Austere-Truth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

19,141

lifetime

Volume

$1.32M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$492

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 06-30 09:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% 100% +$23

Politics

20% — —

Crypto

14% 100% +$0

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 489 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+421	$411	100¢	$420	+$10	06-30 00:20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+73	$72	98¢	$72	+$0	06-27 04:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	332	$22.3K	13,171	9,497	+3,674	open	—	04-12 21:17
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	226	$16.8K	9,507	7,485	+2,021	open	—	03-29 04:06
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	186	$15.9K	8,626	7,533	+1,093	open	—	03-29 18:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	167	$15.6K	8,848	6,991	+1,857	open	—	04-15 11:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	185	$15.0K	8,322	6,906	+1,415	open	—	04-15 18:01
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	216	$14.0K	7,235	6,944	+291	open	—	04-09 10:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	134	$14.0K	7,836	6,286	+1,550	open	—	03-31 06:12
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	145	$13.1K	7,650	5,639	+2,012	open	—	03-30 17:25
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	211	$12.3K	7,128	5,392	+1,735	open	—	04-21 20:18
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	146	$11.7K	6,594	5,328	+1,266	open	—	03-29 01:46
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	134	$11.6K	6,479	5,298	+1,181	open	—	03-30 04:22
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	142	$11.5K	6,957	4,731	+2,227	open	—	03-30 12:22
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	197	$11.0K	5,995	5,124	+871	open	—	03-30 17:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	147	$10.7K	6,407	4,478	+1,929	open	—	04-06 20:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	153	$10.7K	6,109	4,765	+1,344	open	—	04-20 10:53
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	109	$10.2K	6,615	3,727	+2,888	open	—	03-24 13:49
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	122	$10.2K	5,901	4,347	+1,553	open	—	03-31 20:12
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	101	$10.0K	5,563	4,480	+1,082	open	—	03-29 09:46
Netanyahu out by April 30?	134	$9.9K	5,777	4,323	+1,454	open	—	04-20 10:54
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	144	$9.5K	4,847	4,775	+72	open	—	03-26 07:38
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	121	$9.2K	5,026	4,292	+734	open	—	03-28 07:10
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	131	$8.9K	4,709	4,294	+415	open	—	02-27 12:53
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	131	$8.9K	4,821	4,105	+716	open	—	04-12 18:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	114	$8.9K	4,961	4,006	+955	open	—	04-20 19:32
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	77	$8.4K	4,629	3,891	+738	open	—	03-18 13:50
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	99	$8.2K	4,181	4,181	+0	open	—	03-23 12:23
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	108	$8.2K	4,637	3,664	+973	open	—	03-30 13:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	91	$8.1K	4,870	3,329	+1,542	open	—	04-14 07:37
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	90	$7.8K	4,042	3,895	+147	open	—	03-18 13:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	142	$7.7K	4,401	3,405	+996	open	—	04-20 10:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 09:15:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x42b703…
06-30 00:20:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd4533a…
06-30 00:18:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x6021bd…
06-29 19:17:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xbc758a…
06-29 17:56:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xff44cd…
06-29 17:50:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x73e9dd…
06-29 17:26:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x489591…
06-29 17:20:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa1a107…
06-29 17:04:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xcfc4af…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xbde9e8…
06-29 13:53:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7f5228…
06-29 13:52:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xfd70d3…
06-29 13:51:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xf9c350…
06-29 13:51:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xa7a330…
06-29 13:45:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x714974…
06-29 13:43:53	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xcf5641…
06-29 13:40:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x857181…
06-29 13:30:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xc7d529…
06-29 13:28:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x92ad3c…
06-29 13:25:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa0bc99…
06-29 13:18:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0xd88b73…
06-29 13:17:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0xcea6e4…
06-29 13:16:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xfcfc1a…
06-29 13:10:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x6a7c0e…
06-29 13:09:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x358d24…
06-29 12:50:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	98¢	$72	0xd662e7…
06-29 12:21:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x3e4226…
06-29 12:20:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$21	0xc1c992…
06-29 12:19:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x54ebbd…
06-29 12:17:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x220cfd…
06-29 11:32:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0xcd4fd4…
06-29 11:26:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xcf7cbb…
06-29 11:20:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x323773…
06-29 11:13:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x1ce52b…
06-29 09:50:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x9d7d46…
06-29 09:50:25	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x737ba4…
06-29 09:45:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x848de2…
06-29 09:27:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0xcc4b6d…
06-29 08:34:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x34f8a0…
06-29 08:26:43	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x831414…
06-29 08:21:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xae3274…
06-29 08:18:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	98¢	$71	0x519a6e…
06-29 08:12:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeff9f0…
06-29 08:02:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x3ccb45…
06-29 08:02:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x3720f1…
06-29 08:01:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xfbd073…
06-29 08:01:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x89fadb…
06-29 07:56:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xd01ef1…
06-29 07:47:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xc6603f…
06-29 07:47:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x25cab3…
06-29 07:46:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x77feb9…
06-29 07:37:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xed0f63…
06-29 07:32:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xc3bcbe…
06-29 06:25:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0xd3897e…
06-29 06:25:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x7b9753…
06-29 06:25:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x836747…
06-29 06:06:34	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xa9fda3…
06-29 06:06:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x23cc94…
06-29 06:02:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x44126b…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf08fda…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x8b3b00…
06-29 03:50:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xcb3760…
06-29 03:46:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x7a00cc…
06-29 03:28:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x027be4…
06-29 02:10:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$25	0xe78eda…
06-29 02:06:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xaf68bc…
06-29 02:05:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x609118…
06-29 02:00:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x73285e…
06-29 01:43:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0xc5427f…
06-29 01:43:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x466db2…
06-29 01:38:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x86e5ee…
06-29 01:36:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0xb5ee0f…
06-29 01:34:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x54e54b…
06-29 01:06:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xf4f347…
06-29 00:23:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x6f1610…
06-29 00:18:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x0d0fb2…
06-29 00:17:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xd5218e…
06-29 00:15:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xd9f679…
06-29 00:07:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x6f7696…
06-28 22:37:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc7dc0d…
06-28 22:37:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xe31058…
06-28 22:33:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x8869a2…
06-28 22:23:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xe381b2…
06-28 22:19:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x359068…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x46296f…
06-28 18:07:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x7cd1d8…
06-28 17:54:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0xdac4a0…
06-28 17:34:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xb3a162…
06-28 17:22:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0xbc5ed6…
06-28 17:05:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xbce2bc…
06-28 16:55:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x7dff73…
06-28 16:29:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x6ba807…
06-28 16:11:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x278944…
06-28 16:09:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x492f7e…
06-28 16:02:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x2965dd…
06-28 15:58:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0xa15097…
06-28 15:55:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xd92abb…
06-28 15:55:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x3a8ebb…
06-28 15:40:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x2c056c…