	open	—	05-20 09:15
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	4	$117	65	65	+0	open	—	03-15 16:48
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	05-14 15:59
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	1	$92	100	0	+100	open	—	04-20 00:35
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	1	$88	196	0	+196	open	—	04-14 11:23
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$87	2,982	2,982	+0	open	—	04-30 00:48
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$83	100	100	+0	open	—	05-17 13:16
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$77	90	90	+0	open	—	05-17 11:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	5	$74	220	220	+0	open	—	03-21 20:39
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$70	370	0	+370	open	—	02-27 23:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 21:34:52	will trump say fuel during wisconsin events 20260602174202008	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xfca89e…
06-05 15:38:03	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	5¢	$6	0xa7ca87…
06-05 15:26:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x3dcf53…
06-05 14:28:55	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xe9816a…
06-05 10:12:27	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	5¢	$2	0x0e7864…
06-05 01:51:06	will trump say fuel during wisconsin events 20260602174202008	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x178af1…
06-04 19:30:48	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xc06323…
06-01 08:59:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6ad05a…
05-31 10:19:30	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x47d47e…
05-29 11:15:35	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x56110e…
05-29 11:13:06	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xdac208…
05-28 09:29:55	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x8ccf89…
05-27 14:55:29	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe16e8f…
05-27 13:20:47	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4c0b06…
05-25 23:28:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	40	1¢	$1	0xcb1c11…
05-25 23:08:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x4694cd…
05-25 23:06:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xb7c2a9…
05-25 12:24:53	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x11f15b…
05-23 23:22:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	56¢	$19	0x1ad984…
05-23 23:04:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xfef903…
05-23 20:28:51	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x70a4c1…
05-23 14:20:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xbdfdca…
05-21 20:47:43	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0x410afe…
05-21 19:13:09	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf43eb5…
05-20 10:11:34	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x16cee0…
05-20 09:15:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd045de…
05-17 22:53:04	Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xe5a42d…
05-17 22:32:02	Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xb392de…
05-17 13:16:49	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xd9e822…
05-17 13:15:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	973	3¢	$25	0x7d48ce…
05-17 11:12:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0xa0fd28…
05-15 23:15:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0xeacddf…
05-15 23:14:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	638	5¢	$30	0xd5ebec…
05-15 23:05:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x2ea871…
05-15 22:50:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xab08fe…
05-15 22:50:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x25fa1a…
05-15 13:48:47	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x81f43f…
05-15 12:01:11	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xda2adf…
05-15 11:42:29	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x62f861…
05-15 11:42:01	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	37	81¢	$29	0x2d538f…
05-15 11:38:14	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	90	83¢	$75	0x915422…
05-14 23:32:04	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	24	22¢	$5	0xf7588c…
05-14 15:59:06	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x15bee0…
05-14 11:05:48	Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x74baad…
05-13 10:53:24	UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xddf18a…
05-13 10:52:05	UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xd0c39b…
05-11 08:29:01	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x30b13e…
05-07 15:29:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xb98787…
05-07 13:17:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	48¢	$91	0x4501d5…
05-06 22:21:37	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xaa55f5…
05-06 14:57:46	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x42fa17…
05-04 13:38:38	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xba3bcc…
05-02 11:03:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	3¢	$4	0x19869c…
05-02 05:13:34	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x3b2e55…
05-01 23:23:04	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x2753f3…
05-01 21:59:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	107	3¢	$3	0xb7c3a8…
05-01 21:58:40	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x9d503c…
05-01 21:27:02	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x851179…
05-01 21:26:58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	138	5¢	$7	0x413e34…
05-01 21:11:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	180	7¢	$12	0x339f58…
05-01 21:11:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	180	8¢	$15	0x5ee93c…
05-01 15:50:22	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xae1b6b…
05-01 11:52:52	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x906d34…
05-01 11:39:20	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x407d5a…
05-01 11:37:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xea601f…
05-01 09:51:12	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xf25356…
05-01 07:47:44	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xddc1f7…
05-01 07:35:08	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xb49195…
04-30 20:05:42	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x83a952…
04-30 18:29:30	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	426	4¢	$19	0xe45c45…
04-30 18:15:30	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$7	0xcd78e8…
04-30 18:11:48	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	5¢	$5	0xe6fd29…
04-30 18:11:26	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0xb5a676…
04-30 18:10:56	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x772956…
04-30 17:57:46	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0x4d54a3…
04-30 17:57:44	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x8928ee…
04-30 17:57:44	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x15df1f…
04-30 17:50:06	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x586cf5…
04-30 17:41:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x493918…
04-30 17:36:54	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x002b4d…
04-30 17:35:52	Will Trump talk to Ahmed al-Sharaa in April?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x773ef2…
04-30 17:12:28	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	SELL	2,200	2¢	$40	0x214837…
04-30 17:05:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xec6c6d…
04-30 03:29:00	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	2,091	2¢	$31	0x3e7e54…
04-30 02:51:06	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x4fd067…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xe7b4c7…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xdefe49…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xad0432…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa8e44f…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xa8a5ee…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xa05fa5…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x8f7b04…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x81d36f…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x5ebb4d…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x300d60…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x13fa80…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x081161…
04-30 02:51:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x02d9a2…
04-30 02:51:02	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf10ecd…
04-30 02:51:02	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3c17c1…