Happy-Go-Lucky-Tolerant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,056

lifetime

Volume

$77.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 05-24 11:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

47% — —

Politics

36% 100% +$6

Tech

18% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	66	$6.3K	3,513	3,174	+339	open	—	04-27 10:00
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	87	$5.7K	3,145	2,807	+338	open	—	04-28 10:00
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	50	$5.0K	2,551	2,551	+0	open	—	04-15 08:37
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	38	$4.3K	2,334	1,997	+337	open	—	04-23 10:00
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	42	$4.3K	2,341	2,004	+337	open	—	04-23 10:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	17	$4.1K	2,534	2,534	+0	open	—	04-15 12:59
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	18	$3.4K	2,273	2,273	+0	open	—	04-15 12:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	28	$3.3K	1,714	1,712	+2	open	—	04-16 11:14
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	26	$3.3K	1,783	1,782	+0	open	—	04-16 11:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	24	$3.1K	1,605	1,602	+3	open	—	04-16 11:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	16	$2.6K	1,348	1,348	+0	open	—	04-15 11:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	15	$2.6K	1,304	1,303	+1	open	—	04-15 11:13
GTA VI released before June 2026?	19	$1.7K	965	772	+193	open	—	05-24 11:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	46	$1.5K	968	629	+340	open	—	04-28 10:00
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	27	$1.3K	653	653	+0	open	—	03-23 08:13
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	33	$1.2K	765	494	+271	open	—	03-31 11:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	24	$1.2K	785	453	+332	open	—	04-27 10:00
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	24	$1.2K	786	449	+337	open	—	04-23 10:00
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	25	$1.2K	783	451	+332	open	—	04-27 10:00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	23	$1.2K	785	448	+337	open	—	04-23 10:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	23	$1.1K	709	372	+337	open	—	04-23 10:00
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	22	$1.0K	656	384	+272	open	—	03-31 11:14
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	9	$867	909	15	+895	open	—	03-15 08:03
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	9	$863	873	21	+852	open	—	03-15 08:00
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	13	$849	873	10	+862	open	—	03-15 08:00
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	16	$769	395	395	+0	open	—	03-27 11:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$766	395	395	+0	open	—	04-16 11:14
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	11	$766	404	404	+0	open	—	04-16 11:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	10	$762	413	411	+1	open	—	04-16 11:14
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	18	$760	402	402	+0	open	—	03-27 11:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-24 11:18:17	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	483	100¢	$482	0x7d7dbd…
05-23 09:47:00	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x745d40…
05-23 09:36:35	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xf84969…
05-23 09:26:09	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x6a75c8…
05-23 09:20:57	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xa620d9…
05-23 09:10:31	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xf18b89…
05-23 09:00:08	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x5d0e4a…
05-18 09:00:05	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xb64ea3…
05-17 09:50:38	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x44750c…
05-17 09:47:36	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x9b0140…
05-17 09:42:18	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0xad517a…
05-17 09:37:06	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x008562…
05-17 09:31:55	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x526180…
05-17 09:26:41	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x13ec3a…
05-17 09:21:30	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x9fae54…
05-17 09:16:17	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0xa0a3d8…
05-17 09:11:07	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0xab49ce…
05-17 09:05:54	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x2ca079…
05-17 09:00:42	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0xc7f3f5…
04-28 10:00:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x30d802…
04-28 10:00:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x088082…
04-27 10:48:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xeb1152…
04-27 10:48:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x55bdc8…
04-27 10:43:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0x84f7c7…
04-27 10:43:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x0d3e2c…
04-27 10:37:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x99d3dd…
04-27 10:37:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0x7e8390…
04-27 10:32:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x8fbfc5…
04-27 10:32:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x23ea99…
04-27 10:26:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xd241b6…
04-27 10:26:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x777cc9…
04-27 10:21:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x49bb67…
04-27 10:21:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x98e05e…
04-27 10:16:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xa46f90…
04-27 10:16:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x958307…
04-27 10:10:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x0d9761…
04-27 10:10:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x8e734d…
04-27 10:05:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x6ca170…
04-27 10:05:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xeca863…
04-27 10:00:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd82605…
04-27 10:00:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd3d36e…
04-27 10:00:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa68926…
04-27 10:00:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xa52f92…
04-27 10:00:20	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5f579f…
04-27 10:00:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4f0bdc…
04-27 10:00:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x37357d…
04-27 10:00:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x09a1f8…
04-23 10:11:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	114	99¢	$113	0xe19a48…
04-23 10:08:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0x561e2c…
04-23 10:05:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xe3518b…
04-23 10:00:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xfde375…
04-23 10:00:20	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe708e1…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0xca07b3…
04-23 10:00:20	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xc0ea35…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xa847ec…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xa6476f…
04-23 10:00:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	23	69¢	$16	0x98292f…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0x825b94…
04-23 10:00:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x755f36…
04-23 10:00:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x746f52…
04-23 10:00:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x546f99…
04-23 10:00:20	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x433eb1…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3eb01e…
04-23 10:00:20	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x0e0d9e…
04-23 10:00:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x08cf1c…
04-22 10:11:42	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	122	99¢	$120	0xfe26b2…
04-22 10:08:40	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xe626fb…
04-22 10:05:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xf8f1e6…
04-22 10:05:38	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x654a62…
04-22 10:00:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xe21130…
04-22 10:00:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$29	0xdb0d7d…
04-22 10:00:20	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd23bdd…
04-22 10:00:20	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xc1264b…
04-22 10:00:20	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xb7aca5…
04-22 10:00:20	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x521811…
04-22 10:00:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x37e7db…
04-22 10:00:20	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x33d023…
04-22 10:00:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x164f05…
04-22 10:00:20	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x11b89f…
04-22 10:00:20	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x09f1fb…
04-22 10:00:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x026e8e…
04-21 10:47:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x468cd5…
04-21 10:47:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$8	0x418462…
04-21 10:42:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x031b93…
04-21 10:42:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$8	0xcb15da…
04-21 10:37:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xef4b3f…
04-21 10:37:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x099a37…
04-21 10:32:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x485c7e…
04-21 10:32:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xfb9fc2…
04-21 10:26:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$8	0xe7fc95…
04-21 10:26:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0xd8053b…
04-21 10:21:44	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0xae9163…
04-21 10:21:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x5d6467…
04-21 10:16:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x7480f4…
04-21 10:16:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x6c2320…
04-21 10:11:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0xcb9b14…
04-21 10:11:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x6b64cf…
04-21 10:06:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0xb30b87…
04-21 10:06:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x28d4e9…
04-21 10:00:46	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xff7c57…