Austere-Truth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.38K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved

959

Trades

20,579

lifetime

Volume

$1.35M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-02 11:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Other

63% 93% -$68

Politics

20% 96% -$1,589

Crypto

13% 94% +$205

Tech

3% 92% +$57

Sports

1% 92% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	05-18 15:49
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	+3	$3	100¢	$3	+$0	07-07 14:01
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	08-09 19:28
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	07-22 17:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	332	$22.3K	13,171	9,497	+3,674	Yes	+$77	04-12 21:17
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	226	$16.8K	9,507	7,485	+2,021	No	+$29	03-29 04:06
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	186	$15.9K	8,626	7,533	+1,093	No	+$27	03-29 18:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	167	$15.6K	8,848	6,991	+1,857	No	+$45	04-15 11:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	185	$15.0K	8,322	6,906	+1,415	No	+$26	04-15 18:01
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	216	$14.0K	7,235	6,944	+291	No	+$15	04-09 10:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	134	$14.0K	7,836	6,286	+1,550	No	+$22	03-31 06:12
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	145	$13.1K	7,650	5,639	+2,012	No	+$25	03-30 17:25
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	211	$12.3K	7,128	5,392	+1,735	No	+$31	04-21 20:18
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	146	$11.7K	6,594	5,328	+1,266	No	+$20	03-29 01:46
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	134	$11.6K	6,479	5,298	+1,181	No	+$18	03-30 04:22
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	142	$11.5K	6,957	4,731	+2,227	No	+$26	03-30 12:22
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	197	$11.0K	5,995	5,124	+871	Yes	+$11	03-30 17:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	147	$10.7K	6,407	4,478	+1,929	Yes	-$1,888	04-06 20:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	153	$10.7K	6,109	4,765	+1,344	Yes	+$31	04-20 10:53
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	109	$10.2K	6,615	3,727	+2,888	Yes	+$38	03-24 13:49
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	122	$10.2K	5,901	4,347	+1,553	No	+$16	03-31 20:12
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	101	$10.0K	5,563	4,480	+1,082	No	+$10	03-29 09:46
Netanyahu out by April 30?	134	$9.9K	5,777	4,323	+1,454	No	+$25	04-20 10:54
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	144	$9.5K	4,847	4,775	+72	No	+$11	03-26 07:38
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	121	$9.2K	5,026	4,292	+734	No	+$19	03-28 07:10
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	131	$8.9K	4,709	4,294	+415	No	+$12	02-27 12:53
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	131	$8.9K	4,821	4,105	+716	No	+$15	04-12 18:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	114	$8.9K	4,961	4,006	+955	No	+$16	04-20 19:32
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	77	$8.4K	4,629	3,891	+738	No	+$17	03-18 13:50
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	99	$8.2K	4,181	4,181	+0	No	+$4	03-23 12:23
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	108	$8.2K	4,637	3,664	+973	No	+$16	03-30 13:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	91	$8.1K	4,870	3,329	+1,542	No	+$21	04-14 07:37
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	90	$7.8K	4,042	3,895	+147	Yes	+$5	03-18 13:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	142	$7.7K	4,401	3,405	+996	No	+$12	04-20 10:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 11:03:53	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0xee59d0…
10-02 11:03:47	Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	No	SELL	48	85¢	$41	0xa84c3c…
10-02 11:03:33	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0x070dc2…
09-07 00:28:19	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7ee314…
09-05 21:59:28	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x15832d…
09-04 10:12:09	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x4c890d…
08-28 14:29:54	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x456957…
08-28 14:17:45	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x8c4a05…
08-18 22:35:13	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xba3fb9…
08-18 12:09:21	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x76b6ca…
08-10 17:09:55	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9ea4c6…
08-10 15:31:49	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xdff95a…
08-10 14:32:57	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xbf053a…
08-10 14:32:34	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xb662ef…
08-10 09:03:31	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7cddb1…
08-10 09:02:42	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0x509791…
08-10 08:42:01	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xcff52e…
08-10 08:33:55	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7686ce…
08-09 19:28:57	Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x0fc5c6…
08-09 19:28:24	Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc6b4f5…
08-09 17:26:24	Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb2e6f2…
08-09 17:09:54	Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd2215b…
08-04 01:07:45	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd05d74…
07-30 02:05:32	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x8ae068…
07-30 00:42:39	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x5a55bf…
07-30 00:42:14	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd634cf…
07-29 23:42:26	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa0b192…
07-29 18:00:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x6a48b3…
07-29 15:18:20	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xab68cf…
07-27 14:42:36	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0fa6e5…
07-27 08:07:13	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x9ec644…
07-27 00:08:52	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x4e30e4…
07-26 23:08:33	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xec0836…
07-26 21:18:24	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x04b9bc…
07-26 21:16:16	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3663aa…
07-26 21:14:10	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2d8701…
07-26 21:12:04	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x066587…
07-26 00:55:46	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe7738a…
07-24 11:47:21	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x0be38f…
07-23 07:23:03	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x970ffd…
07-22 17:22:19	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x9f13ce…
07-22 17:21:25	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x53dfbe…
07-22 17:21:22	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7bed29…
07-22 17:21:22	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x5aff42…
07-22 08:10:54	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9093c2…
07-22 08:10:42	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc95109…
07-22 08:10:30	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x86aa4d…
07-20 10:39:51	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf70b68…
07-20 10:39:51	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x31bb07…
07-20 10:39:51	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x31a4c2…
07-20 10:39:00	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x885354…
07-20 10:39:00	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x63055c…
07-20 10:38:57	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb83dd4…
07-20 10:38:57	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x704ba1…
07-20 10:38:57	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4c85ef…
07-20 10:37:57	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xee416c…
07-20 10:37:55	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x82b8f9…
07-20 07:11:39	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xc495df…
07-20 06:19:07	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x87be95…
07-19 22:43:36	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7f0ac1…
07-19 22:43:24	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x23a125…
07-19 17:18:36	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1cc2dd…
07-19 17:17:06	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x780d76…
07-16 14:31:07	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xbff6d3…
07-16 13:11:41	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd75211…
07-16 11:47:37	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xf60e9e…
07-16 11:46:25	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x0909fb…
07-16 11:34:47	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xb26760…
07-16 11:34:47	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x11445b…
07-15 18:00:08	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xdad4a7…
07-15 15:31:25	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7125a3…
07-15 15:30:52	Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x0b99a7…
07-15 13:56:52	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa2053a…
07-09 22:41:08	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xbd0c05…
07-08 14:42:07	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x1264ab…
07-08 04:02:38	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf0ce68…
07-07 14:01:41	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x383169…
07-07 12:45:19	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0fde38…
07-07 10:39:49	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x92eb46…
07-07 01:46:49	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x330702…
07-07 01:46:32	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xec3658…
07-06 21:27:25	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdc2060…
07-06 21:02:22	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xaf4071…
07-06 19:23:52	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7a9864…
07-06 12:02:34	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5c3fc5…
07-06 10:30:40	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x005568…
07-06 09:49:38	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6b1b01…
07-06 09:48:44	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x92c5af…
07-06 09:42:16	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4e06d2…
07-06 09:42:14	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0d8167…
07-06 09:35:34	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd57014…
07-06 09:35:28	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x486ec9…
07-06 09:29:02	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x14a7e9…
07-06 09:11:20	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb8bc90…
07-06 09:11:07	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x161799…
07-06 08:47:25	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x026ab5…
07-06 08:47:20	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd9e124…
07-06 08:47:16	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c01cf…
07-06 07:54:14	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x67ffe2…
07-06 07:13:08	Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x1ce77d…